Has North Korea lost its collective mind?

Given the bellicose threats made by global pariah Kim Jong-In, many have speculated whether NK's dictatorship is truly prepared to fight U.S. forces. For the reasons I will provide, I do not believe NK is in a position to challenge American domination of the region.

Although the rogue state possesses a significant number of MLRS/artillery emplacements, our kill chain for these threats is very simple: track the shells, and fire massive amounts of ordnance at the launch location. Conventional and asymmetric (cyber, elwar, etc) abilities aside, there is one massive weapon in the U.S. arsenal that ensures the communist regime is unable to carry out its threats.

Ohio class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs, aka "boomers") carry a compliment of 24 Trident II D5 SLBMs, each carrying up to 12 MIRV'd (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) nuclear warheads + penetration aids. There are 18 such boats, with several SSGN (guided missile vs. ballistic) variants carrying up to 154 tomahawk cruise missiles.

These ultra quiet submarines patrol the oceans, optionally in close proximity to a nation's shoreline. From these positions, these difficult to detect submarines fire their missiles giving the targets as little as 2 minutes to prepare a retaliatory strike - creating a high probability of 1st strike successful C4ISTAR decapitation. SLBM warheads hurl toward Earth at thousands of MPH, making interception during the terminal phase highly improbable. Nuclear capable cruise missiles offer their own challenges, as tracking near ground objects is notoriously difficult especially in mountainous areas.

I created the following info-graphic to demonstrate the destructive power of a single Ohio class sub. As you can see, every major city and military installation could be eliminated in a matter of minutes, should an attack from the regime appear imminent and credible. Major fallout is manageable by good civil defense/medical preparedness, and high airburst calculation (~7k ft. ish).

a reply to: JBurns

Your plan would kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people in North Korea and the fallout would end up who knows where causing unimaginable harm.

Yes, the firepower exists, no it should not be used.
China needs to be pressured to take care of this nutcase.

a reply to: Bluntone22

It isn't my plan, simply an example of a deterrent NK can't ignore or lie its way out of. This would be a terrible day for humanity, without a doubt. But it's important the Kim regime knows we have the will to take it to that level in order to protect our homeland and allies.

edit: Blue, on the bright side, China has recently shown it may be willing to take on North Korea - including abandoning the communist country entirely: source: MSN news

So wait, Kim Jong-Un now represents everyone in NK? I guess that means Obama represented the values of every American while he was president and Trump represents everyone's values now that he is president?

Of course not, but thinking that way probably makes it more acceptable to murder thousands of people with a nuke. If they're all Kim Jong-Un then they all deserve to die! Nice logic.

a reply to: JBurns

i think personally that is, if there is a shooting war China and the US will team up with a small Russian force where Rus and Chi stay on their borders to stop people from leaving or military from retreating into their areas as the US pounds the crap out of the leadership and certain military sites.

that would limit the civilian deaths and the people would be in place to render aid to civilians as they flee the cities.

The fix is in and the world just needs to realize it, Kim WILL be taken out of power along with his close supports one way or another, the people there may be brainwashed in the inner circles of power but i bet the people who are starving and eeking out a life would welcome a power change as long as it's a korean leader.

i could see getting it done with conventional weapons, MAYBE up to 6 tactical strikes with smaller yield weapons and some ECM and microwave stuff.

a reply to: JBurns

Kim knows what we have. He just runs his mouth.

We need to get rid of him quietly-not kill millions of already suffering civilians-they need to be freed.

Yes, China needs to take control of Kim-but then, of course, NK becomes part of the Chinese regime. Those poor NK people.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: JBurns

Your plan would kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people in North Korea and the fallout would end up who knows where causing unimaginable harm.

Yes, the firepower exists, no it should not be used.
China needs to be pressured to take care of this nutcase.

very well put sir

a reply to: JBurns

If I'm not mistaken he was educated in the West and full well knows the facts. I think he's trying to do what his father did and use threats as a tool to get bribes to knock it off. I think the pushback is something he did not expect and now he's cornered. Cornered Rats do bite though and that's pretty troubling.

a reply to: JBurns

The economy has the same GDP as Camden New Jersey. Maybe in about 50 or 60 years they will have enough to afford a battleship.

a reply to: JBurns

Ohio class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs, aka "boomers") carry a compliment of 24 Trident II D5 SLBMs, each carrying up to 12 MIRV'd (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) nuclear warheads...

What do you think Chinas reaction will be when hundreds of incoming tracks suddenly appear, rising over the horizon, coming directly at them?

Glad you're not in charge. Go back to playing video games son.

a reply to: 3NL1GHT3N3D1

A large portion of their population is active/reserve military, interspersed among the population of the country. You should familiar yourselves with nuclear war doctrine, as what you describe are known as strategic or counter-value strikes.

Unfortunately to fight and win against an enemy of this magnitude, these types of strikes will be necessary to prevent casualties in the region and even parts of the U.S.

a reply to: JBurns


What concerns me is that NK have the 3rd largest standing army in the world and 1000's of missiles. It would be a cataclysm.

