Thucydides Trap about to ensnare entire world, peace hangs but by a thread. What history tells us?

Dear ATS Readers, Writers,

I searched for the proper forum, and I suppose History is it..Ha! Because getting it off my chest will be basically therapeutic. Since ATS is widely read, I also hope someone in higher realms of power and influence might "run with" some of this threads input, and improve our collective future outlook.

I am a history "freak".. to understand your current situation, one needs to know the past. The truth of the past, not the text book version, or official government version.

If one has an honest look at history, todays situation is pretty darn bleak... and the mother of all wars is approaching just around the corner. Of course, I do hope I am extremely incorrect here; but real history displays a "historical template" for unprecedented military conflict/disaster in our current times.

There are so many conflicts going on right now, and several regional "hot spots"; that the diplomats who attempt to juggle all of these areas of contention.. well.. someone is going to drop a ball somewhere, and the poop is going to hit the fan. Basically, too many bloody frying pans on the stove, coupled to an empty national/global pocketbook preventing keeping these hot pans under control!

Again, I sincerely pray I am "all wet" on this concern. (This is despite real history telling me I probably should be digging a bomb shelter.)

Thucydides Trap.... A reference to an ancient situation in Greece which caused a terrible very long war between the Greek States of Athens, and Sparta.

The Peloponnesian War, recorded by Thucydides, for a period of over 30 years... his writings/records only ended after it is figured he died, before the war ended.

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

Harvard Thucydides’s Trap Project is a very well put together source to begin to study this historical fact, and how in many ways, it "fits" with our modern world situation.

For an example and from the source... (link soon following in text dear ATS community...)

Thucydides Trap Harvard Study

Reviewing the past five hundred years, the Harvard Thucydides’s Trap Project has identified sixteen cases in which a major rising power has threatened to displace a major ruling power. Twelve of these sixteen rivalries ended in war.

1. Late 15th century — Portugal vs. Spain — NO WAR

2. First half of 16th century — France vs. Hapsburgs — WAR

3. 16th and 17th centuries — Hapsburgs vs. Ottoman Empire — WAR

4. First half of 17th century — Hapsburgs vs. Sweden — WAR

5. Mid-to-late 17th century — Dutch Republic vs. England — WAR

6. Late 17th to mid-18th centuries — France vs. Great Britain — WAR

7. Late 18th and early 19th centuries — United Kingdom vs. France — WAR

8. Mid-19th century — France and United Kingdom vs. Russia — WAR

9. Mid-19th century — France vs. Germany — WAR

10. Late 19th and early 20th centuries — China and Russia vs. Japan — WAR

11. Early 20th century — United Kingdom vs. United States — NO WAR

12. Early 20th century — United Kingdom (supported by France, Russia) vs. Germany — WAR

13. Mid-20th century — Soviet Union, France, and United Kingdom vs. Germany — WAR

14. Mid-20th century — United States vs. Japan — WAR

15. 1940s-1980s — United States vs. Soviet Union — NO WAR

16. 1990s-present — United Kingdom and France vs. Germany — NO WAR

At the link, each bullet point is expandable, so you can understand each of the 16 case studies.

Explore the link above and it's other areas...

There are those that argue we are NOT in a Thucydides Trap in our modern times..

I think enough of the theory exists to pay it diligent attention as we try to navigate the uncharted waters and shoals of todays diplomacy and foreign policy.

Forgive the long post, but hope it sparks input from others at ATS...

It is a situation that to me, is much like an elephant in the living room that no one sees, or talks about in MSM.

Pravdaseeker

Are you alluding to China Russia vs USA?

All the US has to do is take the shackles off of their historical adversary in the region, Japan, and the US is no longer their immediate concern. A Japan under a new military allowed constitution, spending all of its gdp on a navy, airforce, missiles and Nukes......it could have a fleet of carriers, it's islands ringed with missile defense, subs, F35's as fast as they can be ordered and come off the assembly line. Not to mention the boom to US economy thanks to China's and Russia's proxy nation NK.

Greetings TinfoilTP,

Are you alluding to China Russia vs USA?

Yes, I suppose I am, since that is apparently what the "talking heads" are telling us..

You bring up a very interesting point. One that Japan's Abe intends to do, if re-elected, and it is said to be a big part of his coming re-election campaign theme. The post WW2 treaty stuff is seriously being looked at as we write inputs into this thread.

Lord forbid, but if a terrible war does "happen"; Japan will be an important ally.

The scenario you mention might be true, and good for the MIC stock prices... but I honestly am not sure it would move the world to de-escalate the hostilities. On the contrary, a suddenly rapid militarisation of Japan could "push" other nations to act first, and decisively, circumventing a foreseeable outcome negative to that nations long term goals.

