Trump closing the gap, now ahead in Florida

a reply to: Indigo5

Which is unchanged from prior to Comeys error.

That news is not having the affect that the GOP was hoping for.

a reply to: Zerodoublehero

REALLY?
Because taxes go to pay for public education and everyone including those without children must pay for it. Your taxes pave the roads even if you don't own a car.

I'm not getting your claim.

Oh and Donald is as entitled to his social security as any other citizen.
So everybody get a grip.

You know I'm not his supporter but God don't be stupid folks.

It's silly given his claimed wealth but it's due him if he wants it.

My hubby applied for his and we don't need it either but it's ours so...

originally posted by: MotherMayEye

originally posted by: Indigo5
Early voting is underway in many states, and things seem to look good for Democrats.

CNN suggests that Democrats have improved their standing in Arizona and Nevada, compared with 2012. Democrats also are voting at high rates in the key battlegrounds of Florida and North Carolina, according to news reports"

What a completely bizarre thing to report.

Why would the Washington Post look at "news reports" when Florida posts the actual statistics of the votes cast, so far?

In Florida...so far, republicans have cast more votes:

Link

It's interesting how that was spun into 'early voting looks good for Hillary.'

Your link shows party affiliation, Dem, GOP, Independent...it does not show who voted for whom.

And it does, in fact show Dems voting early in "high rates" in FL? So not sure what your beef is?

Noted though that FL will likely go to Trump..by a hair..

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Indigo5

Which is unchanged from prior to Comeys error.

That news is not having the affect that the GOP was hoping for.

Comeys error? Even Obama admitted he did nothing wrong and that he is a man of integrity.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: MotherMayEye

Which isn't very likely so....

She's ahead in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, plus all the traditionally blue states.
Trump needs to wrestle those swing states away from her plus some blue one.

Still could be looking at something like this:

a reply to: LifeMode

Where are you getting that.
Early voting is weighted heavy to the democrats and her numbers while lower than they were in some polls are still ahead of his.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Indigo5

Which is unchanged from prior to Comeys error.

That news is not having the affect that the GOP was hoping for.

Trump has gone up by over 15 pts since Friday according to Five Thirty Eight, a medium of like 30+ polls . What are you talking about no affect? Just flipped Fla today. I'm not saying he will win just that it had a big time effect on the situation. If you want to ignore 30+ polls that is your choice.

a reply to: MotherMayEye

Yeah it could.... but it won't.

It's not happening.

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: MotherMayEye

originally posted by: Indigo5
Early voting is underway in many states, and things seem to look good for Democrats.

CNN suggests that Democrats have improved their standing in Arizona and Nevada, compared with 2012. Democrats also are voting at high rates in the key battlegrounds of Florida and North Carolina, according to news reports"

What a completely bizarre thing to report.

Why would the Washington Post look at "news reports" when Florida posts the actual statistics of the votes cast, so far?

In Florida...so far, republicans have cast more votes:

Link

It's interesting how that was spun into 'early voting looks good for Hillary.'

Your link shows party affiliation, Dem, GOP, Independent...it does not show who voted for whom.

Noted though that FL will likely go to Trump..by a hair..

I don't think you read what I quoted or what I wrote.

No one knows who anyone voted for. I thought you understood that the Washington Post article you posted was talking about voters' party affiliation, too.

And I expressed amazement at how it was spun into "things are looking good for Hillary," with regard to Florida. Seems they are looking good for Trump.

But, again, it remains to be seen.

a reply to: Sillyolme

Oh, ok. Glad you could rule that scenario out for everyone.

originally posted by: Indigo5
but then he has to go on to win GA - NC - OH - IA - AZ - CO - NV

North Carolina and NV are his worries after Florida. GA, OH, IA will likely go his way. NV? Maybe. CO? Very Unlikely, but possible...then NC.

As far as the other states go. I don't see Hillary taking Nevada with how much of a strong opposition to Federal overreach the population has. Just look at the armed protest against the Bundy incident in 2014, those are not the types of people who look forward to a Hillary candidacy.

Arizona - is a key battle for Cartel trafficking and crime due to wide open borer policies, again, the demands of the citizens in AZ are not in line with what Hillary is pushing. Hell, many there are clamoring for a wall, they live on the front lines of a mongrel and criminal invasion from the South.

Georgia - Really???? You really think there is a question to who this is going to grab Georgia?? Have you actually interacted with the humans in Georgia??? Outside of Atlanta, its alot of us "gun toting bible thumping deplorables" .

Colorado - , hmm many of the citizens and even Sheriffs there are not happy with the governors second amendment infringements he signed into law. That will translate into a revolt at the polls. Although I am worried the marijuana may have pacified them a bit more than needed.
I don't know enough abut Ohio and Iowa though to make a reasonable assessment. North Carolina, well thats a pretty diverse place as well, so no telling how that one will go.
a reply to: Sillyolme



Social security tax does not pay for roads or schools. Schools are funded locally. Roads come heavily from gas taxes. The statement was in direct reply to social security.

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: jrod

Nate Silver has updated his forecast.

It includes Trump taking Florida and Clinton winning 304 to 232

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

Same Nate Silver that said Trump had no chance of winning a primary, much less the whole nomination? Yeah, that's what I thought.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Indigo5

Which is unchanged from prior to Comeys error.

That news is not having the affect that the GOP was hoping for.

Well, there are polls that dispute you.

Also, anecdotal BUT my sister and her husband told me, last night, that they are going to hold their noses and vote for Trump. They were not planning on voting until Friday's news broke.

(I'm still probably not voting, at all.)

originally posted by: netwarrior

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: jrod

Nate Silver has updated his forecast.

