The Great game Turkey, Russia and NATO

a reply to: tsurfer2000h

I think it will come down to whether or not Russia can provide the money that Turkey get's from the US, because when we leave so do our billions of dollars.

It comes down to trust, as far as Erdogan is concerned the US was behind the recent Coup attempt. How can he trust his American Overlords after that?

Would you?

a reply to: MrSpad

To pivot or not to pivot ,that is the question that Turkey may have decided upon and decided to go east young man . With the Gulinist operation coming into the light as well as Britain exiting the EU Turkeys decision to get on the silk road might have been the deciding factor . Being friends with the west always had some internal strings attached to it . Guns drugs and war is not things you can play with for very long before it comes back to bite you .

The Opium running out of Afghanistan through NATO/Turkey was a cash cow for Gulen and the CIA/MIC black operations .The network across to the East is now a known, known . If Turkey is part of that silk road ,it will share all the info they have collected and provide it to other countries looking at being a part of it .

Turkey and their need for energy has to be a important factor .Russia and Iran will take care of that issue as well as provide them with some transit fees .The threat of the Kurdish state is less threatening if they are with Russia ,Syria ,Iraq and Iran . As a power block its pretty big and makes for a natural economic partnership .

But there is the time factor and the counter moves that are going to happen .Not sure the west can provide a big enough carrot to dangle now .The coup attempt was a fool me once shame on you ,and fool me twice shame on me .Or as Bush said well you cant fool me twice .

Moscow may break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine if there are no other options left on the table, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said, in commenting on the foiled terrorist attacks in Crimea that Russia blamed on Ukrainian intelligence. www.rt.com...

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: MrSpad

The big question in my mind is, will we see another coup attempt, this time CIA-backed, a'la the Arab Springs? I still wonder if the failed coup attempt was such, just foiled by Russian Intelligence.

The US has not exactly made a habit of walking away from strategic advantages in the Middle East.

TheRedneck

The US would not use an Arab Spring type coup. Coups or revolts by the population are simply to hard to control. People seem to forget the Arab Spring started in US ally Tunisia and the US response to it was not positive. The US history of coups has been an internal one with military involvement. And the US does not tale direct action to start them. What they will do is let it me known the US aid would not be effected if a regime changed so long an election was held within a reasonable time.

This is what they pretty much did in Egypt to get rid of the Muslim Brotherhood. Somebody made sure the Egyptian military would not see its aid hurt if it took action so long as election were held quickly. The coup went off and the Administration spent months refusing to call it a coup to avoid having to by law cut aid. When it took to long for election the US cut the minimal amount of aid it could by law. Then the day after the Muslim Brother hood was destroyed in a mass trial sending most of to prison or death, new elections were announced and US was restored including the aid that had been held back before. That is the way the US operates. Populace coups to dangerous, military coups that the US does not play a direct role in the safe way they will take. Since technically the US did not start it or plan it.

It should be noted that the MB tried to purge the Egyptian military much like is happening in Turkey. It did not work and I do not see it working it Turkey. The military will wait until the regime does some things to upset the population an then it will makes its move.

Turkey gets about 30 million in aid from the US plus billions in aid from the EU. The EU is by far Turkey biggest export partner. So staying with NATO and getting into the EU is Turkeys prime goals. And by using Russia as leverage they will likely get it. Just as the Saudis and Egypt flirted with t he Russians to get things the wanted from the US.

originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: MrSpad

Russia is just sitting back and laughing right now. They have Turkey in such a situational clusterfudge that Turkey has no clue what is going on.

I guarantee both the US and Russia had foreknowledge of this coup attempt, and that begs the question, why didn't they tell Erdogan?

Never let a good crisis go to waste.

Erdogan probably knows it by heart now.

originally posted by: DISRAELI

originally posted by: Vector99
I guarantee both the US and Russia had foreknowledge of this coup attempt, and that begs the question, why didn't they tell Erdogan?

Another thread on this board claims that Russia DID tell him.
Erdogan warned

Which leads me to believe that Russia was actually the provocateur in the entire thing. The US would obviously have known of it as well, which is why Turkish feelings towards the US are what they are. Russia had everything to gain and nothing to lose by instigating the coup.

