What are the chances of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident?

What are the chances of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident?

Better than Arabs with box cutters flying into the World Trade center.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: bobs_uruncle

It makes a huge difference. If North Korea can't get to where the water is 15,000 feet deep to do something, then that sort of makes it difficult to pull off don't you think?

I wasn't saying north Korea would do it lol, that's not normally what a false flag is about

Cheers - Dave

a reply to: bobs_uruncle

I'm well aware of what a false flag is. But notice what all of them have in common? The country that was framed had the capability to do it. If they hit a ship, and it's beyond what North Korea has the capability of doing, then that sort of blows the whole False Flag thing you know.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Why would any of N Korea's actual military ability come into play? All that needs to be said is that it happened, make up the rest. Then off to the profitable world of war we go.

a reply to: seasonal

Because it won't be just the US vs NK, and far too many people that are highly placed, and knowledgeable about their real capabilities would know that they couldn't have done it. And that would make things harder for them to pull off. The point of a false flag is to blame someone else for something they could really do. Not just throw a bunch of crap at the wall and hope it sticks.

They'd be far better off faking an attack on the South, which would get them to invoke the mutual defense treaty, and kick things off, than to try to hit a US ship far out to sea. If the South isn't convinced that North Korea did it, then they're not going to go to war. And they're not going to allow themselves to be dragged kicking and screaming into a war either. They have far too much to lose.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Guess we will have to wait and see. I am of the opinion that if this is what is wanted, it will be.

a reply to: seasonal

South Korea is going to get absolutely hammered if a war starts with North Korea. They're not going to allow someone else to kick things off and force them to go through that, with all the casualties they would take and infrastructure they'd lose and have to replace.

The Vinson will leave the area as scheduled, with nothing happening. The exercise will end, and they'll come home.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Plausibility is the key.

If it's known that NoKo can't do the deed, and the deed gets done anyway? Kinda defeats the purpose of the false flag...IMHO.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: sg1642

Being that far out to sea, not much. The North Korean navy isn't a blue water navy, and is designed to operate close to shore, where they can put troops into the South. They might have 14 frigate or corvette class ships, but almost all of them are 70s or earlier designs. Getting one of those even close to a carrier group would be a non-trivial exercise.

I would think NK subs would pose the most direct threat to US / allied naval assets. They have a few Chinese / Soviet subs from back in the day. Granted they are older however they are still formidable.

As for North Korea I am surprised China has not "removed" Un and replaced him with someone a little more stable mentally. NK actions are now adversely affecting China. NK recently attacked China (without mentioning their name) for their stance. China ended coal imports and is in the process of possibly ending fuel shipments to NK.

If the US is going to act I would think China would try to act first in order to maintain the "buffer". Also dont forget when wikileaks did their diplomatic cable dump a Chinese diplomat said the Chinese government would not be opposed to a unified korea under the south. The only caveat is american forces could not be deployed north of the current DMZ.

a reply to: seasonal

Yeah, right.

South Korea is going to have a whole lot to say in the matter.

North Korea has had half a century plus to zero their artillery for the opening salvos. ...and how many of those artillery pieces might just be loaded with something a bit more drastic than High Explosives? Gas, maybe? Germs, maybe? Nuclear, maybe?

In no way, shape or form, is South Korea going to go along with this. Because it won't stay secret. When the secret comes out, and it would, the restive population of South Korea is going to be pissed, and not terribly shy about expressing it. Hello military overthrow of the govt, and riots in the streets.

a reply to: Xcathdra

The best sub they had was the Romeo, and they were in the process of removing them for the Sang-O and Sang-O II classes.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Xcathdra

The best sub they had was the Romeo, and they were in the process of removing them for the Sang-O and Sang-O II classes.

Either or I would say the sub threat is at #1.

a reply to: Xcathdra

The Sang-O and Sang-O II are coastal boats. Theoretically, they can go 1500 nm, but their test depth is only about 500 feet. That limits their usefulness. The Romeo is old and noisy, so again, is limited in what it can do against a true ASW system.

Isn't it, at the end of the day, a bit more worrying that something "unfortunate" might happen between the US and China?
There has, after all, been a lot of sabre rattling in this area of the Pacific for years now, and this really just seems like yet another escalation.

BT

a reply to: beetee

Carrier groups are off Korea every year for Foal Eagle and Valiant Shield. Sometimes multiple groups. China is used to it by now.

a reply to: Zaphod58

But you must admit that the current political climate must add a certain edge to things?

I don't think the Chinese government are very thrilled by the presence, although they might be used to it.

Just as the US would probably be a bit cross with a Chinese naval presence outside it's coastline, doing naval excercises with Mexico.

I think there has been a lot of warnings to deescalate from many parts, China included.

If you add an unstable regime, thinking it is about to be toppled, and in posession of lots of weapons, the potential for a disaster is really there.

BT

a reply to: Zaphod58

Sorry, South Korea, in my opinion, is small potatoes. They have no say in who is going to do what.

a reply to: seasonal

They have a hell of a lot more say in the matter than we do, considering they stand to lose a few hundred thousand people minimum, and billions of dollars in industry.

Or is North Korea going to just ignore them and try to attack the US, who they know they can barely scratch outside our forces in the area.

They'll probably hit Japan too and do a lot of damage there too.

a reply to: Zaphod58

If the MIC wants to have another false flag I doubt they will check with SK, just like they didn't check with Vietnam.

a reply to: seasonal

And SK will blow it out of the water to keep from getting dragged into a war they don't want. They keep a damn close eye on everything North Korea does, and will be able to tell almost immediately if it was them or not. And they won't hesitate to blow the whistle if it keeps a war from starting. If a war is going to start, it will start on their terms.

South Korea, and the times we're in now, are a hell of a lot different than they were in Vietnam.