Russia's strategic bomber plans spell trouble for PAK-DA

The Russians have shifted gears on their plans for strategic bombers. Originally, they were going to be building and flying the PAK-DA next gen bomber within the next couple years. What the PAK-DA was going to be has changed a couple times. In press for a time, the Russian DefMin was stating it was going to be a hypersonic bird. Then it became a subsonic stealthy flying wing. That last has held out for some time now and if the PAK-DA actually comes to fruition, I suspect that is what they will fly.

However, recently, the first flight of the PAK-DA was postponed.

Then the Tu-160 White Swan was ordered back into production, in an upgraded form. The Russians have been streaming out how the M2 upgrade will use the same avionics as the PAK-DA and other technologies. This is…questionable at best. Avionics are very, VERY aircraft specific. What you fly a flying wing with would be rather different than a bolshoi swing wing.

That said, the claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense are now stating they are going to build 50 new Tu-160M2s as well as remanufacture/upgrade existing ones.

Oh, and the PAK-DA has been postponed for its first flight to 2025.

russianforces.org...

With the fact the PAK-DA isn't even being built as a flying prototype like was done with the PAK-FA(1), the continual postponement of the first flight (2017->2019->2021->2025), and the ordering of the 50 White Swans, it would seem the PAk-DA is transiting into the vaporware status for projects. Much like the touted Skat (yes, its real name), MiG-41 & LMFS projects, I suspect it will never really materialize.

The Russians almost assuredly just cannot afford the development at this time. Oil prices are too low. Sanctions are hitting too hard. China has only seen Russia as a usual yapping dog to keep Europe and the US distracted from its own ambitions. China remembers the border wars and when the Soviets asked the US to join it in a joint nuclear war against the Chinese. China wants Russia annoying but not strong.

In the future, it might be well to mark the Russian project as a Power Point Ranger case, rather than something real.

1. A wooden mockup was built and recently the Russians touted a full virtual (and supposedly) complete model as well. The PAK-FA had aerodynamic prototypes that did not use the same final materials flown initially or so it seems. The PAK-DA could have the same done to just get the avionics right…but is not.

www.ruaviation.com...

It's too expensive and not to mention 30 years too late. They are better off pouring funds into other programs.

a reply to: muzzleflash

Actually, if reports I've read coming out of Syria are correct (and I have no idea if they are since there's no way to corroborate them), the Su-25 desperately needs replacing based on its performance.

a reply to: anzha

What are those reports?

I haven't heard anything.

a reply to: muzzleflash

Link's in Russian. Google translate does an ok job.

bmpd.livejournal.com...

Here's something of a first order discussion of the Su-25s in Syria. It's not the only one.

1. Dumb bombs. Poor accuracy.

2. Problems with fuel tanks being too small. They had to rig replacements just to ferry the birds and that caused other problems.

3. Oxygen system problems (unclear if it lacks one or it has problems like the US has recently) forcing low flights.

4. I might be misreading it, but it also sounds like they have significant coms problems as well. That might be just operational issues rather than tech. However, with the note about how few Su-25s were fully upgraded by the start of the operation, it might be tech.

a reply to: anzha

Tu-160 upgrade delayed until 2023.

How long until the PAK-DA is canceled?

When the start buying F35,s

a reply to: anzha

The cockpit is unpressurized, safe limit is at 7000m. Due to flight route changes they had to climb to 9600m to make the distance.

www.ruaviation.com...

First flight of the PAK-DA is now being said to be 2025 to 2026. Production some time after.

I'm starting to smell a dead project here, folks.

Oh and the MiG-41 is now called the PAK-DP. If it ever happens, it has one of the worst acronyms ever. My inner 13 yo keeps snickering.

PAK DA will be a supersonic jet, that will rely more on speed and Stan-Off missiles and less on stealth for its survivability.
More emphasis will be put in the coming years to render the PAK DA also an unmanned strategic bomber in its 2nd version.

www.ruaviation.com...

More bad news for the PAK-DA. The Tu-160 upgrade will not complete until 2030.

By then the US will have been a generation ahead again..I think the Russians need a massive updating of the whole way they are doing business..

a reply to: Blackfinger

So long as oil stays below a certain point ($75/barrel, iirc), Russia can't afford even half her new programs.

Unfortunately, oil is on the rise.

Fortunately, fracking will put a ceiling on the oil price, keeping Russia from going affording everything.

Really unfortunately, that means more mess and greenhouse gases.

Doubly fortunately, it looks like the West and China are moving away from oil for vehicles.

Peak oil may be like coal: the peak in production is because we have moved onto cheaper, hopefully cleaner, alternatives.

a reply to: anzha

tass.com...

New engine. We'll see if this one works. Again, bad sign for the PAK-DA.

The Russian just cancelled, ahem, suspended development of the RS-26 ICBM because they didn't have the money to continue.

originally posted by: anzha
a reply to: Blackfinger

So long as oil stays below a certain point ($75/barrel, iirc), Russia can't afford even half her new programs.

Unfortunately, oil is on the rise.

Fortunately, fracking will put a ceiling on the oil price, keeping Russia from going affording everything.

Really unfortunately, that means more mess and greenhouse gases.

Doubly fortunately, it looks like the West and China are moving away from oil for vehicles.

Peak oil may be like coal: the peak in production is because we have moved onto cheaper, hopefully cleaner, alternatives.

the amount of oil the americans can frack is a tiny puddle compared to the output of the Arab states. they control the price of oil by controlling the volume they let hit the world market.

You guys keep thinki that you are self sufficient on oil. You are not. Nor on steel or Aluminium but that okay 'cause your president just raised the price to import it 25%.

a reply to: SmilingROB

We are not self sufficient, no.

However, you may want to check your assumptions.

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

As soon as the prices go up, fracking goes up: there are a lot of frackable deposits that are just waiting for the price point to be right. And prices are on the rise...

a reply to: anzha

www.janes.com...

I say the PAK-DA is done.

Ready to fight, Robert?

a reply to: anzha

More like incubated, probably. They don't just stop working on new stuff just because they are "remodeling" the old. There will still be a new bomber at some point, so there will still be a new bomber project. I don't think it indicates anything good for their timeline, though, no.

PAK-DA delayed again.

tass.com...

originally posted by: Flanker86
PAK DA will be a supersonic jet, that will rely more on speed and Stan-Off missiles and less on stealth for its survivability.
More emphasis will be put in the coming years to render the PAK DA also an unmanned strategic bomber in its 2nd version.

In your dreams.