To then see Trump's tweets today saying that any and all diplomatic effort is a waste of time on his Sec Def's part, while once again using name calling, like it's a primary race or something, is equally as disturbing.

I also don't see anyone communicating a large carrot ie: removal of all sanctions, ability to join the international community and realize long term security and prosperity.

There doesn't seem to be any of that directed at the North Korean people and everyone who surrounds their leader.

It looks like Trump wants to see a war brought about to make use of those toys you mention.

a reply to: penroc3


penroc, very true. I am not advocating counter-value strikes lightly, it is my hope as well that tactical strikes or even limited attack option de-escalatory strikes would result in a quick end of the regime. There is no doubt whatsoever that KJU cannot continue as the leader of NK, and will never be accepted as a nuclear power. Granted, ECM and other unconventional techniques would deliver a crippling blow to his command infrastructure, but even a highly disorganized army of that size could be dangerous.

It is important we not get sucked in to additional long-term negotiations, as the North has shown is uses them to buy time in order to increase its strategic position. It is important to interdict this threat as late in the game as we are (should've been done by Clinton/Bush/Obama), because waiting only serves to increase their destructive power.

a reply to: Blaine91555

Oh most certainly, the bargaining chip aspect is undeniable. Unfortunately it seems as though he has indeed gone a bit too far, and I just feel it is very important we as a nation not be coy about our global deterrence capabilities. In any case, it is truly my hope that he isn't as "crazy" as some claim, and will back down in exchange for food and infrastructure aid for the NK people.

The prospect of him lashing out in anger with attacks on Seoul or other regional cities is not one I relish in the least.
As always, hoping for the best here!

a reply to: intrptr


You mean the tracks they're warned about shortly in advance? Or the tracks coming from the S. China sea toward North Korea, and not China. Their target can be calculated by air defense installations with relative accuracy within a specified CEP.

The U.S. is not going to launch a preemptive attack against China. Not only do they have a survivable second-strike capacity, our economy is highly influenced by China.

Regardless, after reading some of your posts it appears you have a fascination with nuclear warfare and weaponry. Interesting you should mention video games, however, as I'm likely twice your age. Nice try though, attempting to impugn my statement with logical fallacies and ad hominem attacks.

Moving on.

originally posted by: JBurns
It isn't my plan, simply an example of a deterrent NK can't ignore or lie its way out of. This would be a terrible day for humanity, without a doubt. But it's important the Kim regime knows we have the will to take it to that level in order to protect our homeland and allies.

The problem with your suggestion is you're dealing with a mad man - a person were logic, reason and rationality do not exist.

So the idea of him 'appreciating' the consequences of his actions or the potential threat and fallout of a US strike are lost on him.

The only people who'd suffer would be the innocent people of NK and the rest of the world.

The film War Games had it right when it came to nuclear war - the only winning move is not to play. Cheesy, but very accurate.

a reply to: AnkhMorpork

It isn't that he exactly revels in that fact, but simply realizes there is no other assured path to full and unconditional disarmament. The North can not be normalized and accepted as a nuclear power, lest it have the ability to hold the world hostage. At this point, it doesn't have a true second-strike capacity.

Whether or not they are disarmed by force or coercion is yet to be seen. I strongly believe they will be disarmed, nevertheless. I also believe regime change has already been ordered, likely in a way they least expect. A country like that wouldn't be very difficult to destabilize, especially if China is serious about abandoning the communist regime (MSN article). Once living conditions become intolerable, transition to some sort of democracy or republic (like the ROK) is inevitable.

It's like a hostage situation where SK/Japan is the hostage and Kim has a suicide vest on that automatically goes off if you kill him. Negotiations obviously aren't working so other tricks are going to have to be used on this terrorist. I doubt Trump would ever use nukes. Who knows maybe the odd target might call for one... But when Trump said "fire and fury like the world has never seen" I think hes talking about secret technology we don't know about. The problem is I don't think they want to let the cat out of the bag. It might change things forever and other countries will try to reverse engineer it.

originally posted by: AnkhMorpork
a reply to: JBurns


What concerns me is that NK have the 3rd largest standing army in the world and 1000's of missiles. It would be a cataclysm.

To then see Trump's tweets today saying that any and all diplomatic effort is a waste of time on his Sec Def's part, while once again using name calling, like it's a primary race or something, is equally as disturbing.

I also don't see anyone communicating a large carrot ie: removal of all sanctions, ability to join the international community and realize long term security and prosperity.

There doesn't seem to be any of that directed at the North Korean people and everyone who surrounds their leader.

It looks like Trump wants to see a war brought about to make use of those toys you mention.

There are no North Korean people to appeal to. They are all brainwashed from birth to devoutly follow their God leader, and they know the consequences are their entire family and associates sent to death camps if they step out of line.

a reply to: TinfoilTP

So you've been there and know that these people are happy with the way things are in NK? Because from here it sounds like you're assuming things about an entire population based on limited information.