As a supporter of free market principles, I'm having to face the reality of our automated future

a reply to: Bluntone22

It has been ending labor hence the 7+ million jobs less than we had in 1979.

The data is on my side.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ixc77

How did industry replace the 7+ million jobs that have been lost since 1979??

I assume you are referring to statistics in regards to the manufacturing industry? Industries change. It's up to the individual to compensate and adapt. And unless 7+ million people died of starvation due to those same supposed loss of jobs, I feel safe in assuming they found other means of employment and provision. Likely in related industry.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ixc77

How did industry replace the 7+ million jobs that have been lost since 1979??

Welfare.
You cannot trust US labor bureau stats since they fail to include those not looking for work, off unemployment or on disability.

There will be new jobs created, but I do think we are getting to a point that the old rules don't necessarily apply. More and more jobs are being replaced and I think it goes beyond some robots driving widgets. The rate of this change is accelerating and I wonder if the workforce can adapt fast enough.

It isn't just low skilled jobs, but even high skilled jobs are at risk. I work in finance and I know for fact my job is at risk. I've already started planning my next moves because I could be obsolete in as little as five years. I make a couple hundred grand a year right now.

The other issue is that our work force is far out of touch with the skills required in this modern economy. We have huge swaths of the population that can barely read and write so how are they going to adapt to an economy that is centered around jobs requiring high amounts of education?

originally posted by: Asktheanimals

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ixc77

How did industry replace the 7+ million jobs that have been lost since 1979??

Welfare.
There are entire counties throughout the Rust Belt where less people work than those who don't.

How come they didn't adapt as others would suggest?

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: Asktheanimals

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ixc77

How did industry replace the 7+ million jobs that have been lost since 1979??

Welfare.
There are entire counties throughout the Rust Belt where less people work than those who don't.

How come they didn't adapt as others would suggest?

Because adaptation takes action at an economic/evolutionary level. As a single person, you cannot adapt in our economy to unemployment. But as a nation, we could.

a reply to: Edumakated

How does a 40 year old or a 45 year old start studying technology which can may require up to 10 years of education just to get relevant adapt fast enough to sustain a living while learning??

a reply to: toysforadults

Many places were dependent upon key industries that required little skill.
When those closed for moved to China that only left service industries.
You only need so many cashiers and janitors.
Lack of skills prevents people from becoming self-employed by starting their own business.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Bluntone22

It has been ending labor hence the 7+ million jobs less than we had in 1979.

The data is on my side.

You're article doesn't say anything about the manufacturing jobs the left the United States for other countries. So you are saying we have lost only 7 million manufacturing jobs to other countries? I would say the number in higher than 7 million. We haven't lost jobs, only relocated them.

a reply to: Edumakated

I generally agree with what you have pointed out, but, Huge swathes that can't read and write? You're surely not referring to the populations for which automation is a purported concern? Higher education is a farce; it certainly doesn't teach the skills needed to deal with life, and in many cases barely covers the knowledge one needs to perform a job adequately. Most knowledge is gained by experience, on the job. Paid internships, apprenticeships, etc...are the positions one should try to find as a grade school graduate. It's much more practical, in my opinion.

originally posted by: Asktheanimals
a reply to: toysforadults

Many places were dependent upon key industries that required little skill.
When those closed for moved to China that only left service industries.
You only need so many cashiers and janitors.
Lack of skills prevents people from becoming self-employed by starting their own business.

Factory jobs don't require little skill.

You bring one of the pencil pushers in our offices out onto the printing floor and try to teach them how to print a quality job and they fall apart in days.

a reply to: toysforadults

McDonald's workers were granted $15 an hour in many places. A mgr said "You won. And 75% of you are immediately terminated."

It was cheaper to keep on just few...to handle the new self-service kiosks pictured below. Be careful what you wish for!

a reply to: toysforadults

I think the economy will not grow at a pace fast enough to justify the need for such machines. If the machines can produce goods and services faster than the demand I think we'll be okay with some primitive stuff.

a reply to: ixc77

The general problem I have with the argument that automation will ruin us, without socialism to save us ( in the form of UBI), is that at some level there will still need to be people manufacturing the robots that are manufacturing. The population grows, and sometime slows, but will grow until our basic needs have trouble being kept. Natural laws will inevitably keep things in check. Even if we reach a point like in Star Trek, where things are made for free and no one suffers for basic needs...Well, look at the Maker/ hand made product revival. There's a growing return to farming on the personal level. People appreciate people and things made by people. Even when all our 'jobs' are taken by smart, agile machines, there will still be a need for community and personal trade. I really believe society (individuals) will self-correct things without having to fret about it all that much. There'll be growing pains, sure. But as little faith I have in humanity, generally speaking, I have a lot of faith in the many individuals that care. The rest can come along, or not. But, as I see it, we have a very bright future ahead of the bumps.

a reply to: mysterioustranger

Why do we want these jobs?

