Hurricane Hitting Southeast US by July 18th

It appears there will be a hurricane that will be hitting the Southeast US on or around July 21st, according to the latest GFS model runs. It looks like it will be the system that comes after the current TD#4. The associated wave should be coming off Africa around Tuesday of this coming week.

If you are in the Southeast, please start preparations for a hurricane. Do NOT wait til the last minute to figure out how to put up shutters.

More here.
www.planetmadness.com...

Link to the GFS model runs.

www.tropicaltidbits.com...

Found this Youtube video also.

Um, hurricanes are pretty much unpredictable , well , say a week out .

July 18 is a stretch, and your links really don't confirm anything.

Growing up on the east coast, I know how these storms work.

Try this site instead........

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

So glad i dont live in the southeast...lol all i have to worry about up here in the pnw is earthquakes, volcanos and super typhoons

a reply to: Groot

Born and raised in South Florida. I know how hurricanes work also. I agree it is a stretch, but the GFS models have been pretty accurate over the past few years. Now clearly they are only accurate to a few days out, but last year I did watch Hurricane Matthew follow the exact predicted track set forth by the GFS/Euro. I warned people weeks ahead at my work, and they, like you, looked at me funny.

a reply to: xmaddness

Good... maybe trump will move the us to mexico... canada welcomes mexico.

a reply to: Aeshma

Have fun i wish y'all the best

originally posted by: xmaddness
a reply to: Groot

Born and raised in South Florida. I know how hurricanes work also. I agree it is a stretch, but the GFS models have been pretty accurate over the past few years. Now clearly they are only accurate to a few days out, but last year I did watch Hurricane Matthew follow the exact predicted track set forth by the GFS/Euro. I warned people weeks ahead at my work, and they, like you, looked at me funny.

Tis why I moved to Kentucky. Got to stressed out on hurricanes. I understand why they looked at you funny. Mathew was nothing.

LOL !

It's way too early to predict with any certainty. There may be a hurricane, but they keep adjusting where it's going and where it will make landfall right up until the last hours.

Trying to tell us there will be one that will hit the SE US over a week out is pretty sketchy.

This time of year, everyone should be watching the tropics and prepared anyhow.

It's still a little early to call any hurricane watch.The models are pretty decent but to call a system that hasn't even left Africa yet a danger is premature. Anyone who lives in hurricane prone areas should have already done some annual preparing over a month ago. I live well inland, but have felt the affects of big ones in the past. Long treck hurricanes are fun but to watch, and I do pay attention to low pressure systems coming out of West Africa, but not until they come a bit into the Atlantic. It is always worth remembering that even though some of the worst originate in West Africa, they sometimes form much closer like Andrew. Basic preps for the season should have been done before June.

Dude, they couldn't even predict Charley's landfall a few hours before it took a hard right into Punta Gorda. Tampa was still supposed to get it when it started the lurch eastward.
Calling something this far out is spit-balling in the dark, at best.

I'm about 120 miles from the Gulf Coast, and I'm far more worried about being carried off by these giant mosquitoes lately.

I've lived through Elena, Opal, Danny, Georges, Ivan, and Katrina.

I think I'll be okay if this storm develops into a hurricane.

a reply to: xmaddness

I live on the coast of Texas, literally, stones throw away from the Gulf.

It's always good to be prepared and watching the depressions coming out of Africa is something we all pay attention to this time of year.

But this is a little far out yet, worth watching; give it a few more days.

mg

Nope. Highly unlikely. The TD that just formed is already falling apart due to dry air and wind shear.

Here is a link to a GFS super ensemble, no indication of a hurricane appoaching the east coast.

weather.unisys.com...

originally posted by: MissCoyote
So glad i dont live in the southeast...lol all i have to worry about up here in the pnw is earthquakes, volcanos and super typhoons

ummm . . . . ain't a typhoon just another word for a hurricane?

a reply to: xmaddness

It's early in the season for a Cape Verde storm but it's been hot in the mid Atlantic since March. We had a very very mild winter again. I don't know what the conditions in the eastern Atlantic are now. If the water is warm enough yet to worry about a monster storm forming.
Most systems coming off the cape don't develope or flip northward mid way across and die in the colder water especially this early.
Most storms effecting the eastern U.S. at this time of year form in the southern Caribbean.
I'm a weather fan and I live in the mid Atlantic region and I'm used to storms and have been studying their habits for many decades.
I won't worry about a Cape storm too much but of course will watch it.

a reply to: jefwane

Andrew was a Cape Verde storm it came off of Africa.

a reply to: jrod

i was going to mention that, watched it for a couple of days while they said 85% chance of formation. then on wednesday night they said that it was losing strength and going to be come some kind of rogue with less than 30% chance of forming into anything with any strength. which i thought was weird because after 55 years living in fl, i've never heard of a TS or TD being called a ___ rogue.

Thanks for the heads up.... I'm far enough away where we only get hit with the rain usually, or it will spawn a few tornadoes.

Definitely a novice hurricane tracker though, ever since Hugo 86 and Andrew 91 I think that was the year, hit the southeast US. I travel through out the southeast and seeing areas I knew before and recently after they got hit was just unbelievable.

I swear sometimes on the big or fast moving tropical storms that do come through my area 600 plus miles away ,you can smell the ocean in the rain.

ummm . . . . ain't a typhoon just another word for a hurricane?

Both are tropical cyclones.

The names are used based on location.

TD#4

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