Federal Reserve to Raise Interest Rates Next Week (Traders see 100% probability of this)

I'm currently working on a larger project outlining the 2008 financial crisis & many of the key players (organizations & individuals) from the crisis, but needed to "scratch my itch" for economy talk before that. Feds raising interest rates is a great chance to do this:


The buzz on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates next week, due to the performance of the US economy.

Futures traders are fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its March 14-15 meeting. On Wednesday, Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability reflected a 100% probability of a hike next week.

www.businessinsider.com...

Meanwhile, projections for GDP growth have not panned out as many thought they would for Q1, with GDP rising about 1.2%

As recently as Feb. 3, the Atlanta Fed was projecting 2.7 percent growth for the first three months of 2017.

The Atlanta Fed was pretty far off, wouldn't you say?

Those looking for a rapid uptick in the U.S. economy probably will have to tone down their expectations, at least for now. In the near term, growth projections, at least by the top-line measurement of gross domestic product, are looking a whole lot more tepid than they did a few months ago.

Economic Growth Expectations Are Quietly Falling Through the Floor

Budget deficit will also have to increase in order to maintain any level of economic growth, at least according to David Tepper (Founder & President of Appaloosa Management, an American Hedge Fund)

The U.S. economy cannot grow faster without its budget deficit rising, either through increased spending or lower taxes, according to one investment strategist.

If the US economy is going to grow faster, the US budget deficit has to rise: Strategist

What do my buds at ATS think about the current state of the economy and the expectation of the Federal Reserve planning to raise interest rates next week?

a reply to: FamCore

The interest rate hike is already factored in at this point. Consumer confidence is high, business outlook is high, people are employed and the market is riding the Trump effect.

This interest rate hike is a sign of a healthy economy. We had an interest rate of zero for most of Obama's 8 years because business and investors were so depressed.

What is happening now is normal.

If the US economy is going to grow faster, the US budget deficit has to rise: Strategist

I think it's effed up.

A entire economies success/failure dependent upon carrying debt and increase debt.

Which means spend more money we don't have.

Capitalism is a boom/bust cycle.

Things might look good in the short term, but it's a long term game.

A rate increase doesn't factor in long term.

Which would be moronic.

a reply to: neo96

The way it seems to me is that the national debt and increasing the deficit is like administering a constant flow of medicine into a sick human being in order to keep their vitals up.

Is the debt ever going to be repaid, and what happens if we just keep jacking it up higher?

Remember the highly politicized government shutdown & debt ceiling crisis just a few short years back? They kicked the can down the road and "suspended" the debt ceiling, but that move is set to expire next week at the same time that the Fed is scheduled to announce an interest rate hike.
www.cnbc.com...

Get your popcorn folks! I'm sure the magicians on Capitol Hill & in the Fed have some new tricks ready for our viewing pleasure

a reply to: FamCore

So what should I be investing in before this happens?

a reply to: Antipathy17

I would check out this article about "Here's What the Market Did the Last Two Times the Fed Raised Interest Rates"

The last time the Fed raised short-term interest rates, stocks rallied. On Dec. 16, 2015, when the Fed boosted rates by 0.25 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.45 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1.28 percent. The enthusiasm was short-lived, however, and the S&P sank more than 11 percent by mid-February.

originally posted by: Metallicus
a reply to: FamCore

The interest rate hike is already factored in at this point. Consumer confidence is high, business outlook is high, people are employed and the market is riding the Trump effect.

This interest rate hike is a sign of a healthy economy. We had an interest rate of zero for most of Obama's 8 years because business and investors were so depressed.

What is happening now is normal.

You make me laugh. Once the next crash happens, fueled by corporate and private debt being bundled into nonsense and flogged around the world just like mortgages were last time, will you maintain your belief in a 'healthy economy' and booming nation state deficits as 'normal'?

a reply to: mersaultdies

What you're describing are known as "Collateralized Debt Obligations" (CDOs), and they have come back with a new name, Bespoke Tranche Opportunities

www.bustle.com...

a reply to: FamCore


The markets algorithms have already factored in a rate rise. If they don't happen the derivatives market will crash. If the Fed hand out a rate rise then they are going to crash the economy, the Trump effect will have gone negative, maybe that's the next trick.

How can a market run by algorithms, and a metals market that automatically does the same with a twelve o clock fix, to keep the precious metals shorted down have any semblance to a free market. Jobs in retail were the only ones that looked any good, and now they are stuffed because of online purchases. the Malls will look like a ghost town when Target pulls out.

Federal Reserve to Raise Interest Rates Next Week (Traders see 100% probability of this)

If traders do think this there will be a sell off.

A massive one, and the DOW will prolly bottom at close to the 17-18 mark.

a reply to: anonentity

How can a market run by algorithms, and a metals market that automatically does the same with a twelve o clock fix, to keep the precious metals shorted down have any semblance to a free market.

Exactly what I've been saying for years now. Even after Deutsch Bank and others have been caught manipulating the metals markets to keep them artificially low, nothing is done and it seems to just be accepted as "the way things work" nowadays.

originally posted by: Antipathy17
a reply to: FamCore

So what should I be investing in before this happens?

