Help me understand---Why Autonomous Cars?

a reply to: enlightenedservant

That's a great observation and one I'd not thought of.

OTOH, however, I live out in the country, just off a heavily truck trafficked highway, and seriously, the thought of a 70,000 pound 18 wheeler coming at me with no driver just plain gives me the creep out!

I'm kind of hoping the Teamsters Union will take the Railroad Unions approach to this and force regulations requiring a "human" behind every autonomously controlled steering wheel, just like the Railroad Unions forced the need for Trains to have "Firemen" in every train, although of course......they no longer shovel coal!

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: lordcomac

Yea, I've thought a lot about that. My thinking is.....its not going to work terribly well until ONLY AV cars are allowed on certain roads or jurisdictions. Here's why!

Grandma gets on the Interstate through Bumpy City, she's doing 35 in the fast lane.....oblivious! All the AV cars behind her will slow to 35. Driven cars in the next lane will speed by at the posted 65, making getting out from behind Grandma impossible. But someone tries it anyway, and jumps in front of another AV car, whose computer slams on the brakes to avoid a collision and the "driven" car behind it can't react fast enough.

A "mix" of these vehicles sharing the road is the pathway to doom and torment!

Yeah, that is the problem with the tech. It is hard to predict unpredictable behavior. While there are rules of the road, not every one follows them to the letter and every situation requires assessing what is going on, not simply just following rote logic.

a reply to: Aldakoopa

it will only work to take more freedom away from the average person.

And man, aint that the truth! In the article he points this out. Its Big Brother on steroids and it has the Elites jumping for joy, not only because of the control it will give them but because the social engineering possibilities are endless. Gone will be the day of the family driving to the National Parks. They'll be forced onto a bus with countless others and will be herded around like the typical cluster of Japanese tourists visiting NYC.

God, what an awful prospect.

In the end it comes down to money.

Automated vehicles will cut down on traffic, DUIs, wear and tear on roads, teenage girls driving,...

All this will save cities and States tons and tons of money, which they will then be able to use to line their pockets.

Once issues of liability are hashed out between manufacturers, insurance companies and States, it will cost too much to drive yourself.

It will also save trucking, taxi, food delivery companies lots of money. They won't have to pay drivers or be constrained by DOT regulations on hours driving.

That's the sound of inevitability Mr Anderson.

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
a reply to: TonyS

It makes way more sense if you think of it as "autonomous vehicles" and not just "autonomous cars".

The shipping industry will probably be the first and the most effected industry. Just think about all of the truck & train drivers who would be replaced. Then public transportation in major cities would likely be next, seeing as some major cities already have autonomous forms of public transportation. By the time average citizens start purchasing them in large numbers, the technology would've already paid for itself many times over.

Truckers are dead in the water. There is still the "last mile" problem and I suspect there will be some truckers who take over once the big rigs reach congested cities. The benefits are enormous. Trucks could literally drive 24 hours. Shipping costs would go down immensely.

The one thing that is going to have to happen though is the entire road infrastructure will need to be upgrades. The tech relies on LIDAR, RADAR, Cameras etc to recognize signs and lanes. Many of our roads are simply not in good enough shape and the tech not advanced enough to recognize nuances. Here is a video of a Tesla hitting a barrier after a lane shifts abuptly at a construction site. A human driver would most likely not have been caught off guard. Of course, this is another reason I think people trusting this tech right now in all but the most straight wide open highways are idiots.

a reply to: mclarenmp4

Hmm, I'm less resisting than I am questioning.

For one thing, it seems a seriously damaged business model except for the companies that supply Uber and Lyft.

