The Trump Tidal Wave

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: UKTruth

Do you realize that mail-in is not as easy as just filling it out and sending it back? Democrats messed it up because it's actually a reasonably complex process and they're no realizing that their own voters have trouble following directions.

A percentage will not be accepted, but the Democrat lead is so huge that it won't matter.
I mean seriously, come on, a MILLION votes by registration advantage and you think that is going to be made up in one day of voting????
It's not going to be enjoyable tomorrow, fella. Mental images of Bernie Sanders in the Cabinet making decisions on people's lives - good grief.

a reply to: UKTruth

So a million total across the country? And?

There are 50 states. Those million will have to be spread 50 ways. Lump a bunch of them into too many states like California and New York and Illinois, and you've got a problem.

So far, the Democrats have been underperforming the numbers they need in the states they have to win. Not only that, but the COVID scare has been so effective in their electorate that they are likely cannibalizing their turnout for tomorrow meaning that many of those votes are the ones they're getting with not much extra coming in tomorrow.

Believe me, they know the numbers they need, and they aren't seeing totals that make them happy.

pjmedia.com...

Joe Biden spent the past few days campaigning in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—all states polls show him leading, some of them comfortably.

The highly respected and prophetic Iowa Des Moines Register poll, released on Sunday, suggests Trump may win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Democrats are very worried they’ve already lost Florida.

Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman warned that Trump can win Pennsylvania, based on the large crowds he’s getting in the state.

Blue cities nationwide are preparing for unrest on election night.

The Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted the Brexit vote, says President Trump is “set to win [the] US presidency by electoral college landslide.”

Democrat Congressman James Clyburn is panicking about black voters supporting Trump and already crying about voter suppression.

Several battleground state polls released in the past few days look very good for Trump.

Even CBS News concedes that an Election Day surge by Republicans could lead Trump to victory.

In short, Democrats are panicking right now and are planning to delegitimize the Election Day results.

“Democrats are panicking because Joe Biden has not run up a large enough lead in early votes in battleground states and they know that President Trump’s in-person votes on Election Day will make up the difference and propel him to victory,” said Trump 2020 deputy campaign manager Justin Clark in a statement. “Biden’s political operatives have already been distributing talking points and research to delegitimize Election Day results by coaching surrogates to refer to the President’s Election Day success as a ‘Red Mirage.’ The operatives are advising surrogates and media to create a smokescreen by casting blame all around – imagining postal delays or falsely claiming that mail-in ballots that have simply not been returned should be considered legitimate votes that need to be counted. None of this will be true, but it will be held up as proof that President Trump’s victory is a so-called ‘Red Mirage.’ No one should fall for it.”

“We are aware that Democrats have already cut television ads they are prepared to deploy to further cement the ‘Red Mirage’ misinformation, seeking to convince people that all Joe Biden would need for victory is more time, extending well beyond Election Day,” Clark continued. “At the same time, we fully anticipate that Democrats will be in court arguing to extend deadlines for accepting and counting votes mailed and received well past deadlines enacted by individual state laws. Americans should remember that Biden has assembled a massive team of lawyers who will try to loosen election integrity so they can steal this election, and also recall that Hillary Clinton advised Biden not to concede defeat ‘under any circumstances.’ The last gasp of the Biden campaign will be ugly and it will be ruthless.”

Why bother to make TV ads to delegitimize an election you are winning and winning comfortably? Sure, they intend to try to steal, but the signs are all pointing to an election that will make it hard for them to do that easily.

Could Biden win? Yes, Trump beat Hillary, so it happens.

Here are internals showing why the current advantage may not matter. If the Trump turnout is what it should be ... then they don't have enough margin of advantage to win.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: UKTruth

So a million total across the country? And?

There are 50 states. Those million will have to be spread 50 ways. Lump a bunch of them into too many states like California and New York and Illinois, and you've got a problem.

So far, the Democrats have been underperforming the numbers they need in the states they have to win. Not only that, but the COVID scare has been so effective in their electorate that they are likely cannibalizing their turnout for tomorrow meaning that many of those votes are the ones they're getting with not much extra coming in tomorrow.

Believe me, they know the numbers they need, and they aren't seeing totals that make them happy.

pjmedia.com...

