8/8/16 Monmouth Poll: Hillary 50% - Trump 37%

Today a Monmouth University poll was released and has Hillary leading Trump 50-37% among likely voters.

Monmouth

Interesting to note, Hillary hits 50% in a 4 way race between her, Jill Stein, Johnson and Trump.

We're definitely seeing a trend with almost all of the polls released since the DNC convention having Hillary up by double digits in almost all of them.

Monmouth is rated as an A+ pollster on 538.

Clinton also leads Trump by 10 points in Pennsylvania. 47-37%

Link

Hmm...
35% Democrats polled.
26% Republicans

As for PA:
46% registered Democrats (at the household level : 51% registered democrats)
40% registered Republicans (at the household level : 38% registered Republicans)
Both way too high for a valid sample as they underplay independents.

So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

originally posted by: muse7
Today a Monmouth University poll was released and has Hillary leading Trump 50-37% among likely voters.

Monmouth

Interesting to note, Hillary hits 50% in a 4 way race between her, Jill Stein, Johnson and Trump.

We're definitely seeing a trend with almost all of the polls released since the DNC convention having Hillary up by double digits in almost all of them.

Monmouth is rated as an A+ pollster on 538.

Clinton also leads Trump by 10 points in Pennsylvania. 47-37%

Link

Polls are useless. They are a sociological steering mechanism that attempts to use peer pressure to achieve a specific outcome. In which case polls are for the weak minded. Polls are an insult and to use one in support of an argument really is grasping at straws and show a true lack of critical thinking ability.

Cheers - Dave

Hay guys, the media and left wingers say it's all over, so we might as well just pack up and give up!

My God.

They're all going crazy

Here are the recent polls - post conventions.
There are only two polls, highlighted in yellow that are weighting the sample to account for party affiliation. These polls show a close race.
All the others have skews towards democrats in the sample. At the top of the table is the latest Gallup data on party affiliation. Some of the polls (notably the ones with big Clinton leads) are massively skewed towards Democrats in the sample.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

I don't think we will get to see a debate. I have already placed a substantial wager that Trump will punk out.

Do you think Trump is looking at the polls, if so will it affect his bid for the potus. My bet is that he is looking for the most graceful way to bail.

Of course the polls are BS when they don't favor your candidate. No mystery in that....

a reply to: olaru12

The polls are BS when they are manipulated to make the least popular candidate look better by questioning more of her supporters than anyone else.

We still have not established the terms of our wager on whether Trump will bail. You said you had some dollars to put up. Lets be gentleman and I will open with a $10 bet on him not dropping out. Do you accept, counter, or dismiss???

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: Bluntone22
So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

I don't think we will get to see a debate. I have already placed a substantial wager that Trump will punk out.

Do you think Trump is looking at the polls, if so will it affect his bid for the potus. My bet is that he is looking for the most graceful way to bail.

Of course the polls are BS when they don't favor your candidate. No mystery in that....

My guess is that his team will be all over the underlying poll data and will know from the first 5 minutes of looking at it that they are conclusive due to to the skews in sampling...

You will lose your substantial wager - sorry to break it to you.

originally posted by: DoctorCowboy

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: Bluntone22
So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

I don't think we will get to see a debate. I have already placed a substantial wager that Trump will punk out.

Do you think Trump is looking at the polls, if so will it affect his bid for the potus. My bet is that he is looking for the most graceful way to bail.

Of course when the polls are BS when they don't favor your candidate. No mystery in that....

Im sure it was so substantial.

a reply to: olaru12

CAN I get a piece of THAT ?

originally posted by: AmericanRealist
a reply to: olaru12

The polls are BS when they are manipulated to make the least popular candidate look better by questioning more of her supporters than anyone else.

We still have not established the terms of our wager on whether Trump will bail. You said you had some dollars to put up. Lets be gentleman and I will open with a $10 bet on him not dropping out. Do you accept, counter, or dismiss???

I call and raise $10...your pay pal idea was a good one!

originally posted by: TheBulk
Hay guys, the media and left wingers say it's all over, so we might as well just pack up and give up!

I'm wearing a pantsuit right now!

originally posted by: DoctorCowboy

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: Bluntone22
So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

I don't think we will get to see a debate. I have already placed a substantial wager that Trump will punk out.

Do you think Trump is looking at the polls, if so will it affect his bid for the potus. My bet is that he is looking for the most graceful way to bail.

Of course when the polls are BS when they don't favor your candidate. No mystery in that....

Im sure it was so substantial.

I have one bet where I will eat my shoes and shave my head if Trump wins the election. If I win....free lunch for the rest of my life!!!

a reply to: olaru12

you have a message in your inbox.

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: Bluntone22
So do you suppose we will ever get to see Hillary and the Donald in a debate?
I'll pay a bit more attention to polls after that.

I don't think we will get to see a debate. I have already placed a substantial wager that Trump will punk out.

Do you think Trump is looking at the polls, if so will it affect his bid for the potus. My bet is that he is looking for the most graceful way to bail.

Of course the polls are BS when they don't favor your candidate. No mystery in that....

The more you keep on about Trump wanting to drop out or avoiding the debates tells us volumes of how worried you really are. There will be debates and Trump isn't going to drop out. Why do you keep beating a dead horse? You better keep praying for no debates because Trump will completely destroy Hillary. I wouldn't bet against Trump if I were you as that's been a losing bet for many during his entire campaign.