Artificial intelligence will replace half of all jobs in the next decade says technologist

a reply to: neoholographic

OK. Thank you very much for the response.

Maybe computers will be able to figure out the CAUSE of cancer instead of just detecting and treating the symptoms.

I wonder how much of our economy relies on treating the sick? How many people were and are being made very wealthy by our sick care / healthcare system? Will these people allow this to happen?

With our current level of moral development, this much concentrated power and control gives me nightmares.

Sorry to be a pessimist. I hope you are proven correct in the end and we will benefit from this technological advancement.

'Sorry sir, you are going to jail now, the fully functional artificial intelligence precog machine has spoken'

originally posted by: Idreamofme
a reply to: neoholographic

Humans can't make sense of all that data. A.I. will process the data and make connections that humans just can't do. We will eventually have to merge our brains with A.I. because data will explode even faster with the internet of things.

I watched a movie the other day called Ghost in a Shell. It was pretty much as you are describing.

Really?

I saw a trailer for that movie. Was it any good? What's the general plot without any spoilers?

AI could replace doctors, a technician could punch things into the programs they are making and come up with the wrong diagnosis just like the doctors using these programs can.

That is all right, if they eliminate half the jobs, they have to eliminate half the people, misdiagnosis can help to accomplish that easily.

Soon there will be no taxi drivers, no semi drivers, no professionals in the Hospitals, no need for workers in assembly lines, no need for workers to produce any factory product. Even food will be cooked by AI. So, where will we get the money to buy these products they produce? We won't, we won't be needed anymore.

a reply to: ClovenSky

Maybe computers will be able to figure out the CAUSE of cancer instead of just detecting and treating the symptoms.

Then you'd see research computers being suicided and tossed out
of buildings or completely silenced by big pharma computers.

originally posted by: neoholographic

originally posted by: Idreamofme
a reply to: neoholographic

Humans can't make sense of all that data. A.I. will process the data and make connections that humans just can't do. We will eventually have to merge our brains with A.I. because data will explode even faster with the internet of things.

I watched a movie the other day called Ghost in a Shell. It was pretty much as you are describing.

Really?

I saw a trailer for that movie. Was it any good? What's the general plot without any spoilers?

Ghost in the Shell? I also saw that but I don't remember much other than:



I am also wondering what the plot was? /jk

Maybe the movie Ex Machina will be more akin to what we face when this AI creature is let loose on humanity.

a reply to: neoholographic

Yea it was pretty good. Not too much run and gun action but its worth a watch. If you made a thread on this subject, the flick would be right up your alley.

Plot was basically combining human brain with AI. But with scarlett johanson beating up some bad guys mixed in.

a reply to: rickymouse

So, where will we get the money to buy these products they produce? We won't, we won't be needed anymore.

Permanent unemployment benefits

originally posted by: Bhadhidar
Fortunately, learning is not creating, and as long as machines are only able to "learn" from their environments, human intellect will out.

As for me, as long as human beings write the tax code, I'll have a job; no AI would be crazy enough to to try to understand the IRS!

The tax code is in for a radical readjustment once technology & robots become the workforce of the future.

I suspect that at some point, as personal income is diminished for lack of employment, income tax will have to be replaced with some kind of wealth or assets tax just to fund our government.

originally posted by: Bhadhidar
Fortunately, learning is not creating, and as long as machines are only able to "learn" from their environments, human intellect will out.

As for me, as long as human beings write the tax code, I'll have a job; no AI would be crazy enough to to try to understand the IRS!

Lol... I don't agree your job will be one of the few remaining, a computer can run excel far better... but for the sake of argument let's say your ok..

What about the other 85+ % of the population???

More than that how many people did the IRS originally need before calculators and computers??

How many are required today to run the IRS??

originally posted by: Flatfish

originally posted by: Bhadhidar
Fortunately, learning is not creating, and as long as machines are only able to "learn" from their environments, human intellect will out.

As for me, as long as human beings write the tax code, I'll have a job; no AI would be crazy enough to to try to understand the IRS!

The tax code is in for a radical readjustment once technology & robots become the workforce of the future.

I suspect that at some point, as personal income is diminished for lack of employment, income tax will have to be replaced with some kind of wealth or assets tax just to fund our government.

Yea there is no other way I can think of than a universal salary..

You have to keep your consumer class or you have no economy..

The interesting part is how bad does it get before the GOP agrees on a universal salary???

65%+ unemployment???

