Is a Pole Flip on the Horizon? What are the Symptoms?

I have always been a firm believer in the pole flip theory based off of my understanding of magnetism and how the earths magnetic shield is created and changes due to the core of the earth/ rotation/ cosmic influences.

While amateur in nature, this understanding has led me to believe that such a thing may be on the horizon.

This first snippet is from a site I frequent to catch up on earth and weather changes. It is also what I'll be using to outline this theory. They pool most for the info together for you from many different sources and regurgitate it for the lay person.

The recent mapping of Earths magnetic field reveals what could be the verge of a pole flip in the making. Granted it is hard to postulate the time frame for such things as cosmically humans a re a hiccup in time and this could take a while....but what are the effects? ANd what if this happens over a shorter time frame than we think it will? What could be the symptoms of such?

The magnetic fields are mainly produced by a giant pool of molten, swirling liquid iron in the Earth's outer core, 3 000 km (1 864 miles) below the surface. Its behavior can be compared to the one of a spinning conductor in a bicycle dynamo, generating electrical currents which, in turn, constantly affect the electromagnetic field. The scientists think that accelerations in field strength are related to changes in the flow and oscillations of the liquid iron. Research results from 2014 suggest our planet's magnetic field is weakening 10 times faster than previously thought, losing 5% of its strength every ten years. One of the explanations of the observed magnetic field weakening trend is that the magnetic poles are preparing to flip. This phenomenon occurs approximately every 100 000 years, and the exact effects are unknown

With this new mapping technology and the rate of magnetic field decay being faster than previously thought could we be able to estimate the time frame of a pole flip?

Lets get back to that later.....Another possible sign of pole flip could come from the earth itself as we know the core creates the field, so would the mantle be a possible place to find perturbation in the core? I think so. As we know the outer core is a swirling mass of liquid metal around an iron inner core producing magnetic continuity that produces our field as well as earths motion. We know that the core like a fusion reactor can be affected by high energy protons and of the like. An example would be a light bulb with a surge of electricity going to it until it gets so bright it pops. Same principal

Earth’s mantle moves up and down “like a yo-yo”

They found that the mantle convects in a chaotic fashion, but with length scales on the order of 1 000 km (621 miles), instead of the 10 000 km (6 200 miles) that had been predicted. “These results will have wider reaching implications, such as how we map the circulation of the world’s oceans in the past, which are affected by how quickly the sea floor is moving up and down and blocking the path of water currents,” said Hoggard. “Considering that the surface is moving much faster than we had previously thought, it could also affect things like the stability of the ice caps and help us to understand past climate change.”

Granted this is in the long term of time frames yet we know that if the earth is imbalance weight wise, that it effects the wobble and causes upheaval until the balance is restored. Like a top that wobbles then rights itself to a more stable spin. If there is upheaval in the core, there is upheaval in the mantle, and thus the surface of the earth.

How could the physical properties effect the magnetic pull of a pole? Well, I believe they go hand in hand from the core out.

Could a pre-pole flip effect climate? I would like to think so. What was dry is now wet, what was hot is now cold. This earth being made up primarily of rock with magnetic properties on top of the magnetic producing engine at the core would imply that land shifts with the magnetic properties of the core which in turn manipulates where the field ends up in polarity. Not counting the electric properties of such an event would have on flora and fauna.

I hope I'm not losing you here cause at this point even I'm confused...But I think you see what I'm angling at.

Earth’s magnetic field can flip in less than 100 years

It is known that Earth’s magnetic field has flipped many times throughout the planet’s history. Its dipole magnetic field remains about the same intensity for thousands to millions of years, but for incompletely known reasons it occasionally weakens (such is the case now) and, presumably over a few thousand years, reverses direction. A new study, however, shows that the final stage - a sudden 180-degree flip - can happen within a human lifetime. The new study was done by a team of scientists from Italy, France and USA and it demonstrates that the last magnetic reversal of Earth's poles which happened some 786 000 years ago actually happened very quickly, in less than 100 years. The discovery comes shortly after ESA's "Swarm" satellite array revealed that the intensity of Earth’s magnetic field is decreasing 10 times faster than normal, decreasing in strength about 5 percent a decade rather than 5 percent a century. Though a magnetic reversal is a major planet-wide event driven by convection in Earth’s iron core, there are no documented catastrophes associated with past reversals, despite much searching in the geologic and biologic record. Today, however, such a reversal could potentially wreak havoc with our electrical grid, generating currents that might take it down. And since Earth’s magnetic field protects life from energetic particles from the Sun and cosmic rays, both of which can cause genetic mutations, a weakening or temporary loss of the field before a permanent reversal could increase cancer rates. The danger to life would be even greater if flips were preceded by long periods of unstable magnetic behavior.