It includes Trump taking Florida and Clinton winning 304 to 232

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

Same Nate Silver that said Trump had no chance of winning a primary, much less the whole nomination? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Same Nate Silver who the Trump Campaign Manager said was the most reliable and nearly identical to their internal polling...Yes, that Nate Silver.

a reply to: MotherMayEye

I understood. But the vote totals you linked to showed a virtual tie in GOP and Dem early voting...and Florida has more GOP than Dem.

Put another way, I think the WAPO article wasn't stating that FL had more Dems early voting, but rather early turn-out showed more Dems voting than usual..but not looking to tussle on the matter, I still think FL will go trump.

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: MotherMayEye

I understood. But the vote totals you linked to showed a virtual tie in GOP and Dem early voting...and Florida has more GOP than Dem.

Put another way, I think the WAPO article wasn't stating that FL had more Dems early voting, but rather early turn-out showed more Dems voting than usual..but not looking to tussle on the matter, I still think FL will go trump.

That's wrong.

Voter registration (Republican) -- 4,500,960

Voter registration (Democrat) -- 4,800,905

Link


ETA: We aren't tussling...just discussing. I don't see how the WaPo spun Florida's numbers into being good for Hillary.

originally posted by: LifeMode
Trump has gone up by over 15 pts since Friday according to Five Thirty Eight, a medium of like 30+ polls . What are you talking about no affect? Just flipped Fla today. I'm not saying he will win just that it had a big time effect on the situation. If you want to ignore 30+ polls that is your choice.

He's not wrong. The polls actually started the big shift BEFORE the FBI thing this weekend. That's an even bigger problem for Hillary, because it suggests that the race was already beginning to make a late break away from her before this latest round of bad news. Since the story broke heading into a weekend, I don't think we'll see the impact, if any, show up in the polls until tomorrow or perhaps Thursday as this thing gets run through the mill by the pundits in the weekday news cycle.

originally posted by: worldstarcountry

originally posted by: Indigo5
but then he has to go on to win GA - NC - OH - IA - AZ - CO - NV

North Carolina and NV are his worries after Florida. GA, OH, IA will likely go his way. NV? Maybe. CO? Very Unlikely, but possible...then NC.

As far as the other states go. I don't see Hillary taking Nevada with how much of a strong opposition to Federal overreach the population has. Just look at the armed protest against the Bundy incident in 2014, those are not the types of people who look forward to a Hillary candidacy.

Clinton has won the majority of polls there. They are not friendly to Trump. Vegas is not the Bundy crowd.

RCP for Nevada

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Trump might pull it out, but the edge is still Clinton.

Arizona - is a key battle for Cartel trafficking and crime due to wide open borer policies, again, the demands of the citizens in AZ are not in line with what Hillary is pushing. Hell, many there are clamoring for a wall, they live on the front lines of a mongrel and criminal invasion from the South.

Large populations of retirees from all over the country and a growing Hispanic population.

Georgia - Really???? You really think there is a question to who this is going to grab Georgia?? Have you actually interacted with the humans in Georgia??? Outside of Atlanta, its alot of us "gun toting bible thumping deplorables" .

It's purple, but will go Trump

Colorado - , hmm many of the citizens and even Sheriffs there are not happy with the governors second amendment infringements he signed into law. That will translate into a revolt at the polls. Although I am worried the marijuana may have pacified them a bit more than needed.

Solid Clinton...not really in question this election.

I don't know enough abut Ohio and Iowa though to make a reasonable assessment.

Both will go Trump

North Carolina, well thats a pretty diverse place as well, so no telling how that one will go.

It's tipsy, but Clinton is playing hard for the state right now.

originally posted by: MotherMayEye

ETA: We aren't tussling...just discussing. I don't see how the WaPo spun Florida's numbers into being good for Hillary.

Honestly you got me..

Looking closer it seems like everyone is spinning the early votes in FL..WAPO does lean Dem or anti-Trump, so it might have been spin, so I checked other articles..

Early Turnout Tilts Toward Democrats in Swing States
www.nytimes.com...

Early vote numbers in Florida should spook Hillary Clinton
www.tampabay.com...

Florida Early Voting Numbers for Today
Looking at the votes cast so far in Florida on this Halloween day, it's clear Democrats should be spooked. Well, so should Republicans for that matter, since the voting so far points to a razor-thin, too close to call race.
www.dailykos.com...

After looking closer, I tilt your way...WAPO spin..Clinton looks poised to lose FL.
Note that the Trump Campaign worked hard to make it happen and suppress Dem voter turn-out.

Trump’s team also knows where its fate will be decided. It’s built a model, the
“Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,”
to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House.
On Oct. 18 they rank as follows: Florida (“If we don’t win, we’re cooked,” says an official), Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

And her 1996 suggestion that some African American males are “super predators” is the basis of a below-the-radar effort to discourage infrequent black voters from showing up at the polls—particularly in Florida.

...

On Oct. 24, Trump’s team began placing spots on select African American radio stations.

www.bloomberg.com...

originally posted by: MotherMayEye

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: MotherMayEye

I understood. But the vote totals you linked to showed a virtual tie in GOP and Dem early voting...and Florida has more GOP than Dem.

Put another way, I think the WAPO article wasn't stating that FL had more Dems early voting, but rather early turn-out showed more Dems voting than usual..but not looking to tussle on the matter, I still think FL will go trump.

That's wrong.

Voter registration (Republican) -- 4,500,960

Voter registration (Democrat) -- 4,800,905

Link


ETA: We aren't tussling...just discussing. I don't see how the WaPo spun Florida's numbers into being good for Hillary.

3,012,910 No party affiliation.