China India Tension building

China and India have been long been rivals and as of late things have not been going well between the two. What is the problem? Pretty much you have two growing powers right on top of each other. And each trying to secure that part of the world as their sphere of influence. Why should this concern us? Well you are talking about two of the worlds largest militaries that share a border and have nuclear weapons. And it to be frank if the two nations were to go to war, their is not much the US or anybody else could to stop them. So what are the problems between China and India?

1. Border disputes - India and China have long standing border disputes that have resulted in troops moving into each others claimed territory and on occasion war and conflict. These disputes remain today.

2. Completion for Nepal - Nepal sits between the two powers and long has been a hot spot as the two nations struggle to be the dominate power in this small nation who sits in strategic position. This is on going today.

3. Pakistan- India's long time enemy and China's long time nuclear armed ally. China's support for Pakistan is often used to annoy India when China is upset with India.

4. China's expansion into the India's waters. Chinese warships began appearing in the Indian Ocean and Bay Bengal a couple of years ago. This concerned India a great deal as they see no need for a Chinese presence beyond threatening India. India however would not take this sitting down.

5. India joins the US and Japan in the South China Sea. With China's move into what India sees at its area of influence India returned the favor in forming close working relationship with the US and Japan and also with Vietnam, Philippines and Australia. Now Indian ships can be found in the South China Sea along with its allies while at the same time inviting Japan and the US to join it in joint exercises in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean.

So what is going on in these areas today that is of concern? It seems the recent rise in tensions started with:
China blocks India's NSG membership

This of course has made India very upset. So with the recent ruling against China in the South China Sea, India doubled down on

"India supports freedom of navigation and overflight, and unimpeded commerce, based on the principles of international law, as reflected notably in UNCLOS,"

it has also caused India and Vietnam to dig in on their joint oil ventures in the area. India wades into South China Sea dispute

Problems also continue between China and India in Nepal where India sees China as propping up an anti Indian leader who is on the verge of losing power. Nepal Crisis

We are also seeing a border build up. In response to what India claims are China's increasing its infrastructure and military posture, it has deployed 100 T-72s to the border area where they have not been since the war in the 1960s. This is not a sign of anything happening now but, it is sure sign tensions between the two sides are growing. India deploys T-72 tanks

In what India's sees a provication China has sent troops under joint patrols in the disputed Kashmir zone for the first time. Provoking India

However all is not lost just yet. Both sides are aware of what a flare up could lead to and working on finding ways to avoid it. India China could replicate Sino-Russian protocals to avoid border row







Now, neither China nor India is looking for a war. They are to evenly matched and both have nukes and neither of the them really can beat the other without outside help. India and the US do not have a formal alliance so India can not 100% expect US help if it goes to war with China. And for the China the reverse is true, it can not be sure the US would not support India in a war. Much like with Taiwan, with no 100% answer on US support India is not embolden to start trouble and China and has to consider the US in any equation. This makes it less likely the two will go to war. However, if you want a real hot spot in world this is it. India and Pakistan could flare up and anytime and if China thinks India is being two heavy handed they could act against India. Adding to the equation is what Russia would do if two nations it considers friends, despite their lack of support in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria. Would Russia take a side or just sit it out? I do not think China or India know the answer to that. Although to be honest their is not much Russia could do for either side in a conventional war and its nukes would overkill in a nuclear one. Most likely you would see both the US and Russia try and pry the two sides apart but, this would be hard to do even working together. So lets just hope cooler heads remain in these nations and that they can keep small things from expending into big things.

There has been talk of a war between China and India for a number of decades. Personally I can't see why there should be without the manipulation of the U.S.

It's in the best interests of both countries to build trade deals, but no, someone wants them at war with one another. Quelle surprise!!

oh please no. war between them could be ten years and a million dead...and that's conventional war.
if they start nuking it's apocalypse stuff.

heaven help us if a third party (coughPutincough) gets involved and forces the issue.

people, people, the world is big enough for us all.

thanks for OP; this stuff gets lost in the election and the incident-of-the-week in media.

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
There has been talk of a war between China and India for a number of decades. Personally I can't see why there should be without the manipulation of the U.S.

It's in the best interests of both countries to build trade deals, but no, someone wants them at war with one another. Quelle surprise!!

India and China have fought wars and conflicts against each other since 1960's. The US had no role then and they have no role now. India asked the US to intervene in the war in 62 but the US declined being in hip deep in the Cuban missile crisis. China and India's problems have nothing to do with the US and never has. The US would prefer they never fight as the mess it would cause could prove very bad. The US however can not do much about it if they do chose to fight.

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
There has been talk of a war between China and India for a number of decades. Personally I can't see why there should be without the manipulation of the U.S.

It's in the best interests of both countries to build trade deals, but no, someone wants them at war with one another. Quelle surprise!!