It would essentially be adding another "frying pan", with grand historical propaganda to cultivate to instigate fear within the masses, and fear of/hate, once more upon Japan.

But, it could also bring a sick homeostasis to the far east regions as you allude to... it also could only help ensure somewhere down the line these weapons would get used, or nations would react militarily to a perceived fast rising Japanese military threat. Perceived threat being the key here I believe.

Just like the NK and USA thing going on.. both have legitimate "perceived threats" to be greatly concerned about.

You do have a strong point, and it is one that Japan's Abe plans to use/exploit to forge Japans future in the world.

Pravdaseeker








a reply to: TinfoilTP

I applaud your concern and desire to help those higher ups who might read ATS.

I am a history "freak".. to understand your current situation, one needs to know the past. The truth of the past, not the text book version, or official government version.

Not the text book version? or the official Government version? Yet you then go straight to a Harvard study. Harvard being an example of what, some alternate view of history? I't s Harvard pravda, as establishment and official about everything as you can get.

But looking to the past and past trends is not going to tell us much.

When in the past did anyone have bombs so powerful that they could wipe out a whole state with one drop, or wipe out the entire electrical infrastructure of a continent with a huge EMP . When in history.

When in history could one nation ''laser' another nation from outer space.
When in history could any nation send in a fleet of remote controlled drones to wipe out any target without endangering their own people.

When in history could one nation use chemical weapons to kill an entire army in minutes.
When in history could one weak nation with a screwball boss pose a real threat to another country of great might.

Getting my drift here? The rules have change and the battle field has turned upside down.

Greetings TerryMcGuire,

I fully understand your point about, "Hey it's Harvard!!" Believe me, I get it, and your point has a huge dose of truth in it.

I still believe it to a probably "less biased" version, and at least more truthful version; than perhaps the talking heads present to us on our world situation.

The "Harvard Version of history" is also what our current world diplomats look to, or went to classes at ivy league colleges, Harvard, and perhaps studied some of the content of the info at link? Who knows.. I do see your point.. Yet the Harvard Version meme is what the world tends to run on too..

When in the past did anyone have bombs so powerful that they could wipe out a whole state with one drop, or wipe out the entire electrical infrastructure of a continent with a huge EMP . When in history.

When in history could one nation ''laser' another nation from outer space.
When in history could any nation send in a fleet of remote controlled drones to wipe out any target without endangering their own people.

When in history could one nation use chemical weapons to kill an entire army in minutes.
When in history could one weak nation with a screwball boss pose a real threat to another country of great might.

Yes, interesting points you make. But prior to WW1, for a couple examples: Bombs from dirigibles were never thought of or experienced by any nation. Previously unheard of flying machines, planes diving on troops and bombing/strafing them.. At the time they were just as shocking and terrorising as a laser from space today. Nor were machine guns used in warfare per se' on a commercial scale.. Mr Maxim made a fortune, millions dies...

Every world conflict has brought forth a new generation of weapons capable of higher exponentially casualty counts. There were those "in the know" about these future weapons, and this still did not stop them from trying to kill everyone.

As far as chemical weapons, well they were used pretty heavily in WW1, with a huge list of casualties. Granted, todays chemicals are much more nasty and lethal. Biologicals were used on a big scale in China by Japan...during WW2.

To the military minds of the time... of WW1, and WW2... none were prepared for what was used during those conflicts, Prior to them "happening".

The same applies to todays generals, etc. All of these very lethal and ominous weapons you mention, don't seem to be making people have a serious rethink on it all.

The battlefields of history, in their own right, and in their own time frame, known war tactics; were no less upside down, I guess is my point.

Great input... thanks for that perspective.

Pravdaseeker

a reply to: TerryMcGuire

a reply to: pravdaseeker
And I am not discounting the need for us to study the past, pravda, There still are many many things that it is important to pay heed to that history can teach us.

For me the biggest lesson many seem not to have learned is that armed conflict on a global scale is a death sentence. World leaders should not follow the patterns of the past but rather be insightful in finding ways to circumvent those patterns and establish new methods for compromise if we are to avoid the next all out war we all know will be our last.

BINGO.... you win the big ceee-gar!

Right on the nosey there Terry!

I suppose your blatantly obvious truth, and the lack of the masses seeing it? , and world leaders not heeding this blatant truth is what really has me concerned.

It is to this point you make, that I was trying to use history; as a teaching lesson for todays situation. Not a "conspiracy theory" approach, but just one of historical record as a warning point.

Everyone is so "blind" to it all in reality. We have people in high places squawking to blow NK, or Russia, some even China!!! to bits and pieces...

This would have happened no matter who was in the White House. Bill Clinton in his times, spoke very bellicose of NK..

So, I don't want to go "partisan" or the thread to go partisan.. Ha! It is what it is.. due to good/bad intentions in the past diplomatically...

There is one hell of a storm brewing, just over the horizon... we need some serious climate change world wide diplomatically speaking..

Pravdaseeker



a reply to: TerryMcGuire

Pravdaseeker......I agree with you to an extent. Yes, history does repeat itself. But the our current so called "history" is being manipulated to achieve a desired result for a forthcoming and longer term agenda. I have been following global affairs for a long time, and mentioned the following very early on with others mocking my "theories", but they have all eventuated thus far as I predicted.

Once the Cold War ended....the next phase began.....the next phase being the buildup and preparation to the next global conflict. Just as World Powers knew at the end of WW1 that WW2 was almost guaranteed given the harsh sanctions/requirements imposed on Germany, the Western Powers began almost immediately building up and preparing for that next major conflict.

We find ourselves in the same stage now........

When the Cold War "officially" ended....the US and Western Powers could have taken advantage of the weakness and confusion in Russia and attacked....but they were not ready for such a large endeavour at that point in time.

What has occured since has been a calculated "Chess Game" in order to remove all the "pawns" globally...pawns referencing all the minor and smaller state players that could pose a future thorn in the side to Western interests.....

Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, and a host of others that have had their leaderships toppled and nations put into a state of divide and conquer, with internal strife amongst various factions becoming the new norm.

Ukraine is in a similar but slightly different scenario - this was a concerted effort by Western powers to tear Ukraine from Russian influence. The leadership was required to be changed...Yanukovich was a very corrupt Russian muppet, but the replacement of that leadership by jewish western leaning muppets has put Ukraine in a situation where the # is the same, but the smell is different. Unfortunately many Ukrainians do not see the dangers with all this, blinded by their sense of patriotism.

North Korea will be taken out in some for or other....Iran, like it or not will suffer the same fate.

That will leave only Russia and China as the last major adversaries to Western/UN Global rule.....NWO!

N.Korea will be taken out within the next 12 months....quite possibly within 6months. Focus will then shift to Iran in earnest.

Once Iran has been brought to its knees and become a similar situation as Iraq is now, the end of the chess game will be upon us.....

Keep an eye out on Belorussia....I beleive there will be some trouble there in the battle for control by Western and Russia interests.....by grabbing Belorrusia, it would put another Western proxy state extremely close to Moscow. I doubt Russia would allow this to happen, so smaller skirmishes/proxy battles like Ukraine will become the norm there too.

I predict the final battle for global supremecy will eventuate by 2025.

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
Are you alluding to China Russia vs USA?

All the US has to do is take the shackles off of their historical adversary in the region, Japan, and the US is no longer their immediate concern. A Japan under a new military allowed constitution, spending all of its gdp on a navy, airforce, missiles and Nukes......it could have a fleet of carriers, it's islands ringed with missile defense, subs, F35's as fast as they can be ordered and come off the assembly line. Not to mention the boom to US economy thanks to China's and Russia's proxy nation NK.

Can you imagine some of the crazy military stuff Japan would create? They would be something to see.

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
Are you alluding to China Russia vs USA?

All the US has to do is take the shackles off of their historical adversary in the region, Japan, and the US is no longer their immediate concern. A Japan under a new military allowed constitution, spending all of its gdp on a navy, airforce, missiles and Nukes......it could have a fleet of carriers, it's islands ringed with missile defense, subs, F35's as fast as they can be ordered and come off the assembly line. Not to mention the boom to US economy thanks to China's and Russia's proxy nation NK.

Japan has been preparing for that moment, when their shackles can be removed for a long time. Fukushima, if you studied it carefully, was being used as a secret nuclear weapons facility. well, uranium enrichment facility at least. they has 30 years of spent fuel rods sitting in the roofs of the reactors when those reactors and blew them sky high. There is other sources mentioning Japans secret nukes program....no doubt sponsored by the US. Point being....I dont beleive Japan is so pacifist as everyone makes them out to be. they have long memories too, and yearn for the moment to re-establish their Japanese Empire and take on their adversaries in the region.

Also better to sponsor a war away from your own borders and sacrifice so called "Allies" than war coming home to your own lands.

Greetings MM,

Pravdaseeker......I agree with you to an extent. Yes, history does repeat itself. But the our current so called "history" is being manipulated to achieve a desired result for a forthcoming and longer term agenda. I have been following global affairs for a long time, and mentioned the following very early on with others mocking my "theories", but they have all eventuated thus far as I predicted.