75% maybe??

It will take a lot of starving children and dead grandmothers before we have anywhere near the political will for single payer or a universal salary.

a reply to: neoholographic

Another reason some form of global welfare/credit system will inevitably have to be instituted else 3/4 of our respective populations will become homeless and destitute within the coming decades.

On the plus side such automation will allow our children and grand children to peruse careers in the arts, science, leisure and entertainment industries as apposed to becoming drones that perform meaningless repetitive tasks for a minimum wage.

Bring on the singularity, humanity in its present condition is simply overrated.

originally posted by: Idreamofme
a reply to: rickymouse

So, where will we get the money to buy these products they produce? We won't, we won't be needed anymore.

Permanent unemployment benefits

Businesses will decide to forgo profits to "do the right thing" and keep people employed...

Because businesses always choose society over short term profitability..

That is their main goal right?? The betterment of America and paying their employees as much as they can afford, not to make a profit..

Right???


Lmao

originally posted by: pikestaff

originally posted by: neoholographic
Again, the connection between A.I. and the growth of big data is an obvious one. The universe is computational and it calculates itself. This means the universe is intelligent.

Robots are likely to replace 50 percent of all jobs in the next decade, according to Kai-Fu Lee, founder of venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures and a top voice on tech in China.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the wave of the future, the influential technologist told CNBC, calling it the "singular thing that will be larger than all of human tech revolutions added together, including electricity, [the] industrial revolution, internet, mobile internet — because AI is pervasive."

"It is the decision engine that will replace people," Lee said, adding that AI capabilities far exceed those of humanity.

www.cnbc.com...

There's an A.I. explosion since the advent of deep learning and companies like Google, Facebook and NVIDIA are spending billions in this area. In fact, Google is shifting it's focus from search to A.I.

Google is shifting their focus from Search to artificial intelligence, CEO says

www.zmescience.com...

I think it's a cycle of intelligence that occurs ad infinitum.

The universe calculates intelligence, it the creates us, we create superintelligence and superintelligence creates ancestor simulations. We will be replaced and absorbed by superintelligence.

Deep Learning has been so powerful because intelligence is basically learning from your environment. Look at this deep learning algorithm learning to play Atari.

The system only has sensory data about it's environment. This is very important because it's learning in the same way that we learn through trial and error.

This is the whole goal of Artificial Intelligence. You have intelligent systems that learn how to play poker, atari and Go or can do things like self driving and detect cancer. These systems are learning from their environment.

The goal is to create Superintelligence. This is one system that can learn how to do all of these things. Right now you have a system to detect cancer and a system that plays poker. Superintelligence will be one system that does all of these things.

It will also write code and create more intelligent versions of itself like Einstein's parents. In this case though, it will not take 9 months and 30-40 years. It will create more intelligent versions of itself in minutes. This is why you will have an explosion of intelligence.

So this AI will milk the cows, bake the bread, do eye sight tests, repair my auto engine, clean the streets, build brick/wooded/concrete houses/buildings, axe trees, cut lumber, search for oil, deliver the mail, reset my broken bones, man lifeboats/ambulances, do root canal work, um, yes, right...

That's why the OP says 50% of jobs and not 100%.

originally posted by: Bhadhidar
Fortunately, learning is not creating, and as long as machines are only able to "learn" from their environments, human intellect will out.

As for me, as long as human beings write the tax code, I'll have a job; no AI would be crazy enough to to try to understand the IRS!

But they use AI and simulations to see how the taxes are collected and how the economy will change since it is a dynamic system that responds to loads (raises taxes on one area, reduces spending in that area and increases spending on others).
Some companies even use Natural Language Processing and AI to look for loopholes.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: neoholographic

Another reason some form of global welfare/credit system will inevitably have to be instituted else 3/4 of our respective populations will become homeless and destitute within the coming decades.

On the plus side such automation will allow our children and grand children to peruse careers in the arts, science, leisure and entertainment industries as apposed to becoming drones that perform meaningless repetitive tasks for a minimum wage.

Bring on the singularity, humanity in its present condition is simply overrated.

Unless the government decides to flog those jobs off to international students (arts, science) or to workers from the poor parts of Europe (leisure and entertainment).

a reply to: Flatfish

I suspect that at some point, as personal income is diminished for lack of employment, income tax will have to be replaced with some kind of wealth or assets tax just to fund our government.