Joe Biden spent the past few days campaigning in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—all states polls show him leading, some of them comfortably.

The highly respected and prophetic Iowa Des Moines Register poll, released on Sunday, suggests Trump may win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Democrats are very worried they’ve already lost Florida.

Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman warned that Trump can win Pennsylvania, based on the large crowds he’s getting in the state.

Blue cities nationwide are preparing for unrest on election night.

The Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted the Brexit vote, says President Trump is “set to win [the] US presidency by electoral college landslide.”

Democrat Congressman James Clyburn is panicking about black voters supporting Trump and already crying about voter suppression.

Several battleground state polls released in the past few days look very good for Trump.

Even CBS News concedes that an Election Day surge by Republicans could lead Trump to victory.

In short, Democrats are panicking right now and are planning to delegitimize the Election Day results.

“Democrats are panicking because Joe Biden has not run up a large enough lead in early votes in battleground states and they know that President Trump’s in-person votes on Election Day will make up the difference and propel him to victory,” said Trump 2020 deputy campaign manager Justin Clark in a statement. “Biden’s political operatives have already been distributing talking points and research to delegitimize Election Day results by coaching surrogates to refer to the President’s Election Day success as a ‘Red Mirage.’ The operatives are advising surrogates and media to create a smokescreen by casting blame all around – imagining postal delays or falsely claiming that mail-in ballots that have simply not been returned should be considered legitimate votes that need to be counted. None of this will be true, but it will be held up as proof that President Trump’s victory is a so-called ‘Red Mirage.’ No one should fall for it.”

“We are aware that Democrats have already cut television ads they are prepared to deploy to further cement the ‘Red Mirage’ misinformation, seeking to convince people that all Joe Biden would need for victory is more time, extending well beyond Election Day,” Clark continued. “At the same time, we fully anticipate that Democrats will be in court arguing to extend deadlines for accepting and counting votes mailed and received well past deadlines enacted by individual state laws. Americans should remember that Biden has assembled a massive team of lawyers who will try to loosen election integrity so they can steal this election, and also recall that Hillary Clinton advised Biden not to concede defeat ‘under any circumstances.’ The last gasp of the Biden campaign will be ugly and it will be ruthless.”

Why bother to make TV ads to delegitimize an election you are winning and winning comfortably? Sure, they intend to try to steal, but the signs are all pointing to an election that will make it hard for them to do that easily.

Could Biden win? Yes, Trump beat Hillary, so it happens.

Here are internals showing why the current advantage may not matter. If the Trump turnout is what it should be ... then they don't have enough margin of advantage to win.

No, It's 1 MILLION just in PA.

a reply to: UKTruth

And if you look at some of the projections, Trump doesn't need PA to win. He's doing well enough in other places PA can fall to Biden and Trump can still win easily.

And again, the early votes are by registration which says nothing about how they actually voted.

a reply to: ketsuko

The Department of Justice is deploying a huge force of observers tomorrow and the next few days, to ensure cheating in key States like Pennsylvania does not occur.

a reply to: UKTruth
Well if Biden wins the good thing for you is that you will not have to live here in this incoming socialist mess, where taxes go up and liberties go away. Where a woman who has never done anything good will become de facto leader because she tells everyone she is black.

For me the only good thing might be that I will longer have to post in this thread.

So I leave you all with this classic:

I'm just gonna point out that all this talk about which party has had more ballots returned already completely ignores that people don't always vote the way they are registered.

It also completely ignores the fact that Independents are well over 1/3rd of the electorate.

Biden could very well take PA though. I live in PA, and I've lived in different parts of it, and I'm not sure there's a more corrupt state in the union. The corruption runs deep at every level, especially in Philly. I'm sure they tried to cheat in 2016, they just underestimated how much support Trump had and they didn't cheat enough. They'll leave nothing to chance this time.

Hard numbers from PA ...

Or why 1 MILLION VOTES does not matter.

"The Democrats are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a three-quarter million head start heading into tomorrow, probably more than that. What we know right now that there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, and there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, in particular, is going to look on election night on an Election Day vote standpoint like the president wins in an absolute landslide. However, we know the margins he needs to win by in Pennsylvania, and that math is available to us from a turnout perspective,” Trump campaign director of battleground strategy Nick Trainer said.

