Betting website pays out $1 million because it's certain Clinton beats Trump

A major betting website is so certain Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump that it has made a huge gamble -- already paying out $1.1 million to those who bet on Clinton.

The United States' election day is still three weeks away. But Irish betting site PaddyPower says Trump's campaign is dead already.
SOURCE

It's hard for me to understand the logic in this. Perhaps they determined they'll get more in free advertising from this move than what they paid out?

I wonder if inside information came into play here. If you knew you would get paid early no matter what, it's not gambling then. That's a nice deal.

a reply to: Profusion

Hubris on their part, unless they know 100% the fix is in. This makes me scratch my head.

They dont know jack!

It is Ireland, Their decision-makers must be on the sauce!

Either way, terrible business decision. NOTHING is certain (especially in the gambling industry) until the "game" is over.

@rockintitz - Hubris indeed. Im not scratching my head, Im shaking it.

a reply to: Profusion

perhaps the "winners" are being told that if by chance trump wins they'll have to pay it back. thus ensuring they vote clinton...

I've got a bet on Trump with a very well known bookmaker because I like long odds. I don't mind admitting that collecting on this particular bet will have an unusually sweet taste, as will watching Ol Mama Murderous throwing a massive feminist Grandma tantrum.

originally posted by: six67seven
They dont know jack!

It is Ireland, Their decision-makers must be on the sauce!

Either way, terrible business decision. NOTHING is certain (especially in the gambling industry) until the "game" is over.

@rockintitz - Hubris indeed. Im not scratching my head, Im shaking it.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say they have some sort of insurance on this gamble.

I used to use Bovada. Never have they paid out early even if a game was a blowout. My guess is they didn't use their own money. No bookie pays early.

originally posted by: Profusion

A major betting website is so certain Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump that it has made a huge gamble -- already paying out $1.1 million to those who bet on Clinton.

The United States' election day is still three weeks away. But Irish betting site PaddyPower says Trump's campaign is dead already.
SOURCE

It's hard for me to understand the logic in this. Perhaps they determined they'll get more in free advertising from this move than what they paid out?

I wonder if inside information came into play here. If you knew you would get paid early no matter what, it's not gambling then. That's a nice deal.

This seems HIGHLY suspect to me. I can see no other reasons for doing that than to reinforce the narrative, that a Hillary victory is certain.

Yeah, this is all about narrative control to me.

As this is a conspiracy site I will go on to speculate that this could be a step taken in order to cover up voter fraud. The best fraud is the one no one suspects has happended.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
I used to use Bovada. Never have they paid out early even if a game was a blowout. My guess is they didn't use their own money. No bookie pays early.

Agreed. They have insurance on this bet and they probably paid out early to stop the odds in their tracks.

a reply to: CulturalResilience

sup with those donuts?

Having a hard time believing this.

a reply to: introvert

They can just raise the odds. I mean listen, she is in the lead every line has her up. But you don't pay out early ever. A game could get canceled right at the end. Something could happen to her. Paying out early would have no benefit other than publicity.


Also you don't have to pay out to stop the odds. You can just not offer them anymore. They won't take certain bets in sports because everyone knows the outcome.

So an ad many times may cost 1.1 million.

Let's say someone knows the owners or administrators and offers to lose 1.5 on purpose so they could make early pay outs (keep books right) . The free media you may get may actually be worth more.

No bookie ever pays out early, ever.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
I used to use Bovada. Never have they paid out early even if a game was a blowout. My guess is they didn't use their own money. No bookie pays early.

It sounds like someone paid them to pay out in support of the narrative "Hillary wins so no need to go vote for Turmp". Rather clever way to promote voter suppression.

No bookie pays early ... with their own money.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
So an ad many times may cost 1.1 million.

Let's say someone knows the owners or administrators and offers to lose 1.5 on purpose so they could make early pay outs (keep books right) . The free media you may get may actually be worth more.

No bookie ever pays out early, ever.

Paddypower have paid out early a few times in the past. Can't remember if they have ever got it wrong.

ETA: googled and apparently they got it wrong in the greek referendum.

a reply to: ScepticScot

Odd that would so it again then. Wounder if they've ever paid early with sports.

Calling a political bet early is shady IMO, seems there is other interests involved.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
So an ad many times may cost 1.1 million.

Let's say someone knows the owners or administrators and offers to lose 1.5 on purpose so they could make early pay outs (keep books right) . The free media you may get may actually be worth more.

No bookie ever pays out early, ever.

Paddypower have paid out early a few times in the past. Can't remember if they have ever got it wrong.

ETA: googled and apparently they got it wrong in the greek referendum.

Thanks for the reminder about the Greek referendum. I had forgotten them paying out early on that one. I recall thinking that that one was extremely suspicious and raised the spectre that someone may be manipulating Paddypower for some purpose that at the time I could not discern.

a reply to: Profusion

Well I wish I'd placed that bet....

a reply to: Kapriti

As I said above. That money could possibly get you more TV time than ads dollar for dollar.

Edit: Plus making people think it's already decided.

a reply to: Ohanka

Haha you have to cash the check with your soul.