India and China have fought wars and conflicts against each other since 1960's. The US had no role then and they have no role now. India asked the US to intervene in the war in 62 but the US declined being in hip deep in the Cuban missile crisis. China and India's problems have nothing to do with the US and never has. The US would prefer they never fight as the mess it would cause could prove very bad. The US however can not do much about it if they do chose to fight.

Okay, that's fair enough. Times like these I tend to look at who would benefit the most. Oh, hello, it's America, no matter who loses.

It's all part of the plan, it's out of our control dude.

a reply to: MrSpad

I think this is a list of powder kegs eager to blow.

And Chinese pride is inflating at an increasing rate.

Then there's the oligarchy eager to light off WW3 . . .

This is a time when good people hide themselves . . . as The Book says.

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
There has been talk of a war between China and India for a number of decades. Personally I can't see why there should be without the manipulation of the U.S.

It's in the best interests of both countries to build trade deals, but no, someone wants them at war with one another. Quelle surprise!!

India and China have fought wars and conflicts against each other since 1960's. The US had no role then and they have no role now. India asked the US to intervene in the war in 62 but the US declined being in hip deep in the Cuban missile crisis. China and India's problems have nothing to do with the US and never has. The US would prefer they never fight as the mess it would cause could prove very bad. The US however can not do much about it if they do chose to fight.

Okay, that's fair enough. Times like these I tend to look at who would benefit the most. Oh, hello, it's America, no matter who loses.

It's all part of the plan, it's out of our control dude.

No, the United States of America isn't behind the growing Indian/Chinese border tensions.

a reply to: MrSpad

I too have been following the developments in the S. China sea although I must admit not as much about the India and Chinese problems. I agree with you that the whole area is ramping up in tensions. China so far has said they will not back down with their efforts in the S. China sea and are presenting a hard face to the world and everyone who does not agree with them.

It was not to long ago most thought it would be Pakistan and India that would start a nuclear war even if it was a limited affair with tactical nukes. So far the world has been saved from such an event.
China is ramping up their defenses and appear to be in for the long haul
youtu.be...


Had an Iranian friend tell me all wars are about money if you did deep enough.. Billions of barrels of oil which is wanted by both India and China seems to be a catalyst.
youtu.be...


I do not know what paperwork was signed between the Philippines and Russia but Russia has said they would back the Philippines in the depute... However the current president of the P.I. is a rather unknown card in this game IMO.
youtu.be...


India says its' Navy will defend Asian countries against Chinese aggression.. I do not know if you have been to India or China but China is first world infrastructure for the most part where India ain't even close..
youtu.be...


Anyway just thought I would add some stuff to your thread. Pakistan IMO could be turned into a desert by India building a few damns and shutting of their water supply. The big fly in the ointment has been the USA support of Pakistan in years past as a blocking action against India. Geopolitical concerns have now changed and it would seem everyone is falling over themselves to become best buds with India ... China is now buds with Pakistan... All wars begin with assets being moved into place.. The is much movement all over the area as if getting ready for something (which is prudent) however, so far no one is stupid enough to start a real shooting war... Let us hope it stays that way... However China so far ain't budging.
S&F for you bringing this up

a reply to: MrSpad


The only way Chin ever takes both Russi and the US AND India out is to gain momentum taking on the big boy India in long protracted conventional action so you can mobilise your entire counry, then shang-Hi Russia, and then when you display world dominance break the US any way any time of your choosing.

This has always been a unique situation where I don't think the MAD principle would apply.

If China nukes India, or visa versa, this is a scenario in which I don't see other nations getting involved with. I don't feel that an exchange between these two (nuclear) would cause a global WWIII nuclear end of humanity type of thing...

a reply to: MrSpad



So the usual human circular folly is apparent here: China and India are rivals but India is allied closely with Russia as China is also allied closely with Russia too ( though against the US) [but India is close to the US]. India and Pakistan are true enemies so Pakistan is close to China (against India). So China and Pakistan are on the same side against India but only one of them Pakistan hates Russia but Chain loves Russia

But Russia traditionally has a problem with Pakistan which is very close to China yet China is still close to Russia.

Figure that out

originally posted by: Willtell
a reply to: MrSpad



So the usual human circular folly is apparent here: China and India are rivals but India is allied closely with Russia as China is also allied closely with Russia too ( though against the US) [but India is close to the US]. India and Pakistan are true enemies so Pakistan is close to China (against India). So China and Pakistan are on the same side against India but only one of them Pakistan hates Russia but Chain loves Russia

But Russia traditionally has a problem with Pakistan which is very close to China yet China is still close to Russia.

Figure that out

Most of it is less about like and more about how useful the other guy is.

