M 6.3 Explosion - 24km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea

a reply to: DirtyBizzler

My question is can we let them launch any more missiles? They claim to be able to put it on a missile. Even if they haven't mastered guidance and re-entry yet, can we take the chance the next missile won't have one of these on it? It doesn't have to hit a precise spot on the ground to cause catastrophe.

As Haley said, there's no more road down which to kick this can.

a reply to: DirtyBizzler

That's what they're looking at now. Was the one that they showed everyone what was actually detonated, or was that just a "hey, look at our cool new bomb" kind of thing. I think the general leaning, from the initial numbers is this was a decent primary and fizzle on the secondary, but they're still arguing about it.

Against a civilian target, sure. Hardened military targets are a different story. That's why Cold War error nukes were in the multi-megaton range and ones fitted to Tridents now are around 600kt max, hard to actually destroy something deep underground if you can't get right on top of it. Actual American circular error probability for warhead launches is still a closely guarded secret and mostly conjecture from what I gather. Even now, they can only fit one in the warhead bus. I imagine this will change very soon if they figure out the peanut on their own or China gives it too them.

South Korea fired a Hyunmoo-2A, and SLAM-ERs at a target in the East Sea in response to the North Korean test.

m.yna.co.kr...

a reply to: Zaphod58

Scrambling an 15 in response to a launch is calling it kinda close.

Would it be better to have south korea constantly have a pair of 15s flying and armed with the anti blastic missile weapon. Taking around the clock shifts.

a reply to: BASSPLYR

What anti ballistic missile weapon? There are no aircraft launched weapons.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Did Raytheon ever get their NCADE up and running ?
Wasn't that supposed to be an air launched ABM. I know zilch about missiles , so I am probably way off the mark.

www.flightglobal.com...

well problem is that NK is holding SK hostage. The very moment Us or any plan to attack NK , they start annihilate SK then try take Us in dying breath. Thats how i view the current situation. If i remember correct, Us vil not attack NK until they have found a solution to eliminate the SK hostage situation. For now its just saber rattling and trying goading US or any country to attack NK.

Although i wonder about China's stance about it when they see NK keep goading Us or any country to attack them since China has stated that they will not interfere if NK starts the fight. But then.. if Us starts sending a punch first, would China start reluctantly defend NK or rather accept they may break any treaties they have with NK and let Us deal with them?

a reply to: nelloh62

No. That's one of those programs that never really went anywhere.

At this point, it doesn't even matter if NK has an ICBM, MRBM tipped with silly putty; if he launches toward a population center, ANY population center it will have the same panic and emotional effect as though it were a 50 KT nuke and they will find themselves in war and massive devestation (all over silly putty).

originally posted by: BASSPLYR
a reply to: carewemust

We can pre emptively strike north korea with no consequences from china or the rest of the world. Wouldnt be the first time china backed down and got suddenly insecure when the usa dropped its trow to show just how big its stick really is.

Agreed. In fact it is unlikely China would interfere in any major way for fear of the devastating economic collapse that would quickly ensue upon them.

originally posted by: Cofactor
a reply to: djz3ro

That's a bold claim to make, I for one wouldn't want to take that risk.

No one will take that risk. NK entrance into the select club of nuclear armed countries is a direct consequence of strong US pressure on them. Now they have access to MAD as a deterrent. If the pressure were to disappear, I bet NK would get rid of this program within a decade as maintaining nuclear weapons require an awfull amount of resources, and this country is awfully poor...

Another thought that scares me, all that nuclear waste, can they afford to keep it properly contained?

One would assume this warrants a change in the old doomsday ticker.

originally posted by: dontneedaname

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: dontneedaname

originally posted by: anotherside
nuclear launch detected
Starcraft spoof.

What if we forced all miltaries to disarm and play video games to challenge eachother instead of total war..oh wait that too is a fun game.

