What are the chances of other intelligent life existing in our galaxy / universe?

a reply to: darkbake

Why do you presume WE are intelligent? That would be for others beyond our ball of dirt to decide.

Personally, I believe we are just bacteria-like and our purpose is hidden to our comprehension. Perhaps the fact that everything we do destroys something even when we create and kinda proves we are nothing more than a big cosmic reaction to a galactic fart.

Just part of an ever changing thing. Starstuff.

a reply to: Drazzl

You're right, though we don't know what that limitation is. I figure it's probably limited at some point, but we don't know at what point of mass or distance that is. The only portion we can hope to measure is the visible universe. It's likely the "whole" universe is much larger than the visible universe, seeing as it doesn't "thin out" in any direction as we approach the limits of the visible universe.

Perhaps we can see 50%, perhaps only .0000000000001%, or 800 septillion times less than that.

My thinking is there's either lots and lots of intelligent species in our galaxy alone, or its full VR simulation and intelligent life is only on Earth, until they see fit to introduce others to us. If it is a simulation, every bit of mythology just might be true. From 900 year old biblical humans, to dragons, giants and lightning slinging gods, even if it is just the result of a cheat code

I've read that there are several dimensions to this universe. They overlay each other and each contains life-forms. My non-scientific mind can't visualize this. But that's what I've read. Here on ATS I believe.

a reply to: darkbake

Prove to me there's ANY intelligent life in the universe?

Is stupidity wieghed against intelligence, or is it a part of intelligence?

Wait... have you found proof of intelligent life living here? I think we should begin with that.

Most of science believes it is a virtual certainty that life (and intelligent life) exists elsewhere, maybe even in our own galaxy. It's as close to certain as it can get without being 100% certain (because nothing is 100% certain.

originally posted by: ColaTesla
I cant remember the exact equation, But its been worked out and its a mathematical certainty.

If you mean the "Drake Equation" (developed in 1961), it does not give a % certainty of life elsewhere; it is only used to estimate the potential number of intelligent civilizations (specifically those whose communications we could receive), based on certain variables. That equation is:

The Drake equation is:
N = R* ⋅ fp⋅ ne⋅ fℓ ⋅ fi⋅ fc ⋅ L,
with "N" being the number of civilizations in our galaxy that may have communication that we can receive.

Even though "N" represents civilizations whose communications we might be able to hear -- and NOT just "Number of intelligent Civilizations" -- variations of the Drake Equation could be used to estimate the number of planets with intelligent life.

However, the Drake Equation relies on many assumptions (albeit educated assumptions) when filling in its variables; not all of the variables have values that have been determined by science. The first three variables have been determined with some accuracy...

R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

...although the value for "fp" is a number that science is still fine-tuning, and the value for "ne" has only recently been studied, and that value may change.


The values of the final four variables are as follows:

fℓ = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent civilizations
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

The values for these Drake Equation variables are not known. Any value assigned to these variables is pretty much a guess. It may not be quite a "wild guess", because some research and hypotheses have been put into trying to determine the values, but not enough to have any certainty whatsoever in those values...

...I mean, how have they determined fi, for example? How have they determined a value for "the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life"?

So The Drake Equation is a useful tool, but it has not told us about the certainty or uncertainty of intelligent life elsewhere.

a reply to: darkbake

With really large numbers, like infinity, you get to see things in a new light. If the universe was that large, there would be an identical Earth out there right now with identical people and identical geography in every way.

Infinity is not a number

Some infinities are larger than others

a reply to: darkbake
"What are the chances of other intelligent life existing in our galaxy / universe?"

100%

originally posted by: spiritualarchitect
a reply to: darkbake
"What are the chances of other intelligent life existing in our galaxy / universe?"

100%

I'd say it's 99.9999999999999999....%

My logic behind that number is this:
In this current universe there needed to be a "First" life. If so, then perhaps Earth life could be the first intelligent life in all of the universe, and there are currently no other civilizations on any planet in the universe. Maybe there will be many many in the future, but maybe right now we are the first and only.

Now, I personally don't think that is true. I don't think it is anywhere NEAR likely that Earth life is the first life. The probability of us being first is practically zero ----- BUT it isn't quite zero.

That's why science doesn't usually deal in 100% certainties. You'll see scientific papers saying "almost surely" or "almost certainly", which is basically saying that something is as close to certain as possible WITHOUT be absolutely certain. So while I think that other intelligent life in the universe almost surely exists, until that intelligent life is somehow confirmed to exist, there is still a non-zero chance (not matter how close to zero that chance is) that there are none.

That 99.9999999999999999....% will only become 100% when other intelligent life is confirmed.

a reply to: darkbake

I am afraid it has been left to me to tell you the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth on this subject.

The odds of finding intelligent life with in this galaxy are some where about slim to none. Of course, I am taking our planet into account when I say that.

Else where, I would speculate a fairly accurate conjecture would be about 50/50. It either is or it is not.

Of course, again I only have the intellectual levels of those whom I encounter on this planet upon which I can base my conclusion. Oh, and I do include yours truly with in this assessment.

Okay, 'life' arrived on earth via comets, how did 'life' get to the comets?

This post/thread though probably well-meaning is an example of a person thinking they have all this information and statistics and intelligence, but in truth they are being extremely vague, and there's no purpose or point being stated.

Let's say for the sake of argument that 13 billion light years away there is an exact duplicate of Earth. So what?

Is your question that you are really "wondering this"?

Be more specific. Are there sentient life forms in our own galaxy, can we ever meet them, will they ever 'come here' in our lifetime, will it be beneficial.

It makes no sense to ask the question you have.

The only relevant question is 'can we meet a sentient life-form, within our life time that will be mutually beneficial'.

I would say no, we will not meet a similarly motivated (or friendly, if you will) life form, like on Star Trek that can or will come here and exchange technology or beneficial culture.

Is there an exact duplicate of Earth billions of light years from here in some direction in a near-infinite Universe? Who knows? What does it matter?

The theory that the Universe is infinite is based on the 'space' it's placed in, not 'matter'.

The odds are actually very unrelated as to the conditioning, and not 99.9999999% based on the 'Infinite' Universe.

When speaking about the Expansion of the Universe, think of it as a growing bubble of matter in a vacuum. The matter is all pushing away from the center and expanding into emptiness, and because there is no deceleration, this will occur infinitely. It's not suggesting there is infinite matter IN the universe...it's that the eventual size of the bubble is potentially infinite.

By the way, most of this(expanding infinite universe) is just creating large constructs of space, something that particularly of itself isn't that related to life. For all we know, expansion could make life potentially less-possible.