If the goal was to eliminate Erdogan the coup would have been successful. I think it was more of a scare tactic to pressure Erdogan to become more friendly with Russia. It worked.

Erdogan was a sitting duck

"At least two F-16s harassed Erdogan's plane while it was in the air and en route to Istanbul. They locked their radars on his plane and on two other F-16s protecting him," a former military officer with knowledge of the events told Reuters. "Why they didn't fire is a mystery," he said.

IMO the coup was either initiated by Erdogan himself to complete his "purge", or it was Russian initiated to get Turkey to the table with Russia. Russia still hasn't forgot about the downed su-24, and it's quite possible this is Russia's retaliation.

Basically a "you shoot down our jet we destabilize your country" type move from Russia. Then they get the free pass because they "informed" Erdogan in the last moments.

a reply to: MrSpad

In a month we saw dramatic change in geopolitical equation in SE Europe - Asia minor. Turkey is no more the pillar of NATO against Russia in that part of the world. Still, I don't think the Russian-Turkey love affair will be very long. It is a convenience marriage, if not a second Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.

The world must realize there aren't two only powers with their allies. The Islamist powers get a new stronghold in Turkey, and seem to play their own game, although at times they seem bitterly divided between themselves. I don't know if we will have one united Islam or it will continue in two main camps for the time being.

There are more powers thou. We see China and India, so much diverse between themselves, united behind Russia in what some called Anti-NATO coalition. But let remain in European vicinity.

There is a power few people consider as such. it is Israel. Of course its value is rooted in the Biblical time and revelation of God. Today, we witness the drift between US current administration and Israel, for the first time after the modern Israeli state foundation. Simon Peres the Nobel peace price winner and long term Israeli politician and president, gave a lengthy interview for a Russian media (was it RT). Israel sold drones to Russia. Israel has long term interests in post-Soviet space of republics once home of majority of the European Jews. Does it mean, God's side changed from America to someone else, Russia or another, because of the changed attitude towards Israel? I know that is a thorny question, however we must not be afraid to deal with it. A victory of Hilary Clinton that seems very likely to me, would only increase that process.

Turkey's desire for revived Ottoman empire cannot but meet opposition from many sides. Kurdish state is supported by all - USA, Russia, Israel. I don't know how long Erdogan will stay the course of civilized politician who honors international agreements, after he brutally suppressed his opposition inside the country. Will he turn eyes at the South, that seems now forbidden by his new friend Russia that has vital interests in Syria. Will he turn against another virtual enemy elsewhere? History shows dictators like him always export interior problems in exterior conflicts.

The conflict in Ukraine has every chance to start again, this time between Ukrainian and Russian troops in Crimea. How could NATO be involved to help Ukraine, if NATO just lost its biggest member Turkey to endanger Russia from the South? Yes formally Turkey is still a member of NATO, one that puts ultimatums to the USA, the obvious leader of the alliance.

If erdogen dont want to be assassinated by professionals he better keep his happy ass out of the sandpit with Russia.

Erdogan’s playing the survival card. He may sincerely feel threatened because of the coup from his “friends and allies” at NATO.

To America and NATO and the west Erdogan has been too erratic lately and not playing the suppliant ally

His job was to allow a bum rush attack on Syria that would have taken down Assad by allowing the nutty jihadists free pass through Turkey.

There he got too greedy and instead of just doing the war he went and made business out of ISIS oil and lost the propaganda war since everybody knew what he was doing.

When the black operation to destroy Syria was upended by Russia then the rats (NATO, US, west, Turkey) like exposed thieves started to fight over the debacle along with the immigrant fiasco.

Erdogan’s problem is that he won’t commit wholly to one policy and see it through...he’s too greedy…he keeps going right and left and therefore loses direction repeatedly. He cant placate all sides with his half measures therefore he satisfies no one. So NATO had enough and tried to get rid of him in a quick strike that failed.

Erdogan therefore had no choice but to survive and seek the protection of the threat of allying with Russia against the west.

Though Erdogan is playing a dangerous game since now the west will really go after him likely

Erdogan wont make a clean break with NATO; he will initiate a policy to play both sides against each other…he has no choice….He has to get leverage against NATO.

The US have about 50 unclear warheads stationed in Turkey. And there was just a staged military takeover. Luckely it failed, because i Wonder what could have happened to them if it had succeeded?

