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Joe D’Aleo, co-author of the CEI-affiliated report, made the embarrassingly uninformed and wrong claim that “nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments.”
The report "On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding - Abridged Research Report" (with annotations) by James P. Wallace III, Joseph S. D’Aleo, and Craig D. Idso provides no evidence for this claim; the graph above shows the opposite is true.
Bucket measurements are made by hauling a bucket of water from the ocean and stirring a thermometer until it has the temperature of the water. The problem is that the water cools due to evaporation between the time it is lifted from the ocean and the time the thermometer is read.
This is not only a large adjustment, but also a large uncertainty. Initially is was estimated that the bucket measurements were about 0.4 °C colder. Nowadays the estimate, depending on the bucket and the period, is about 0.2 °C, but it can be anywhere between 0.4 °C and zero.
The graph below shows the warming over land as estimated from weather station data by US NOAA (GHCNv3). Over land the warming was larger than the raw observations suggest. The adjustments are made by comparing every candidate station with its nearby neighbours. Changes in the regional climate will be the same in all stations, any change that only happens at the candidate station is not representative for the region, but likely a change in how temperature was observed.
originally posted by: seasonal
a reply to: redtic
The temps being altered consistently from 1997? Pretty much in one direction?
Sure.
originally posted by: seasonal
So China, a huge polluter, would have no obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas. On the other hand, the US would have to, and on top of that China would get US tax $$ too. Trump pulled out of the Paris deal, this will force a even handed approach to green house gas reduction.
NOAA's temp #'s are consistently higher than actual temp readings. Almost like it was planned or something.
www.zerohedge.com...
As world leaders, namely in the European Union, attack President Trump for pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement which would have saddled Americans with billions upon billions of dollars in debt and economic losses, a new bombshell report that analyzed Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data produced by NASA, the NOAA and HADLEY proves the President was right on target with his refusal to be a part of the new initiative.
According to the report, which has been peer reviewed by administrators, scientists and researchers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.), and several of America’s leading universities, the data is completely bunk:
Complete bunk, this is what MIT and several leading US universities called the GAST data produced by NASA, the NOAA and HADLEY. Seems like Trump made the right call.
originally posted by: Greven
Gore never said anything about no ice by 2013.
Also, that 'study' is pretty dumb. It purposely looks at old data (pre-2010) because more recent data would destroy it.
Additionally, it distorts things to make unfounded claims. For example, here are two charts from the 'study' and their dumb rhetoric:
Thus, it seems that beyond any doubt, the U.S. data reflected in the Global Average Surface Temperature data calculation should contain the cyclical patterns shown above. In fact, as shown below in Figure V-15, as of 1999, in NOAA data, it did!
*chart V-15, the red line in the overlay below*
...
The solution: the U.S.historical data was adjusted as shown in Figure V-17.
*chart V-17, the purple line in the overlay below*
Here's how those charts look like compared to each other to annihilate that rhetoric:
I had to adjust the height by 92% and the width by 104% from the second to match up closely with the first. This is how they mislead you.
Far be it from a vast adjustment, it's simply because it's been warmer since 1999 that the trend changed so much.
originally posted by: seasonal
a reply to: redtic
Fact, fact and facts.
There are always differing facts. The problem with this particular political football is that there is huge $$$ on the status quo and there are huge $$$$ to jump on a global warming train.
If global warming is happening, we don't know why. It is a fact that it has indeed happened before. before internal combustion engines and mass production.
Way too much $$$ involved either way.
However, the newspaper failed to adjust for the fact that the two datasets use different baselines. NOAA, and the paper by Dr Karl and co-authors, use the average for the period between 1901 and 2000, while the Met Office instead uses the average between 1961 and 1990 as its baseline.
originally posted by: seasonal
a reply to: Greven
I think we will find this is all a cycle, more or less. There is no thermostat that we can set to 72 degrees.
The lines are left unchanged, but take note of how the added text contradicts itself. Near the top, it says "Average of 15 Reconstructions." In the bottom left corner, it says:
20-year low-pass filtered June-August temperature reconstruction (°C wrt 1961-1990) based on a network of 15 MXD chronologies from across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics (Schneider et al., 2015)
A single reconstruction created by using 15 chronologies as proxies is not an "Average of 15 Reconstructions." There is only one reconstruction, and it is not created by taking the average of series. The added text is simply wrong.
originally posted by: seasonal
a reply to: Greven
I think we will find this is all a cycle, more or less. There is no thermostat that we can set to 72 degrees.