Polls... whose polls?!

I really can't get over the fact that the polls claim that Hillary has a lead, and not because of my bias, because of the heaps of trouble she is involved in.
Even the conservative media reports her in the lead, and even go as far as to stipulate that Trump doesn't have a chance. Lets take a look.

Rallies:
Trump has to turn away people because of being sold out.
Clinton can barely fill a beer hall, let alone the arenas Trump fills.

Of course this is a Right leaning website...as the name suggests.

www.yesimright.com...

Social media: It's bursting at the seams for Trump.

www.thegatewaypundit.com...

Social Media Patterns Show Trump Is Looking at a Landslide Victory Jim Hoft Aug 7th, 2016 8:30 am 410 Comments Guest Post by Joe Hoft Landslide Current polls show the race for President is much tighter than it really is. Ann Coulter warned us years ago in her best seller Slander that Democrats and the liberal media always use polls to manipulate and discourage conservatives from voting. Thanks to social media there is more and more evidence that the polls are way off and if things stay as they are, Trump will win in a landslide! It’s evident Hillary has a hard time filling a Union Hall while Trump regularly turns people away from his stadium and arena venues. Now this – Analysis from social media provides additional support that Trump is likely to win in a landslide. So how bad is it? Evidence from ‘The Truth Division’ shows that if you look at social media, Trump is killing Hillary! Facebook Trump: 10,174,358 Likes Clinton: 5,385,959 Likes Trump has nearly double the amount of ‘Likes’ that Clinton has! When comparing recent ‘live streams’ on Facebook: Trump Live Stream Post — 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1.5 million views Clinton Live Stream Post —11,000 likes, 0 shares, 321,000 views Trump is crushing Clinton. Twitter Trump: 10.6 million followers Hillary: 8.1 million followers Trump has 30% more Twitter followers — and they translate into real votes. A recent study confirmed that 70% of his followers are real supporters, and 90% of those real followers have a voting history. Who knows if Hillary followers are even real? Youtube Live Stream Trump: Averages 30,000 live viewers per stream Clinton: Averages 500 live viewers per stream Trump has 5900% more live viewers than Clinton. That’s plain devastation! Instagram Trump: 2.2 million followers Clinton: 1.8 million followers Trump has 22% more Instagram followers. Reddit Trump: 197,696 subscribers Hillary: 24,429 subscribers Hillary for Prison: 55,228 subscribers

The Professor:

dailycaller.com...

A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent. Read more: dailycaller.com...

The app:

www.aol.com...

Zip allows people to answer questions anonymously, and a poll it did regarding who would win the presidential election this November said the Republican nominee would trounce Hillary Clinton 81 to 19 percent.

The prophecy:

I'm not going to touch this...not even with a long stick.

www.charismanews.com...



All of these topics have been touched on. I think the polls are skewed. I smell fish!

Many people that won't vote for trump is extremely eager to know what he says, it's like watching a train wreck.

Have you people accounted that into why so many followers?

Think about it, there are several threads here every day of trump said this or that by people that clearly hates trump, I bet they follow him on twitter to grab the next fool tweet before it gets deleted

a reply to: Indigent

I'm sure there are some who do that, but not in the numbers I see. I like Trump. Because he scares people…the right people.

a reply to: laughingdog

I'm gonna do something that I don't do here usually and be serious, no matter how much you think something can be scalable you cannot do it if you don't do a correct sampling, sampling is really hard to do right and how many follower got trump is not sampling, how many of those followers are at least Americans, how many are voting Americans?

Let's be conspiracional for a second here, I'm trump, polls say I'm losing, why don't we introduce a new polling alternative, let's measure success by social media, buy me 3 million followers from a farm in Asia...

Nope it's impossible that polls say the truth and it's impossible to falsify followers, or buy YouTube views... So clearly polls are lies and social media stats are pristine truth.

Really?

a reply to: laughingdog

Good thread, LD.. I don't subscribe to polls if they favor
somebody that visibly unfavorable out on the bricks.
For that last piece of prophecy, only God knows why
He picked him. Don't think I want to, except in practice:

* His dealmaking is well known, with only five/six failures and
bankruptcies out of over 110 startups. Good batting average...
in defiance to the MSM's contextual warping of the real picture.
*Elsewhere on his resume' is a conspicuous absence of close
friends and supporters that died mysteriously. Hmm: more nada.
*Although born and bred establishment, his national platform and
agenda are geared toward vacuuming up just the dirt in there.
THEY'd have you believe giant fissures will split open in every
populated area and turn America into New Improved Gehenna.
JUST ADD WATER err TRUMP
*Crickets from the big media about the recent LA trip screams
volumes about its obvious bias. Hey one semi full of supplies
won't even make a dent-- but it's a whole lot kinder thought
than grinding out a tweet (God, I'm perspiring) or going home
for my birthday party.AYFKM?

Like sampling more from the democratic party, and the left? Polling in this country is as corrupt as the democratic nominee.



