Asteroid 2012 TC4 Could Come As Close As 2000 Miles From The Surface Of The Earth

Asteroid: "Could Come As Close As" = Nothing to be excited about.



Vegas Ad: "Could Win As Much As" = Nothing to be excited about.

originally posted by: carewemust
Asteroid: "Could Come As Close As" = Nothing to be excited about.



Vegas Ad: "Could Win As Much As" = Nothing to be excited about.

According to the available data it isn't expected to come any closer than .003 LD. Excited now?

IF this would hit Earth the damage estimates would be all about trajectory, speed, DENSITY and location.

If it is chondritic or an achondrite (stone like) , it will most likely detonate before striking earth. You could get a Tunguska type of effect if it is a shallow angle, but an atmospheric detonation over water will not produce much of a tsunami.

If it is an IRON, all bets off here. These can punch right through the atmosphere without losing much mass or speed. A steep angle and moderate speed would produce something similar to the Barringer Meteor Crater near Winslow, Arizona, if it was in the range of 40 meters.

According to David Kring, PhD, who did an extensive analysis of what happened at Winslow, the animals within 3 to 4 km of the impact site would have been subjected to winds exceeding 2000 km/hour and killed. A 50% casualty rate would occur between 9 and 14 km of the impact site with devastation out to a 40km radius.

A 30-40 meter Iron falling in water at 4-7km/s can produce a sizable tsunami if is close enough to land.

An Iron would also have a greater affinity for Earth due to gravity, which would of course influence it's orbit. By how much is for the mathematicians.

So, in the worst case where this could strike Earth, you don't want it to be an Iron.

originally posted by: MissSmartypants
a reply to: MissSmartypants

And just to give some perspective, the weather satelites orbit the earth at around 22,000 miles from the surface.

Now i do enjoy your thread and I think it was well informed but the perspective you are using isn't really giving much, since Weather satellites are considered "medium earth orbit" which range anywhere from 2000km to 36000km, there are other satellites that orbit much much closer.

originally posted by: caf1550

originally posted by: MissSmartypants
a reply to: MissSmartypants

And just to give some perspective, the weather satelites orbit the earth at around 22,000 miles from the surface.

Now i do enjoy your thread and I think it was well informed but the perspective you are using isn't really giving much, since Weather satellites are considered "medium earth orbit" which range anywhere from 2000km to 36000km, there are other satellites that orbit much much closer.

I read that weather satellites orbit in highearth orbit which makes for a much more dramatic comparison than a low earth orbit satellite.

a reply to: MissSmartypants



Looking left. Hmmm.

Just to follow up on why Irons are so deadly:
Another thing that Irons can do is massively fragment, at cosmic velocity through the atmosphere, while not detonating. This is different as well. A good example is Sikhote Alin, which fell in the mountains of that name, southeastern Russia, in 1947.

Everyone should read about this event and what happened there. It is a great study of the many topographical effects that meteorite impacts can produce. There is so much online, so go pick a few.

Long story short, this Iron bolide fragmented into thousands of "missiles" as it plowed it's way through our atmosphere. Imagine a GIANT shotgun. Hundreds of craters from a foot wide to 50 feet wide, trees chopped in pieces, many with the shrapnel embedded in them. Amazingly no casualties to humans, only to the wildlife, which had a very bad day. There was so much metal in the ground, it is one of the most available meteorites to collect.

The mass was estimated at somewhat under 1000 tons, which is well within the topic size we are talking about.

originally posted by: charlyv
Just to follow up on why Irons are so deadly:
Another thing that Irons can do is massively fragment, at cosmic velocity through the atmosphere, while not detonating. This is different as well. A good example is Sikhote Alin, which fell in the mountains of that name, southeastern Russia, in 1947.

Everyone should read about this event and what happened there. It is a great study of the many topographical effects that meteorite impacts can produce. There is so much online, so go pick a few.

Long story short, this Iron bolide fragmented in thousands of "missiles" as it plowed it's way through our atmosphere. Imagine a GIANT shotgun. Hundreds of craters from a foot wide to 50 feet wide, trees chopped in pieces, many with the shrapnel embedded in them. Amazingly no casualties to humans, only to the wildlife, which had a very bad day. There was so much metal in the ground, it is one of the most available meteorites to collect.

The mass was estimated at somewhat under 1000 tons, which is well within the topic size we are talking about.

Thank you for your informative and interesting contribution to this thread. Much appreciated.

a reply to: MissSmartypants

Thanks and you are welcome. I study them at length and quite a collector as well.
And thanks for bringing up a cool asteroid threat thread!

The asteroid should be close enough for astronomers to begin observing it again in August or September. At that time they should be able to narrow its path down. I wonder if they'll tell us if its bad news.

They should also be able to determine its size a little better as well.

a reply to: MissSmartypants

Cool thread. S&F

I hope NASA and ESA get going on that DART program. It's supposed to be done by 2022 so I'm thinking it might be a tad bit later.

DART

originally posted by: carewemust
Asteroid: "Could Come As Close As" = Nothing to be excited about.



Vegas Ad: "Could Win As Much As" = Nothing to be excited about.

There is no risk of this hitting the earth yet.

Even though 2012 TC4is listed on the Sentry Risk Table, there is no chance of an Earth impact before October 11, 2020.

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov...

Probably the only way this could ever hit Earth on this orbit, is if it was loosely packed and fragments into smaller pieces. Then they will trail behind each other since there is a loss of kinetic energy as each piece has a different mass. Earth gravity would then have a different effect on them and if close enough, could pull them in. Not likely, but plausible.

Spaceweather.com (home)

They've updated the distance to 0.1 LD and size as 16 meters.

This is up on astronomynow.com - A very close encounter.

It is a time lapse photo and the dot in the middle is 2012 TC4. Not impressive yet.

Rocktober Is Coming!

My recording of the asteroid flyby last night: