240,000 flee 'imminent' Bali volcano eruption

a reply to: grindhouzer

Thing is that they have so many active volcanoes with so many eruptions that they have more experience with this sort of thing than pretty much any other area in the world except maybe Iceland.

a reply to: ketsuko

Meaning they know when it's time to run away. 'Cuz that's about the only way to deal with it.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: ketsuko

Meaning they know when it's time to run away. 'Cuz that's about the only way to deal with it.

That and that they know their mountains about as well as it's possible to know them.

Consider this - they likely have their volcanoes monitored better than we have our own monitored.

a reply to: ketsuko

"My" volcanoes are very actively monitored, though they are of a friendlier sort.

I think you might find that "yours" are also very actively monitored.

a reply to: Phage

I didn't say they weren't monitored, just not quite like the ones sitting right on the Ring are. But do they need to be? They aren't nearly as active.

a reply to: ketsuko
The scary ones are closely watched.
volcanoes.usgs.gov...

originally posted by: ketsuko

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: ketsuko

Meaning they know when it's time to run away. 'Cuz that's about the only way to deal with it.

That and that they know their mountains about as well as it's possible to know them.

Consider this - they likely have their volcanoes monitored better than we have our own monitored.

magma.vsi.esdm.go.id...

The scary ones are closely watched.l

I thought Zazz would know that?

a reply to: randyvs

She don't scare me.

Much.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Previous cam has been terminated for copyright infringement.

Here is an alternate cam currently showing the mountain upon which occasional plumes of steam can be seen emitting from the cone of the volcano.



This feed occasionally has walkie-talkie conversation, will shift to local seismicity and show volcanic hazards, and occasionally will have waveform data from instruments upon the mountain.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Awsome!
Thanks Just what I was looking for!

a reply to: grindhouzer

Just make sure you watch it on mute...The soundtrack is horrifying.

There has to be something slightly nerve wracking about sitting there watching that volcano and knowing that it could explode totally any second, not knowing when, only knowing it almost certainly will.

You know you're pretty certain to be safe, but there's always that chance that someone missed something ...

You wonder how much that's in the back of those live feed guys' minds as they talk on their walkie talkies.

a reply to: ketsuko

At least with a storm the timing is more or less accurate.

Same with a tsunami; "Something really bad is going to happen in about 8 hours. Brace yourselves. Better yet, leave."

a reply to: Olivine

A helicorder for that station has since been posted.

When one looks, one can see swarming activity, but so far no long period events or volcanic tremor have been recorded. Those folks may be waiting for quite some time before this volcano erupts.

A couple of current cams:


This is a traffic police channel and occasionally there will be walkie talkie conversation. It is located northwest of the mountain.

And


This is a channel that was running yesterday but was terminated for copyright infringement. This is their new stream and located south of the mountain.

Mt. Agung continues to look very bad.

(10/1/2017) NusaBali reports that the most recent analysis conducted by the Center for Volcanoes and the Mitigation of Geological Disasters (PVMBG) from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimate the continuing series of earth tremor under Bali’s Mount Agung are driven by a massive magma flow totaling 15 million cubic meters that is causing the “quakes” as it breaks its way through the substructure of the volcano.

Devy Kamil, the head of a sub-section of PVMBG, said on Sunday, October 1, 2017: “The magma is not scattered, but is a single mass of magma that’s on the move. The magma is seeking cracks and weaknesses through which to escape to above the surface.”

Devy said the local earthquakes were the result of magma’s movement that is breaking away parts of the substructure of the volcano. Adding: “As a result, we are feeling more and more tremors. Just imagine how much magma is on the move?”

Estimating the magma pool at 15 million cubic meters, Devy explained: “Our estimates and analysis indicate that there is, in fact, more than 15 million cubic meters of magma that is moving below the surface. That amount is limited to only that causing the earth tremors.”

Devy said the estimate of the magma’s volume is extrapolated by converting the magnitude of the tectonic earthquakes emanating from Mount Agung, permitting the PVMBG to calculate the pressure and size of the deposit of subterranean magma.

A similar analysis was offered by the local chief of PVMBG, Gede Suantika, who said the magma was relentlessly seeking release from the mountain. Mount Agung remains at a “critical phase” with a sulfur gas clouds forming at the peak of the mountain, the physical exterior shape of the mountain expanding and cracks appearing on the mountain’s surface.

Speaking to Tribunebali.com, Suantika said, “The magma continues to look for weakness in the mountain’s structure to escape to the surface and create a magma channel.” He explained that Mount Agung, unlike other volcanoes that explode regularly and have established magma “pipes,” has been dormant since 1963 necessitating massive amounts of energy to form new magma channels.

Suantika said that the pressure exerted by the magma remains steady, but the strength of the actual stone structure of the mountain continues to weaken. This fact is worrying to volcanologists observing the mountain who fear the next explosion will be stronger than that experienced in the 1963 eruption. “Perhaps at the beginning, the explosion will resemble the earlier eruption of 1963. But, because Mt. Agung has not erupted for many years, there exists the possibility that large rocks and huge quantities of sand ejected from the mountain may travel a distance of up to 6-kilometers. It’s predicted that the eruption may be extraordinary," warned Suantika.

© Bali Discovery Tours. Articles may be quoted and reproduced if attributed to www.balidiscovery.com....

If the end of that article is right, it sounds like they're starting to worry that this may be bigger than they originally thought.

Also, I heard a report that a second crack has formed but none of the steam being emitted has yet changed over from white.

a reply to: ketsuko

Also, I heard a report that a second crack has formed but none of the steam being emitted has yet changed over from white.

I was watching the Lysit cam yesterday when I got home from work and saw what looked to be flank vents fairly far down the side of the mountain:



I don't think this was clouds as you could watch it diffuse away and then be replenished from down closer to the mountain.

That cam is currently streaming the helicorder as it is night time over there. I am sure it will switch over to the cam view once it gets closer to dawn. The sunrises there are spectacular.

The most recent update hasn't been translated to English as of this posting. Here is the graph from that article:

FEARLESS FRENCHMAN VISITS VOLCANO FORECAST TO ERUPT ANY DAY RAW VIDEO
Published on 8 Oct 2017

a reply to: ketsuko

I can't for the life of me find the source now but i was reading an interview with a Mt Agung local last week that said you can feel the whole mountain vibrating if you put your hands on the rock - not just during the tremors. He was a hardy local well used to volcanism in the region......and that one fact had him terrified! I will post the source if i manage to find it.

They need to issue another warning people have become complacent and the mountain is about to erupt within the next week. Not a good time to be climbing up to the dome and taking pictures.