Guns, food, medical supplies....

a reply to: neo96


the rate increase this 14-15th of March will be followed by 3 & perhaps 4 more...at a full 1/4% each...
but the downturn will not surface until this October time frame...


right now my precious metals ROTH account is suffering greatly...and there seems to be another $50 to be pared from the Spot price of Gold (not so much silver)... by the time the Fed raises rates to .50-.75% gold spot will be near $1150. down $100 from the recent highs of $1255. (which was still under valued - but the mining infrastructure has suffered worse than the losses of the Gold Spot Price...and just might have great resistance to regaining their relative values in the near term)

~~~~~Woe is my timing in changing the Custodian of my ROTH Account at the 2nd of Jan '17~~~~~ its all been downhill



the whispers around the water cooler is that the Fed is orchestrating a stock market collapse, with Pres Trump being the fall-guy... and this market collapse will be sparked by the 'Trump Rally' based on the future outlook with slimming down the regulations/ restructuring the Tax rates/ remodeling the Affordable Health-Care monstrosity AKA ObamaCare. rebuilding the nations infrastructure in a concerted 10 yr plan


I am operating on faith right now with my gold-&-PM holdings down some -200% overall, since the inception in 2001----
brings to mind the Hee-Haw show & the segment where they sing: Gloom-Despair-Agony on me-Deep Dark Depression - Excessive Misery---If it weren't for BadLuck---I'd have no Luck At All

to post by 'lordcomac' above mine

edit on th31148902749008442017 by St Udio because: (no reason given)

a reply to: St Udio

the whispers around the water cooler is that the Fed is orchestrating a stock market collapse, with Pres Trump being the fall-guy

And the premise is that this will be severely worse than 2008 crisis I'm assuming?

originally posted by: Antipathy17
a reply to: FamCore

So what should I be investing in before this happens?

Start shorting companies with high exposure in mexico. Especially ones that transport good over the border. Like Rail that goes over the border

Long American Steel, Long large construction firms, Long Coal, Long fossil fuels

a reply to: St Udio

Down 200% on your gold and precious metals holdings since 2001? That sounds like the worst investment of all time! It would be like if you put $1000 in an account, and after leaving it for 16 years, you had a negative $1000 balance.

As for the rate hike: good. USD up, lower food, oil and other commodity prices. Bring it on!

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: neo96


the rate increase this 14-15th of March will be followed by 3 & perhaps 4 more...at a full 1/4% each...
but the downturn will not surface until this October time frame...


right now my precious metals ROTH account is suffering greatly...and there seems to be another $50 to be pared from the Spot price of Gold (not so much silver)... by the time the Fed raises rates to .50-.75% gold spot will be near $1150. down $100 from the recent highs of $1255. (which was still under valued - but the mining infrastructure has suffered worse than the losses of the Gold Spot Price...and just might have great resistance to regaining their relative values in the near term)

~~~~~Woe is my timing in changing the Custodian of my ROTH Account at the 2nd of Jan '17~~~~~ its all been downhill



the whispers around the water cooler is that the Fed is orchestrating a stock market collapse, with Pres Trump being the fall-guy... and this market collapse will be sparked by the 'Trump Rally' based on the future outlook with slimming down the regulations/ restructuring the Tax rates/ remodeling the Affordable Health-Care monstrosity AKA ObamaCare. rebuilding the nations infrastructure in a concerted 10 yr plan


I am operating on faith right now with my gold-&-PM holdings down some -200% overall, since the inception in 2001----
brings to mind the Hee-Haw show & the segment where they sing: Gloom-Despair-Agony on me-Deep Dark Depression - Excessive Misery---If it weren't for BadLuck---I'd have no Luck At All

to post by 'lordcomac' above mine

I think several things are at play, which may crossover and confuse the interest. It would seem the IMF has just about run its course on the fiat currency effort. Usually, in the past, the *&^ing the fan means the IMF gets the real assets of those it fleeced with the fiat debt notes: Greece.

The problem is if they attempt this now, they will get nothing as the world will turn against them entirely, as there is no guarantee that the CIA/NSA/IMF wins this current battle: wiki et.al.

So they are going to have to discourage people from borrowing if the ponzi scheme is to continue for those who think they have power, higher rates will do the trick and might kill the trump effect. But, on the flip side, the banks/outlets of IMF are going to get squeezed, they've been getting free money for a decade, to pay for it now should see push back, as there is little chance they want to go under to punish trump. Banks like cash, politics is a tool not a religion for them.

All that said: chaos. But, if you took possession of the silver, it will have value. Oddly enough the more dollar value, the less real value. 1500 and oz of gold means the dollar is crashing, as it takes more garbage debt notes to get a piece of something real. What folks miss is the same applies to real estate, yikes.

a reply to: crankyoldman

I wish I understood the tangled web of the Financial organizations that run (rob) the globe.

Do you think at a general birds-eye view that the Federal Reserve, the IMF, and the World Bank are competing or working together??

originally posted by: Antipathy17
a reply to: FamCore

So what should I be investing in before this happens?

I'm not an expert, but I have family I trust who I converse with about the markets and finances. My wife and I just moved from Texas and made a substantial profit on our house. We were able to become debt free with substantial cash in the bank, and are currently renting.

We plan to wait out the the current housing bubble in the area we're in - they are building new houses at an insane rate (middle TN area) and with rate hikes and the amount of inventory hitting, we plan to wait this out before we buy again. That being said, I've been doing alright with a diversified balance across some typical military related stocks, some high dividend earning REITs (with a game plan to get out once the bubble starts to pop), and some gold and silver ETFs that I'll swing into once the downturn happens...

Just my 2 cents

originally posted by: lordcomac

originally posted by: Antipathy17
a reply to: FamCore

So what should I be investing in before this happens?

Guns, food, medical supplies....

Sure for long term (I'd throw in some silver pieces, alcohol like high percentage liquor, and tobacco), but shorter term there are lots of opportunities...

Anyone hear of the CAN SLIM method?