But its also the question of..........are people really that willing to give up that amount of freedom? One of the biggest problems they have today with getting commuters off the road is the working women with kids! I've heard it a hundred times, "I'd take the bus, but I have to have my car in case one of the kids gets sick at school!".

a reply to: TonyS

Well, do you worry about drunk drivers now? I'd think the idea of self driving 18 wheelers would be less scary than the thought of severely tired and possibly drunk people driving those 18 wheelers. When traveling at night, I already assume that everyone is intoxicated. So this would seem like progress from that perspective, even if only a little bit.

a reply to: enlightenedservant

Yea, it might be progress......until the tech hits a glitch or the computer crashes.......I guess we'll just have to see what the accident rates are. I long ago quit driving after dark because of the drunks. And just last week a teen texting damn near hit me head on while driving a narrow two lane highway. The texting teens should definitely be relegated to self-driving cars or the bus.

a reply to: TonyS

Everyone is thinking in the worst possible scenario, it makes no sense to me that they would make them unaffordable and only available for taxi firms etc.
We will still own and buy the cars, the only difference will be is that it's automated.

The Tesla is a bad example as it's not meant to be fully autonomous.
The better example would be the google cars which have driven millions of miles with only a couple of incidents, which were the result of another driver hitting them.

a reply to: Edumakated

I suspect they'll start in specific areas first, like in major cities (since they have much larger infrastructure budgets) and along the most expensive shipping routes. And by "expensive", I mean the areas with the highest trucker wages.

originally posted by: mclarenmp4
a reply to: TonyS

Everyone is thinking in the worst possible scenario, it makes no sense to me that they would make them unaffordable and only available for taxi firms etc.

Not me.

a reply to: mclarenmp4

the only difference will be is that it's automated.

So.......you really see people buying cars without steering wheels?

Or you see them buying "autonomous" capable? I could see that. If the cost isn't prohibitive.

Yes, there are some advantages, especially to city and apartment dwellers who might be better off paying for an Uber ride than buying a car. But the death of the automobile has been greatly exaggerated. For example, a Stanford Study predicts all fossil fuel vehicles will be gone in 8 years. Read the answers in this Slashdot article to see the absurdity of this. (I'm virtually equating electric and autonomous as they seem to go together.)

Now couple this with the fact that Uber is starting to charge people at variable rates depending on what Uber THINKS people will pay and you have set the stage for a dystopian transportation future. Of course, people sitting in LA traffic are already in that future today. The thing is, LA traffic is a result of big cities and a concentrated population. It's not that way in Pendleton, Oregon, and though city dwellers don't know it, much of the country's economy is based on the fly over states and smaller cites and towns. And THAT'S why you have an election map that looks like this:



That represents the election results by county and is the "America" city dwellers would prefer did not exist. But it must be taken into account in terms of the economic viability of the country as a whole, and though Uber and self-driving vehicles may be the answer for the blue areas on the map, it doesn't account for the vast majority of the country.

Well, technology necessitates the creation of more technology to cancel out the risk factor created by the technology. Too many distractions in driving now, the phones and distracting technology in people's possession while driving is causing lots of accidents.

They are looking at making talking on a cell phone illegal now in Michigan unless it is hands free.. They stated they are going to raise the fines when caught and this bill is being voted on. The State is going to get rich on our use of phones while driving I guess. That is how it works.

a reply to: TonyS

No system created by humans is perfect. The real question is will the accident rates w/self driving vehicles be lower than the accident rates of human driven vehicles? If so, then it's worth it.

Check out the graph on this page (HERE). It shows that since 1945, a whopping 30,000 to 50,000+ Americans died every year from car crashes. If self driving technology can cut that number in half, that would be enormous! Even if it only decreased the number of car crash deaths by 10%, that would still save more lives every year than the number of people killed in the 9/11 terror attacks.

Demanding perfection will get us nowhere, especially when the existing situation is so flawed. It would be like rejecting airbags & seat belts because they're not 100% guaranteed to save the driver, even though they still increase the driver's chances of surviving.

Two things that I think will push this technology forward. One is that many people can't afford, or just don't buy cars the way they used to. My father used to buy a new car every year whether he needed to or not.

My car was 8 years old before I bought my barely existing car, which is 14 years old. I view a car as a necessary object that takes me where I need to be and brings me back. I don't want to spend one more dime for gas, oil and other required fluids for it's function, then I have to, nor do I want to pay ridiculous prices for insurance on a car that they will barely reimburse me, should it be totaled and I continue to live.