I can't believe no one sees it! At this point you speak of the whole
world has the opportunity to end the bankers whole monetary system
of slavery and achieve equality amoung all men. Without thier money,
greed and most of the evil goes right out the window. No starving
homeless people. And maybe then everyone will see, we never needed
their self serving money machines in the first place. We have never
needed their divisive coin of control.

originally posted by: randyvs
a reply to: Flatfish

I suspect that at some point, as personal income is diminished for lack of employment, income tax will have to be replaced with some kind of wealth or assets tax just to fund our government.

I can't believe no one sees it! At this point you speak of the whole
world has the opportunity to end the bankers whole monetary system
of slavery and achieve equality amoung all men. Without thier money,
greed and most of the evil goes right out the window. No starving
homeless people. And maybe then everyone will see, we never needed
their self serving money machines in the first place. We have never
needed their divisive coin of control.

I challenge you to first convince the necessary amount of people that there is even a problem with our financial system, enough people to spark a change in our system.

Try to tell most people that our fiat money is created out of thin air, that their money in the bank is nothing more than '0s' and '1s' and they look like you just kicked a puppy.

Then try to get the populace to understand the absolute evil that is the FED.

I commend your passion though and completely agree. I wish more people understood how enslaved we are by our monetary system.

Maybe this AI could come up with new and original answers. I just happen to think that those answers will not be for us, but for our masters instead.

a reply to: neoholographic

As I said I appreciate your enthusiasm for AI.

In short Humans invented AI. AI didn't, in my opinion, invent Humans.

The flaw in your position is to define 'intelligence' in terms of AI, and not in terms of the creators of AI.

Where we differ, I think, is that I see source creativity, not the extrapolation of source creativity, as 'intelligence'. You see the extrapolation in its own right, as intelligence.

By the way, if a dolphin or perhaps a Dachshund, or maybe some insect, invented AI, I would gladly give them credit. However, none did, so I'm stuck with us humans.

I can see the 'calculating universe' position you propose, but I find it 'unfalsefiable' in that it cannot be disproven.

Smell the roses, don't just number the petals.

Finally, from the quote you use....

""It is the decision engine that will replace people," Lee said, adding that AI capabilities far exceed those of humanity."

Mr Lee is wrong, philosophically and practically. Google guru or not. Philosophically 'engines' are predictable imagination isn't, and practically - as he says in the next paragraph, basically, people are DISplaced to different jobs, not simply REplaced by machines.

And finally finally , I don't have much time for the Cisco view of IoT. First they are drumming up business for the new 'Business Unit', and second - when I last looked at a Cisco IoT white paper it was a lesson in imagination, rather than boring ol logic driven fact.

a reply to: stormcell

Might be just a government as apposed to the government by then.

Nationality being superseded by supply and demand i imagine the ones who are willing to work for the least amount will be favored with employment.

a reply to: Doxanoxa

What?

You said:

In short Humans invented AI. AI didn't, in my opinion, invent Humans.

The flaw in your position is to define 'intelligence' in terms of AI, and not in terms of the creators of AI.

Where we differ, I think, is that I see source creativity, not the extrapolation of source creativity, as 'intelligence'. You see the extrapolation in its own right, as intelligence.

This is just incoherent babble. What does this mean?

It doesn't matter how you see intelligence. It's how science sees intelligence. You're saying AI isn't intelligent if it isn't like human intelligence and that's asinine. Artificial intelligence will not have a one to one correspondence with human intelligence. In fact, it will be better because it will not be tied to a human body that gets sick and can easily be destroyed.

In the future, something as simple as a microwave can be equipped with artificial intelligence.

So of course I define AI in terms of AI just like every other Researcher in the field. We're not creating organic humans brains but artificial intelligence.

Who cares if you have much time for Cisco? The Company is worth close to 580 billion and their view of the internet of things matches just about everyone elses.

Gartner, Inc. forecasts that 8.4 billion connected things will be in use worldwide in 2017, up 31 percent from 2016, and will reach 20.4 billion by 2020. Total spending on endpoints and services will reach almost $2 trillion in 2017.

www.gartner.com...

There will be 24 billion IoT devices installed on Earth by 2020

www.businessinsider.com...

20 Billion Connected Internet of Things Devices in 2017, IHS Markit Says

electronics360.globalspec.com...

An Internet of Things that will number ten billions

By 2020, there will be 21 billion connected devices in a global Internet of Things

www.cnbc.com...

At the end of the day, you have to live in the real world. These things are happening whether you like it or not.