You point out something that made the Matrix movie series so popular... you're darn tootin' it is all being manipulated! The Thucydides Trap is also manipulated/created. Perhaps on purpose too.

Mate, we are all pawns on the chessboard in reality.

This is the only reasoning I can put behind the decisions and policies from Wash. DC for a long time. The country means nothing to long term goals of a evil cabal type gang of psychopaths running things.

That is a bigger wider picture of things, that I am pretty sure is spot on.

Whether manufactured, or real; the perceived Thucydides Trap parallels are still real to us pawns.

Nations are turning a lot to sanctions and trade changes, to try and keep the coffers full of money. It is a self defeating downward spiral that historically, war was only able to reverse.

Sanctions lead to trade wars which lead to shooting wars. We are in step 2 now..

The trap still closes in a sense.

Pravdaseeker

a reply to: Melbourne_Militia

I've been off ATS for quite some time, and coming back, my knee jerk reaction is to immediately go into skeptic mode. Refute the assumptions you ignore (there is a common element to the NO WAR eras you are ignoring), point out the trajectory (what's different for the last 2, hmmmmm), but...

After the last 18 months, I'm throwing my hands up.

I will fully admit, I don't have a clue anymore.

My personal theory is what I call the SimCity hypothesis. Whomever is playing the simulation we are a part of has gotten bored and hitting the disaster button over and over and over, before starting a new game.

I know that is what I've always done when I play SimCity over rhe last couple of decades.

a reply to: pravdaseeker

Finally! This is a good post about history/politics that doesn't resort to mudslinging/name calling/reptiles/jackassery. Anyway, I do appreciate the research done and hope that something can disable the trap before it is sprung.

originally posted by: Melbourne_Militia

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
Are you alluding to China Russia vs USA?

All the US has to do is take the shackles off of their historical adversary in the region, Japan, and the US is no longer their immediate concern. A Japan under a new military allowed constitution, spending all of its gdp on a navy, airforce, missiles and Nukes......it could have a fleet of carriers, it's islands ringed with missile defense, subs, F35's as fast as they can be ordered and come off the assembly line. Not to mention the boom to US economy thanks to China's and Russia's proxy nation NK.

Japan has been preparing for that moment, when their shackles can be removed for a long time. Fukushima, if you studied it carefully, was being used as a secret nuclear weapons facility. well, uranium enrichment facility at least. they has 30 years of spent fuel rods sitting in the roofs of the reactors when those reactors and blew them sky high. There is other sources mentioning Japans secret nukes program....no doubt sponsored by the US. Point being....I dont beleive Japan is so pacifist as everyone makes them out to be. they have long memories too, and yearn for the moment to re-establish their Japanese Empire and take on their adversaries in the region.

Also better to sponsor a war away from your own borders and sacrifice so called "Allies" than war coming home to your own lands.

Never seen the one where people think Fuku's spent rods were being hoarded for future weapons. They don't really have a big desert to go bury them in and they only got one mountain that is kind of iconic so they probably don't want to contaminate that, besides isn't it burping out lava from time to time?

Japan wouldn't need to develop and test their own bombs or enrich anything, just buy some from Uncle Sam. They don't even need ICBM, medium range would do.

This is nonsense.


The only reason for war is because people listen to these idiots called leaders and these stupid orders called commands. What is so hard to believe that the only people that exist in this world are A Holes and non A Holes?

Seriously think about for 2 seconds if the majority of the world just woke up one day and decided not to listen to these people and took matters into their own hands.

We deserve everything we get. Trust me.

originally posted by: TinfoilTP

Never seen the one where people think Fuku's spent rods were being hoarded for future weapons. They don't really have a big desert to go bury them in and they only got one mountain that is kind of iconic so they probably don't want to contaminate that, besides isn't it burping out lava from time to time?

Japan wouldn't need to develop and test their own bombs or enrich anything, just buy some from Uncle Sam. They don't even need ICBM, medium range would do.

Check following "old" article from the same period -

Secret Weapons Program Inside Fukushima Nuclear Plant?

a reply to: pravdaseeker

I read thucidedes in elementary school, and he was dry and fatalistic. Much later I read him as an adult, and he blossomed out. But my takeaway is that Athenian pure democracy is only a flower which blooms and wilts, in a short time. The U K was ready to make war on us, by 1928, but Churchill put a stop to it. IMHO, Japan can never be our trusted ally, after we Nuked two of their cities in WWII. There are still horrible radiation poisoning cases in hospitals there today. Like with Vikings' beserker drugs, it passes on down through the generations, as genetic damage.