I noticed that my teenage nephew and his friends have no interest in cars or driving. When I ask them why they don't want to get their driver's license, they all state that they don't need them. I will have to admit that do have their parents and their grandparents on speed dial as their personal Uber service, without the cost.

Car dealerships are feeling the pinch from lack of sales. I guess they will need an alternative for the non-driving next generations and the Baby Boomers that are giving up their keys, but still want to remain mobile.

Then future development may not even require vehicles. We will become prisoners in our homes and live our lives through holograms. We will build our worlds around us and lock ourselves in.

a reply to: schuyler

I live in FOC, (Fly over country), and yea..........its going to be real interesting to see how this plays out. One guess is you'll be seeing bumper stickers that read "You'll take the Steering Wheel Away from me when you pry it from my cold dead fingers", on the back of Bubba's pick-em-up-truck.

You might be amazed to know, I daily see 1980's model GMC and Ford Diesel pick ups on the road.

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
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Check out the graph on this page (HERE). It shows that since 1945, a whopping 30,000 to 50,000+ Americans died every year from car crashes. If self driving technology can cut that number in half, that would be enormous! Even if it only decreased the number of car crash deaths by 10%, that would still save more lives every year than the number of people killed in the 9/11 terror attacks.

Yes!!!! This could be a huge life saver. Pretty much everyone has known someone who has been in a serious/fatal car crash. My daughter is now 15 and soon will be eligible for her driver's license and frankly, I'm scared to death of her being on the road with the crazy drivers out there. Every time I hear on the local news about another fatal crash due to alcohol, falling asleep at the wheel, texting, and just being reckless stupid drivers, I get a little more scared. Self driving vehicles can't happen fast enough for me.

Most people aint that bothered about their vehicle, all they want is to get to work on time and get home..probably these computer controlled vehicles will be cheap enough as they'll work 24x7 that someone will look at the maintenance/fuel/number of the f words when something else can just turn up and you not have to spend 20 mins finding a parking space etc.

V1 will be basically human controlled with the computer recording loads of data which probably for a lot of long distance driving is pretty simple so i'd imagine things like truck drivers will basically get the wagon onto the main road and let it go as here in the UK theres limits on truck drivers time at the wheel but if all you have to do is just get it to the motorway and then finish off the last mile or so will save a fortune.

a reply to: TonyS

One guess is you'll be seeing bumper stickers that read "You'll take the Steering Wheel Away from me when you pry it from my cold dead fingers", on the back of Bubba's pick-em-up-truck.

The timing is right. It falls right between the dying off of the car generation and the I don't want no stinking car generation.

There will still be those that are car hobbyist but the diehard car lovers are quickly dwindling.

originally posted by: eluryh22
a reply to: TonyS

Just a few (not connected) thoughts....

1) Every piece of electronic equipment fails at some point. Trying "reboot" while hurdling 60 miles per hour down the freeway is not something I'm looking forward to.

2) There have been times that I'm so exhausted in the morning I wouldn't mind hitting an auto-pilot to get an extra hours sleep.

3) Who is responsible when someone gets run over? The car owner? The "wireless" people?

4) When not exhausted or in traffic, I find driving very therapeutic. I don't want a machine telling me how to get to where I'm going.

5) One sad day, it will be illegal to drive yourself on public roads.

Modern cars already have over 100 electronic systems with microcontrollers. They don't use Microsoft Windows or have dozens of plug-and-play device drivers. They simply read sensor values and make the correct adjustments; electronic ignition timing to control pollution, anti skid braking, cruise control, air-bags, child-lock doors, and other systems.

The advantage of autonomous driving is that the system wouldn't get drunk, get distracted while changing the radio channel, getting the kids to stay still in their seats or get dazzled by a low sun on a Winters morning or evening.

If cars could inform each other of their location, they can avoid collisions even in fog, rain or snow. I'd like to see a separate system just to avoid collisions and perform an automatic emergency stop.