The US is so worried about these Things falling into the wrong hands. ANd i Guess turkey is starting to become the wrong nation to have these Deadly weapons in its care.

Russia are going to recommission and Upgrade their four armored Trains for duty. These Trains were last used in 2009 to rappedly move troops and military hardware Close to Georgia.

It all sounds very World War II, right? But there is something to the concept as the rails remain Russia's most critical military logistical conduit. Moscow’s ability to rapidly morph its force posture along its western border, often using trains to do so, has even been identified by NATO leaders as an impressive and downright frightening capability.

www.thedrive.com...
www.bbc.com...

Russia are also building their nuke Train consept banned under the START2 treaty. but not excluded in 2011's New START treaty.
foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com...

a reply to: spy66


Unconfirmed News states that the US have started to move their nukes out of Turkey and to Romania.

eclestudio.com...

Nuclear missiles shouldn’t even be in those countries.

What about the NOBEL peace prize winner Obama negotiating with Putin an end to these monstrous weapons.

It will never happen because the grey flannel conman, Obama was never an independent voice just a puppet who does what he's told.

To day from the german government: 21.08.2016

Every household in Germany will be ordered to prepare Food and water for 10 days and enough cash to last for 21 days.

This is in case of war, economic collapse or a Natural disaster. It was actually mentioned in that order in a Meeting today by german government people.

Maybe there are some germans here who can mention some more about this News. I know it has started to come out to the media.

originally posted by: spy66
a reply to: spy66


Unconfirmed News states that the US have started to move their nukes out of Turkey and to Romania.

eclestudio.com...

Who makes up these idiotic stories? Why would the US move tactical nukes to a country that doesn't even have the facilities to store them securely? The B-61s are either still in Incirlik in their designated purpose built security vaults or have been removed to a secure location in Europe with the appropriate vaults and protection?

en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: tommyjo


Romania have a US missiele Shield instaled. And it is a lot Closer to the New frontline in question.

I think the deployment of these nukes Romania is part of a tactical move to get them closer to the frontline (ukraine).

a little known gem called Operation Gladio B

Well, at least one here is doing a little home work.
Its all been right there all this time and finally somebody is starting to take notice.

Buck

originally posted by: spy66
a reply to: tommyjo


Romania have a US missiele Shield instaled. And it is a lot Closer to the New frontline in question.

I think the deployment of these nukes Romania is part of a tactical move to get them closer to the frontline (ukraine).

It is an invented story. If Romania has the protected vaults to house such weapons then yes, but the person that invented the story has no clue.

The Romanian foreign ministry, MAE on Thursday dismissed claims that the US has started transferring nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania amid tensions in relations between Washington and Ankara. “The MAE firmly rejects these pieces of information,” the ministry said in a press release, without elaborating. Defence Minister Mihnea Motoc said that such media reports were just speculation and “so far there have not been any plans or discussions [among NATO members] on this topic”.

www.balkaninsight.com...

You might as well be reading a Sorcha Faal story!

a reply to: MrSpad

If he is actually getting friendly with his worst enemy, then some major thing has occurred. I would think the coup attempt has a few non Turkish helpers, which is making him jittery. Like the CIA want him out and a Western Democracy installed? Or maybe he is getting paranoid, dictators usually do, after all, they are in prisons of their own making..

originally posted by: tommyjo

originally posted by: spy66
a reply to: tommyjo


Romania have a US missiele Shield instaled. And it is a lot Closer to the New frontline in question.

I think the deployment of these nukes Romania is part of a tactical move to get them closer to the frontline (ukraine).

It is an invented story. If Romania has the protected vaults to house such weapons then yes, but the person that invented the story has no clue.

The Romanian foreign ministry, MAE on Thursday dismissed claims that the US has started transferring nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania amid tensions in relations between Washington and Ankara. “The MAE firmly rejects these pieces of information,” the ministry said in a press release, without elaborating. Defence Minister Mihnea Motoc said that such media reports were just speculation and “so far there have not been any plans or discussions [among NATO members] on this topic”.

www.balkaninsight.com...

You might as well be reading a Sorcha Faal story!

Only time will tell. Both US and Turkey have stated that they will coment on the claim.