Why do people want to slave away when we can be doing other things and taking advantage of the economy?

a reply to: mysterioustranger

It matters not if the employees make $8 or $15-those machines are going to be put into place.

If there is a way to fold efficiencies into the business, it is going to happen.

The real question is are those efficiencies going to be passed on to the customers and are wages going to increase as skill needed to run the restaurant increases.

originally posted by: audubon
This "robo-jobocalypse" scenario gets trotted out every summer when the newspapers are short of news. Other firm favourites include "Nick Bostrom says we might be living in a simulated universe" and "OMG antibiotics are going to stop working".

I'll believe it when I see it, and not before. Robots might be good for certain 'mindless' tasks, but artificial intelligence doesn't exist yet and there is no reason to suppose that (if it ever happens) it will be at a useful standard. So far the crowning glory of the theoretical field called "AI" is a computer program that can win at the Japanese board-game Go.

Not exactly SkyNet, in other words.

AI is there, you just don't see it. I once did a literature survey that started off looking at textile manufacturing then looked at every type of technology.

Textile looms - it took four artisans to make one item, and no two items had exactly the same stitch pattern due to mistakes. A punched card operated loom allowed for perfect patterning every time, and just one operator. We had the Luddite rebellion over this. Now one technician can supervise fifteen carpet weaving looms with multiple colours and a Photoshop artist working upstairs doing custom designs. This applies to clothing fabrics as well. We produce so much clothing that the charity shops have to give what they don't sell secondhand locally to Africa.

Print shops - For the average person, if they wanted to get something printed, they would have to go to a print shop, have a consultation, get the design layout prototyped and reviewed. Now using any word processor and a in-jet printer, they can choose the fonts they want to use, the font size, italics, bold, styles, auto text formatting. Whole newspapers
just replaced entire shopfloors of print workers with a workstation/server network and laser printers. We had the Wapping Dispute over this.

Telephone exchanges. The Western world used to employ millions of telephone operators to route phone calls. They were replaced by Strowger electro-mechanical telephone exchanges (saving space), then by digital systems (saving even more space), then VOIP over fibre-optic networks and now with VLSI, a telephone exchange in a cabinet. This also replaced the telegram boys used to deliver messages.

Elevator cabs. These used to have a human operator. Now they are all automatic.

Universities use basic AI to plan the times for course lectures across campus.

Automation:

Digital currency. Eliminates the need for checkout clerks to have to spend time counting out the change due.

Self-serve checkouts. Eliminate the checkout clerk.

Home-delivery service by supermarkets. Eliminates the checkout process.

Online delivery and online app downloads. Eliminates the need to drive into town and go shopping.

Smartphones. Eliminated File-o-Faxes, the need for a netbook, laptop or desktop for reading Email.

As technology evolves, it's getting more unobtrusive. So we'll probably end up having smartphones that will fit inside a snazzy pair of sunglasses rather than looking like Joe 90.

There may be a small correction in the jobs needed at best. Machines will always need operational help.
Kind of like power tools.

The problem with replacing everyone with robots is the corporations won't have anyone to buy their junk.

So they wont kill the host that feeds them, or they will die too.

The military industrial complex will always need warm bodies to dance in the ritual of blood and death.

We're just getting started, believe me!

originally posted by: ixc77
a reply to: ixc77

The general problem I have with the argument that automation will ruin us, without socialism to save us ( in the form of UBI), is that at some level there will still need to be people manufacturing the robots that are manufacturing. The population grows, and sometime slows, but will grow until our basic needs have trouble being kept. Natural laws will inevitably keep things in check. Even if we reach a point like in Star Trek, where things are made for free and no one suffers for basic needs...Well, look at the Maker/ hand made product revival. There's a growing return to farming on the personal level. People appreciate people and things made by people. Even when all our 'jobs' are taken by smart, agile machines, there will still be a need for community and personal trade. I really believe society (individuals) will self-correct things without having to fret about it all that much. There'll be growing pains, sure. But as little faith I have in humanity, generally speaking, I have a lot of faith in the many individuals that care. The rest can come along, or not. But, as I see it, we have a very bright future ahead of the bumps.

In our small high street, we have around 45 coffee shops and 20 hairdressers, not including nail bars, clothing shops, bars and restaurants.