You're right. Biden is up by almost a million votes, but the projected Trump turnout for tomorrow is enough to easily swamp that plus any more Biden votes.

So it comes down to how accurate the projected turnout models are. Time will tell, but the Trump campaign feels good and the energy at the rallies has been sky high.

Another unintended consequence of COVID ... Lots of colleges don't have kids on campus. That depresses the 18-24 yr old demographic which usually heavily favors democrats. They aren't on campus where they can easily be rounded up and bused to the polls. In Wisconsin, it's only 3% in the early returns so far. The Dems were banking on 30%.

originally posted by: face23785
I'm just gonna point out that all this talk about which party has had more ballots returned already completely ignores that people don't always vote the way they are registered.

DING DING DING DING DING

Trump has been having 25-30% democrats show up to his rallies, could that mean, in a conservative non-scientific guesstimate, that maybe 15-20% of those would vote for him? It was also shown that his support for African Americans has jumped from 8% in 2016 to well over 15%. You may very well have 1 million democrat ballots returned, with 250k of those going for DJT. We won't know until it is counted though.

originally posted by: UKTruth
To sober what I believe is a fake burst of social media campaigning by Republicans ...

In Pennsylvania, DEMOCRATS lead by over 1 MILLION votes based on party registration going into election day.
In short, PA is gone for Trump - that's a blue wave, not a red one.

I think Republicans should brace themselves for a massive Biden win - maybe even 400 Electoral College votes.

1. Republicans closed registration gap by 200K over 2016 (Trump won by 44K over Clinton)

2. Hydraulic fracturing: Even if 1M more Democrat mail-in ballots have been received versus Republican mail-in ballots, PA employs 1M in the shale gas industry. Livelihoods are at stake, regardless of party affiliation. Local municipalities, school districts, and conservation districts benefit from shale gas impact fees. Such funding sources (wages, impact fees) will be preserved at the polls, regardless of party affiliation. With shale gas estimated to underlie two-thirds of the Commonwealth, most counties -- excluding Philadelphia and other southeastern counties -- benefit from hydraulic fracturing.

3. Wolf - certain aspects of the shuts downs ruled unconstitutional. Trump didn't issue mandates, Wolf did. Trump didn't decimate small businesses, Wolf's mandates did. Never before have I seen signs to impeach a governor in this state, until Wolf.

4. Levine - 67% of COVID deaths attributed to LTC facilities (down from 69.7% in the spring), the same facilities licensed and regulated by Levine, who also now recommends Pennsylvanians hold virtual Thanksgiving, but no restriction on piling 20 family members around a table in a restaurant... as long as each occupied chair is six feet from each occupied chair of another party's table. Madness.

In just one county during the primary (Luzerne County, next to the county of Joe's beloved Scranton), four times more Democrats did a write-in for Trump, than Republicans writing in for Biden. Democrats had three choices, Republicans three choices. Biden received less than 80% of party votes. Trump, 93%. That's very telling, if when provided with three choices, Democrats still did a write in for Trump by a 4:1 margin over Republicans writing in for Biden.

Even if 1M more Democrat voters have returned a mail in ballot v. Republican voter returned ballots, I suspect more D voters voted Trump, than R voters having voted Biden, maybe by a 4:1 margin, like Luzerne County did in the primary.

Oh, PA was a caboose for the primary held June 2, well before the summer of love left an indelible mark on everyone's sense of justice. Law enforcement is respected, regardless of party affiliation. Yet another reason more D votes will be cast for Trump, than R votes for Biden.

Republican strongholds are not urban. Wait time at the polls is much, much, much shorter. After the shut downs, no reason to do a mail-in ballot when a quick trip to the poll offers an opportunity to GET OUT and experience normalcy. Stand in line, breath fresh, brisk air, cast a ballot, feel normal. I'm looking forward to it, and will surrender my unopened ballot tomorrow when voting at the poll.

Prognosis: Trump takes PA by 123K. Unfortunately, we won't know for sure until 6 November.

originally posted by: ketsuko
Hard numbers from PA ...

Or why 1 MILLION VOTES does not matter.