Death is permanent.

what if people playing video games is a contributing factor to why the meme/thought of people wanting war continues...learn about quantum entanglement

Quantum entanglement dont work that way. A person has no control over their government declaring war. So no matter how much they may want it its not gonna happen.

And stop blaming video games for peoples bad behaviour. its a excuse. Truth is we are responsible for our own actions regardless of influence. Oh he had a rough childhood... Oh boo freaking hoo. Still woudnt stop me from executing them.

learn about - multiple discoveries - for one. QE does work that way....learn about how twins think and can think and do things at the same time in different places... parental instinct (more motherly than fatherly)... all clues...about how we are all connected.

but doesn't matter much now...things will play out as they need to play out. life is just a movie that I will watch for now. History...is just a funny movie when you zoom out far enough.

Actually... teh reason those work isnt quantum entanglement. thats psychic. And they have a connection. To fir your opinion of it it would have to apply to all.

ANyway Ive seen the future. its not pretty. World polluted to the point oceans turn acid. smog so dense your lungs explode into fountains of blood if you inhale it. But in the meantime its better to fight that future.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Cofactor
a reply to: meagerhair

The numbers do not add up. To make the folks in SK feel more at ease they are going to make this seem as small as possible.

For me too, it does not compute! Energy released from a M6.3 event is 2.8MT according to Kelly's tables.

There are couples folks here that are knowledgeable in earthquake science, time to show up guys!

No, in Wikipedia's Richter magnitude scale examples ( en.wikipedia.org... )
you can see a 15 kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima produced a 6.0 earthquake and using a simple calculator : ( www.convertalot.com... ) you can see that a 6.3 earthquake is an equivalent to 42.5 kilotons of TNT.
I'm not sure whether you mean the released energy or the equivalent yield (in TNT), though.

Anyway, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake would produce 1.778279e+14 Joules of energy = 178 TJ, or is an equivalent to an explosion of 42.5 kilotons of TNT.

Just for comparison, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested was "Tsar Bomb" in 1961 by the Soviet Union. Tsar bomb had a yield of 50 megatons of TNT (210 PJ).


95% of people do not even understand the exponential function, so it's pretty hard to understand and think in logarithmic scale (Richter's).

Thanks. My conclusion is that this Kelly guy does not know what he is talking about! Another proof that anybody can post anything on internet that can look serious but is simply a load of baloney.

However you understand that the exemples you gave were above ground events and we are talking for an underground event? Anyway this fact still goes in the direction of your argumentation as it would make the magnitude stronger.

China, which could militarily remove North-Koreas dictatorship without anything bad happening to them, seems to be forgetting one big geopolitical thing when it enables North-Korea to be a hydrogen bomb ICBM country.

That is...: Japan.

Japan will next want to have their own nuclear arsenal with 1000 missiles ready to take out, not only North-Korea but whole of China.


Seems the democrats promised China something when they get their president in, which they didnt get in, and Trump went in, and now China is not willing to back down.

But japan has knowhow and raw materials and even missiles they have already built themselves, that can have a nuclear weapon.

Which is better for China. North-Korea stays quiet, Japan has no nukes, world peace goes forward.

Or Usa withdraws, Japan builds nukes. 1000 pieces of 50 megaton meganukes, says kamikaze and then its good night asia.

originally posted by: Cofactor

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Cofactor
a reply to: meagerhair

The numbers do not add up. To make the folks in SK feel more at ease they are going to make this seem as small as possible.

For me too, it does not compute! Energy released from a M6.3 event is 2.8MT according to Kelly's tables.

There are couples folks here that are knowledgeable in earthquake science, time to show up guys!

No, in Wikipedia's Richter magnitude scale examples ( en.wikipedia.org... )
you can see a 15 kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima produced a 6.0 earthquake and using a simple calculator : ( www.convertalot.com... ) you can see that a 6.3 earthquake is an equivalent to 42.5 kilotons of TNT.
I'm not sure whether you mean the released energy or the equivalent yield (in TNT), though.