Now to the meat of it, given that pole flips happen, given that the tend to wreak havoc on the physical, magnetic, and electric properties of the earth and all that are on it, Do you think that it is possible to see the symptoms of an impending pole shift? If one were to happen within a human life span, do you think its something we could survive?

Just a few more things for the noodle on the subject...

About geomagnetic reversal and poleshift

Earth's magnetic field showing signs of significant weakening


It is my personal belief that a pole shift could happen at the snap of a finger, and that it rolls much faster than people realize. While some take forever to occur, it has been proven that some happen much much faster. The violence involved in that would have to include the physical properties of the earth as magnetism is everything. Thoughts?

originally posted by: BooCrackers
Now to the meat of it, given that pole flips happen, given that the tend to wreak havoc on the physical, magnetic, and electric properties of the earth and all that are on it, Do you think that it is possible to see the symptoms of an impending pole shift? If one were to happen within a human life span, do you think its something we could survive?

The pole flips are too irregular to predict when the next one will be based on any timing pattern that I can see, though there may be other signs preceding the flip, such as the 6000 year period of instability preceding the previous flip:

Earth’s magnetic field could flip within a human lifetime

The magnetic record the Italian-led team obtained shows that the sudden 180-degree flip of the field was preceded by a period of instability that spanned more than 6,000 years.

However I don't know if we get that much warning before every flip.

Can we survive it? We do have a good record of when previous pole flips happened, so you could check to see if any mass extinctions coincide with previous pole flips...did they? I think our technology could be inconvenienced and we might get a few more cancers due to less protection from energetic particles, but with a 6000 year warning we would have plenty of time to increase the robustness of our electric grid in preparation for the shift, or we may even have local generating abilities in 6000 years, instead of our current reliance on the grid.

If it does flip, one problem will be solved: The north magnetic pole will actually become a north magnetic pole.

Currently, before the flip, Earth's north magnetic pole is a south magnetic pole, so the next flip will eliminate that confusion.

originally posted by: BooCrackers
Now to the meat of it, given that pole flips happen, given that the tend to wreak havoc on the physical, magnetic, and electric properties of the earth and all that are on it...

"All that are on it"? You may want to re-check your sources (or find better ones). The Earths magnetic poles are constantly moving, and have flipped many times in the past, and life has gotten along just fine. Animals such as birds who use the magnetic field for navigation may be confused for awhile, but that's about it;

No physical properties of the planet (aside from the magnetic aspects) are effected from the shifting of the magnetic poles, and such an event does not "wreak havoc" on all life on the planet.

originally posted by: AdmireTheDistance

originally posted by: BooCrackers
Now to the meat of it, given that pole flips happen, given that the tend to wreak havoc on the physical, magnetic, and electric properties of the earth and all that are on it...

"All that are on it"? You may want to re-check your sources (or find better ones). The Earths magnetic poles are constantly moving, and have flipped many times in the past, and life has gotten along just fine. Animals such as birds who use the magnetic field for navigation may be confused for awhile, but that's about it;

No physical properties of the planet (aside from the magnetic aspects) are effected from the shifting of the magnetic poles, and such an event does not "wreak havoc" on all life on the planet.

You are spot on with that.
People worry about the Earth like it is fragile. She is a pretty tough gal. If the magnetic poles flipped suddenly, which I doubt, it would wreck havic on our technology . In essence sending humans into a spiraling self destruction. Earth, the planet, will be fine.

a reply to: Onesmartdog
I'm not sure why it would cause large problems with technology, other than magnetic compasses not much would be affected.

I recently ran across an interesting article that indicates that the "recent" decline in the strength of Earth's field (which has been significantly higher than average) may just indicate a return to a more normal field strength rather than an imminent reversal.

This new evidence is consistent with the factor-of-2 equator-to-pole paleointensity signature of a geocentric axial dipole field and also indicates that the time-averaged field is considerably weaker than the present-day field. The resulting dipole moment provides a new calibration standard for cosmogenic isotope production rates and suggests that the present decrease in geomagnetic field intensity may simply be a return to a more average magnitude rather than a harbinger of a polarity reversal.

source

The current state of affairs:

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Onesmartdog
I'm not sure why it would cause large problems with technology, other than magnetic compasses not much would be affected.

I don't think it has to and as I said in my previous post if we have 6000 years of warning to shore up our electric grid there doesn't have to be a problem with the electric grid.

The problem might be that if it happened soon, even if the flip didn't put a huge stress on the electric grid, the idea is the "straw that broke the camel's back" influence on the grid that it's so close to the edge now that it doesn't take much to bring it down, like happened with the cascade of failures in the 2003 blackout which like a blackout from a pole flip could be prevented with a robust grid (which we don't currently have AFAIK).