"The Democrats are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a three-quarter million head start heading into tomorrow, probably more than that. What we know right now that there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, and there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, in particular, is going to look on election night on an Election Day vote standpoint like the president wins in an absolute landslide. However, we know the margins he needs to win by in Pennsylvania, and that math is available to us from a turnout perspective,” Trump campaign director of battleground strategy Nick Trainer said.

You're right. Biden is up by almost a million votes, but the projected Trump turnout for tomorrow is enough to easily swamp that plus any more Biden votes.

So it comes down to how accurate the projected turnout models are. Time will tell, but the Trump campaign feels good and the energy at the rallies has been sky high.

So it comes down to whether Republicans can be bothered...and that is where the problem is.
In 2016 they couldn't be bothered (despite the Trump win)...there was some additional turnout but Trump only got 2m more votes than Romney nationwide. he only barely beat Clinton. In 2018 Republicans literally sat on their asses as their country burned (radicals taking the House).
Too many Republicans seem to think if they don't get the perfect policies then it's not worth voting.
It's the same this year IMO. Seen them all over social media complaining about things like the wall.

Well I thought I was done in this thread but wait...

Biden can raise the dead!


So at 4am a group of Hertz rental cars dropped off 400,000 ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin? All for Biden and just enough to get Biden past Trump in those states? Each ballot can be traced to its count time and can be gone through one at a time. They all voted for Biden. Do not be surprised if the majority of those voters are not even alive.

This will be my last political post.

Think about this:

In the middle of the night a group of Hertz rental cars suddenly appeared and dropped off Two hundred thousand ballots for Biden in Michigan. Same thing happened in Wisconsin. Not one of the ballots in either state was for Trump, only for Biden. This is a statistical impossibility. This is voter fraud. This is cheating.

Between 3:30-4:30AM, they “ found” over 138,000 mail in ballots for Biden in Wisconsin.
Between 3:30-5:00AM, they “ found” over 200,000 mail in ballots for Biden in Michigan.
Between 2:00-4:00AM, they “ found” over 1,000,000 mail in ballots in Pennsylvania.
All for Biden. None for Trump.

Michigan authorities are trying to cover their butts on this one, claiming that it is false. But what else are they going to say, they do not want to be caught in voter fraud. And what is the Democratic media who is all in on Biden going to say. Imagine you go to sleep ahead by a hundred thousand votes and wake up to find you are suddenly behind and not receiving any votes, you damn well know there is cheating going on. If any of this is true, this will probably go to the Supreme Court and the only way Biden will win is if the Dems pay off one of the Supreme Court Justices with dirty Dem money.

All these late-night ballots are timed and can all be checked by name/date of birth/drivers license, etc. They can input the info to find out if the vote went through accurately. In this way they can also track to see if the voter is still alive. This is where Biden’s side is being caught cheating, long dead Democrats are still voting.

The reason I think this will be the end of my political posting, I because all this Democrat Party cheating has ruined the election and I doubt I will ever vote again. Doubt I will live long enough to see another President.

All you Biden voters, remember to smile as you watch your paychecks shrink and your taxes go up.

And all hail the United Socialist States of Communist China!

Link to article about postal mail fraud!

link

Project Veritas on Friday released a new video of a United States Postal Service whistleblower in Coraopolis, Pennsylvania that claimed supervisors and other higher-ups are ordering carriers to backdate ballots that were received after Election Day.

According to the whistleblower, a supervisor instructed carriers to collect any ballots found on their routes. They were then to be placed in the plastic carriers, dumped in another plastic tub down the road and sent for counting.

"Ballots in Pennsylvania have to be postmarked by eight o'clock on Election Day November the 3rd or they will not be counted, according to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court," James O'Keefe said.

"Yes, sir," the whistleblower replied.

"So ballots collected on or after that date should not be counted and you're saying that your postmaster, or their supervisor, William Wood and James Malia, in a standup meeting, they said to separate those ballots and collect them?" O'Keefe asked.

"The postmaster and the supervisor did not say they were going to, were going to backdate them," the carrier explained. I was firmly of the belief that they were going to be backdated. I was definitely concerned."

According to the whistleblower, USPS employees are continually reminded of the Hatch Act, which prevents government employees from being involved in political activity.

a reply to: MConnalley

I guess late votes are okay if they are pro-Democrat.