Anyway, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake would produce 1.778279e+14 Joules of energy = 178 TJ, or is an equivalent to an explosion of 42.5 kilotons of TNT.

Just for comparison, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested was "Tsar Bomb" in 1961 by the Soviet Union. Tsar bomb had a yield of 50 megatons of TNT (210 PJ).


95% of people do not even understand the exponential function, so it's pretty hard to understand and think in logarithmic scale (Richter's).

Thanks. My conclusion is that this Kelly guy does not know what he is talking about! Another proof that anybody can post anything on internet that can look serious but is simply a load of baloney.

However you understand that the exemples you gave were above ground events and we are talking for an underground event? Anyway this fact still goes in the direction of your argumentation as it would make the magnitude stronger.

That one is tricky...shallow quakes generally tend to be more damaging than deeper quakes. Seismic waves from deep quakes have to travel farther to the surface, losing energy along the way so shaking is more intense from quakes that hit close to the surface. Deep quakes may be less damaging, though they're usually more widely felt.
There is also a difference between epicentre and hypocentre.
I would say the magnitude is measured at the very point of explosion/earthquake (hypocentre) and the depth is not relevant.

Has there been any radiation detected yet? I know initially there wasn't any, but with the supposed collapse sooner or later they ought be able to detect it.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: DirtyBizzler

That's what they're looking at now. Was the one that they showed everyone what was actually detonated, or was that just a "hey, look at our cool new bomb" kind of thing. I think the general leaning, from the initial numbers is this was a decent primary and fizzle on the secondary, but they're still arguing about it.

I haven't seen anything definitive from any of the bona fide nuclear agencies that keep track of this kind of thing, but I think it's very unlikely that the recent NK explosion was actually a true "Hydrogen Bomb" with a primary and a separate secondary. For one thing, the same amount of Tritium and/or Lithium that would be consumed in one Hydrogen Bomb would allow the construction of many Boosted Fission bombs, with much greater military utility. I think it's very unlikely that NK has enough Tritium/Lithium production capacity to support a true Hydrogen Bomb program. Also, a true Hydrogen Bomb would be heavier and therefore even further beyond the throw weight of their current missiles. There was some argument a few years ago that the 4 Kt yield of one of their very first devices was optimally sized to lead to a Boosted Fission device as their next step.

There are a number of good reasons to think that this "should" have been a Boosted Fission device, but we won't know for sure until they're able to sniff the radioactive downwind plume and measure the nuclides in it.

originally posted by: putnam6
Has there been any radiation detected yet? I know initially there wasn't any, but with the supposed collapse sooner or later they ought be able to detect it.

SK detects no radiation

South Korea's nuclear safety agency said Wednesday it has detected no traces of radioactive materials, including xenon gas, following North Korea's latest nuclear test.
...
In a statement, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission said it has not found any traces of radionuclides, such as xenon, in its tests of soil, water and air samples following North Korea's sixth nuclear test.

I believe Japan have also stated they haven't detected any either.

originally posted by: auroraaus

originally posted by: putnam6
Has there been any radiation detected yet? I know initially there wasn't any, but with the supposed collapse sooner or later they ought be able to detect it.

SK detects no radiation

South Korea's nuclear safety agency said Wednesday it has detected no traces of radioactive materials, including xenon gas, following North Korea's latest nuclear test.
...
In a statement, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission said it has not found any traces of radionuclides, such as xenon, in its tests of soil, water and air samples following North Korea's sixth nuclear test.

I believe Japan have also stated they haven't detected any either.

Thanks for the link have been working and haven't had time to check.. I guess the winds aren't blowing in that direction enough yet or it's radiation is contained better than expected or a myriad of other explanations. Wonder if there is a way to mimic the seismic signature that is non-nuclear or not hydrogen. After all this is the same guy that said he got five holes in one playing golf.

LOL I imagine Japan's background radiation is a little bit higher than elsewhere for that matter