As Russia has become less useful to India at has turned to the US

As Pakistan has become less useful to the US it has turned to India

China has its uses for Russia but, also does not miss an opportunity to undermine Russia when it is in Chinese interests (trade and defense ties with Ukraine, no support for Russia in Crimea or Syria, stealing Russian arms markets with clones, and stealing trade and influence from Russia in the Former Soviet Central Asian States).

Russia has a great use for China but, never seems to get any support. Of course party of that may be Russia selling weapons to India and Vietnam China's rivals.

China has use of Pakistan as Pakistan has been China's only real ally, of course Chinese foreign aid to Pakistan is more than the US foreign aid to the entire world.

However, China's trade with the US and India is far more important than its trade with Russia or Pakistan.

The problem still remains however they you have thee large Army's with nukes right on top of each other. And it is a place so far away the worlds only super power that not even the US could stop them from taking each other on and doing something stupid.

a reply to: MrSpad

A weaker US stance, has emboldened China to start pushing ? test resolve, see how far they can go?

Pressure in the China sea, with the islands, and the built islands/ territorial disputes?

Pressure in Europe via Russia with Crimea?

Taking advantage of a very weak President?

I don't think that it is a push towards a full blown nuke war, I see it as taking advantage of weak US leadership...

that's the real JV team IMO...

YMMV...

A War is less likely to happen at the moment for a couple of reasons.

- India will never militarily involve itself in south China sea, India will only arm the Vietnamese and Philippines, never get directly involved.

- India and China trade has almost crossed $100 billion dollars. Added to that there is a massive Trade deficit between India and China of $44.6 Billion mostly just processed goods, nothing vital. India could simply block that.

- Straits of Malacca is an Indian Navy strong hold due to the presence of Andaman Nicobar Islands Naval base. India could simply block all access to China starving china of fuel. The Indian Navy along with its Aircraft carrier and 3 additional Su-30Mki and Mig-29kub squadrons + P8I Orion and AWACS would be a considerable ditterent for any Navy to stop.

- China is already having troubles in south china sea and the Vietnamese, it is unlikely it will start another costly front in its western border.

- A War between 2 massive economies will plunge the world economy into chaos, that alone will be a massive deterrent.

a reply to: Wookiep

IF china and India nukes each other, say good bye to the world. The radiation alone could reduce food production on the planet by 30-40% or far more considering if one country used nukes, you are most likely to see a full scale nuclear strike on each other, than 1-2 nukes..

Nepal is totally Chinese, its not even shown on modern maps, only the old capital is shown, Lhasa, that's it, no Nepal.

originally posted by: ElGoobero
oh please no. war between them could be ten years and a million dead...and that's conventional war.
if they start nuking it's apocalypse stuff.

heaven help us if a third party (coughPutincough) gets involved and forces the issue.

people, people, the world is big enough for us all.

thanks for OP; this stuff gets lost in the election and the incident-of-the-week in media.

A conventional war between China and india. well it would whittle down the numbers we would have to deal with. Long as none of the first world countries are involved i say let em. Over crowding is a huge problem and this would thin the herd.
A nuclear exchange? china has 270 warheads give or take india has fewer. I highly doubt it would be a ful exchange because that would leave them defenseles against other countries in a retaliation strike.
I also think that you will see a change in MAD. To something like SAD, Specific Assurred destruction.

originally posted by: JacKatMtn
a reply to: MrSpad

A weaker US stance, has emboldened China to start pushing ? test resolve, see how far they can go?

Pressure in the China sea, with the islands, and the built islands/ territorial disputes?

Pressure in Europe via Russia with Crimea?

Taking advantage of a very weak President?

I don't think that it is a push towards a full blown nuke war, I see it as taking advantage of weak US leadership...

that's the real JV team IMO...

YMMV...

The Chinese would tell you the US has been overfly aggressive. The Pacific pivot, deploying more US forces into the region, bringing the Pacific states plus India into a unified front to face China, the US ignoring Chinese warning and sailing through Chinese claimed waters, and selling arms to India, Taiwan, the Philippines and now Vietnam. The US has shown very strong leadership in Asia. Pretty much nothing more you could do other than direct military action and the would be just plain stupid.

a reply to: MrSpad

I think another pressure point is that Chinese manufacturing is beginning to shift out of the country while India's is ramping up. The economic impact is that India eventually will have the ability to ramp up defensive capability spending on a higher delta than China.

True Obama has no depth in foreign policy.

Susan Rice, the idiot of all time, is his National security advisor so Obama has not any good advisors

I actually believe the superclass bosses hired Kerry to take over foreign policy and Obama is just filling the seat... Obama's given a script to utter and that's it...

So the world is falling apart without any US leadership.

Maybe that’s good but at least Obama( or US, or whoever is running the show) aught to try to formulate some kind of coherent world policy.

He let ignorant Hillary mess up so the superclass sent in Kerry, the Skull n Bones guy to supposedly guide FP

He’s not doing to well either. Kerry is too bogged down in the ME