Double post

a reply to: Indigent

Like sampling more from the democratic party, and the left? Polling in this country is as corrupt as the democratic nominee.

a reply to: laughingdog

But your completely non empiric method is somehow accurate? If polls don't become truth in November i will admit i was wrong, would you admit they where right if Trump lose?

a reply to: derfreebie

Nope not kidding...

a reply to: laughingdog

Then you are in denial, why even participate in this charade?

a reply to: Indigent

I will freely admit if Trump gets beat, that we are doomed.

originally posted by: laughingdog
Like sampling more from the democratic party, and the left? Polling in this country is as corrupt as the democratic nominee.



Double post

Oh, like skewed polls perhaps? Hmmmm....when did I hear that last... oh yes, the Romney Campaign. You know what? He lost.

They are using almost the exact same models from 2012 to poll but things have changed quite a bit since then.

For one, robo call phone polling is down by almost 5% since 2012. Only .09% even pick up and those that do, no way to confirm they are even eligible to vote. Likely not a big margin of error but this year a lot is on the line for illegals so more would be inclined to take the poll so bigger margin of error.

They also do not take into account social media and internet polls from what I have researched. From 2012 internet polls were more accurate than robo calling.

In October though the polls start changing a lot and get more aggressive. This part will get very interesting if there are any substantial leaks on Hillary. She has basically peaked and just trying to hold on tight. Her numbers will steadily drop, especially with hardly any more campaigning left for her. Meanwhile Trump is still working that part hard unlike Romney. I could see Trump taking the popular but that is about the extent of it without some serious help from the leaks. That would be the only way IMO. The electoral college fix is in.

a reply to: laughingdog

Rallies:
Trump has to turn away people because of being sold out.

Not sold out, but they give away more tickets than seating allows which makes it look like people are clamoring to him when in fact it is simply a strategy to make him look all the better and it works.

Another thing as far as rallies go, I can't say any of my family nor friends would go to a political rally, but we do vote and voters decide the election not rally turnouts.

a reply to: AngryCymraeg

Sure enough Romney lost, and so did the American people. For that loss the country got one of the worst presidents in U.S. history, not my opinion alone.
My opinion is far more harsh, one of the worst world leaders ever, barring Caligula.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: laughingdog

Rallies:
Trump has to turn away people because of being sold out.

Not sold out, but they give away more tickets than seating allows which makes it look like people are clamoring to him when in fact it is simply a strategy to make him look all the better and it works.

Another thing as far as rallies go, I can't say any of my family nor friends would go to a political rally, but we do vote and voters decide the election not rally turnouts.

Voters don't decide the election. Electoral College does. This is why I seldom vote for President. I think Trump can win the popular but that is about it. They are not going to give him the keys. It would take some insane leak on her to flip it. If that is out there it won't be dropped until days before for maximum effect. She would have no time to react or respond, it would simple be out there to add a weigh to anyone that voted for her. Most people could not do it.

a reply to: laughingdog

Yall doubters are nuts! Trump WILL WIN and by at least 7%-10%, bare minimum. The electoral college will go with Trump. This is destined.

a reply to: LifeMode

The way you say it seems you think that the voters do not have any determination in how the electoral college votes. That is what many people that do not understand the election system think, but they would be wrong. I am sure there has been at least once in our history where the Electoral College didn't go according to the populace, but it has probably been more than a hundred years ago when it happened.

I doubt Donald will even get close to winning the popular vote anyway.

originally posted by: AmericanRealist
a reply to: laughingdog

Yall doubters are nuts! Trump WILL WIN and by at least 7%-10%, bare minimum. The electoral college will go with Trump. This is destined.

I hope you are right. People really do not understand what happens when someone who abused their power is given even more power. They will abuse it even more. Look at her, can't even answer simple questions without lying and only regards it as a mistake not something she did wrong. It will be much much worse if she is elected. Her and her staff will build a wall but not to keep illegals out. To keep citizens out of her administration. It will be 10X worse than Obama.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: LifeMode

The way you say it seems you think that the voters do not have any determination in how the electoral college votes. That is what many people that do not understand the election system think, but they would be wrong. I am sure there has been at least once in our history where the Electoral College didn't go according to the populace, but it has probably been more than a hundred years ago when it happened.

I doubt Donald will even get close to winning the popular vote anyway.

It was 16 years ago in the 2000 election. Popular vote lost. It has happened 4 times:

The 2000 election was the most recent when the candidate who received the greatest number of electoral votes, and thus won the presidency, didn’t win the popular vote. But this scenario has played out in our nation’s history before.

In 1824, John Quincy Adams was elected president despite not winning either the popular vote or the electoral vote. Andrew Jackson was the winner in both categories. Jackson received 38,000 more popular votes than Adams, and beat him in the electoral vote 99 to 84. Despite his victories, Jackson didn’t reach the majority 131 votes needed in the Electoral College to be declared president. In fact, neither candidate did. The decision went to the House of Representatives, which voted Adams into the White House.

In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes won the election (by a margin of one electoral vote), but he lost the popular vote by more than 250,000 ballots to Samuel J. Tilden.

In 1888, Benjamin Harrison received 233 electoral votes to Grover Cleveland’s 168, winning the presidency. But Harrison lost the popular vote by more than 90,000 votes.

In 2000, George W. Bush was declared the winner of the general election and became the 43rd president, but he didn’t win the popular vote either. Al Gore holds that distinction, garnering about 540,000 more votes than Bush. However, Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266.