Another Carrington event is widely thought to have the capability of shutting down the grid, and what would happen in that case is more charged particles could reach the grid and possibly cause an overload/shutdown condition by inducing currents the system isn't designed to handle or that look like fault currents which trigger automatic shutdown. A pole flip could also result in an increase of charged particles reaching the grid, not from increased solar activity like the Carrington event, but from reduced protection from normal solar activity by the Earth's diminished or unstable magnetic field. I think another Carrington event would be worse though.

If someone was worried about the pole flip or possibly more likely in our lifetimes another Carrington event, they might want to get a portable generator as a backup in case the grid goes down, but so far I haven't seen any signs there will be a pole flip anytime soon, or within our lifetimes, probably not.

a reply to: Arbitrageur
You are mistaken in what causes problems with the grid.

Problems are created on the grid when a CME causes fluctuations in the magnetic field. Those fluctuations induce very low frequency currents, effectively DC currents, in long conductors (like powerlines). It is not so much that the currents are particularly strong (potentials of a few hundred volts in long lines), it is that within transformers the DC currents don't play well with the AC currents which are being transmitted. It creates nasty eddy currents that tend to melt the transformer cores.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...


So, since grid problems are a result of currents induced by the Earth's field, a weakened or missing field would not cause those problems.

originally posted by: Phage
So, since grid problems are a result of currents induced by the Earth's field, a weakened or missing field would not cause those problems.

So UC Berkeley news is mistaken?

news.berkeley.edu...

Though a magnetic reversal is a major planet-wide event driven by convection in Earth’s iron core, there are no documented catastrophes associated with past reversals, despite much searching in the geologic and biologic record. Today, however, such a reversal could potentially wreak havoc with our electrical grid, generating currents that might take it down.

MIT news is mistaken?
news.mit.edu...

With a weakened geomagnetic field, increased solar radiation might damage electronics — from individual pacemakers to entire power grids

Columbia University news is mistaken?
www.ldeo.columbia.edu...

When the field is weaker, more radiation gets through, which can disrupt power grids

I could go on with more sources, but a lot of university sources say the grid could be disrupted.

a reply to: Arbitrageur
University newsletters and blogs should not be considered scientific sources.


But regarding your first source; well yes, I suppose if the field very suddenly reversed it would induce currents. But that has nothing to do with what you said.


The Earth's atmosphere is quite an effective shield against solar radiation, though as you stated, higher energy cosmic radiation could lead to a slight increase in cancer rates. But if the flux levels were high enough to induce currents (as you said) cancer would be the least of our worries. Come to think of it, so would the loss of power. But I'm not even clear on how increased particle counts would induce currents.

Heh, your links are about the study I was talking about.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

I could go on with more sources, but a lot of university sources say the grid could be disrupted.

Them being newsletters, it was pre-chewed by a comm major. You have to sort of pick out original intent, unless you can find the papers they refer to.

The primary thing to worry about on the reversal is chaotic bucking of the geomagnetic field. If it dwindles to nothing and then gradually returns with the other polarity, then it's pretty much down to updating software and whatnot on apps that care about which direction "north" actually is and which use magnetic compasses.

More likely, when it gets down to it, it's going to have some period of really whacky wild chaotic oscillation. THAT will take down the grid.

If it's down to a really intense flux of solar protons or electrons hitting the ground, we're all going to fry anyway. But you'll notice that devices outside Earth's magnetopause don't instantly fail - Apollo comes to mind - so you have to wonder about that one. I'd have to see a better explanation of why SOHO doesn't roll feet up from the same issue.

I just find it interesting that you chose the term "horizon" in connection with a post about the poles, another cartographic feature.

I too suffer from intractable pun-making. It's the sad truth.

All wonderful replies, thanks so much for getting the convo moving. Again I'm primarily an amateur in this stuff and had many questions. You guys have pointed me in the right direction.

Yet even if a magnetic reversal occurred, wouldn' t that physically effect animals that use such means for navigation?

Honestly I think there are other physical properties that could wind up being affected by pole flip, yet since no one was around for the last one to relay that info? Would it be safe to assume that some scientific models regarding this could be guessing on the effects to the planet?

I do think our electronics would at the very least be boinked, and other nuances would manifest itself in theory. Yet how can we be sure that these things cannot be that sudden or that violent?

At the very least if the shield dropped we'd all get a beautiful tan no?

a reply to: BooCrackers
Migrating animals could well be affected, but their ancestors have been through it before (as have ours).

But no, no effect on tanning. That's strictly a matter of UV, which is not affected by the Earth's magnetic field.

I have jut been reading this -

Earth's magnetic field is not about to reverse

In essence, an international team has finally got around to investigating whether or not the Earth's magnetic field is due to flip (due to much recent speculation). The researchers investigated the Laschamp and Mono Lake magnetic excursion events from 41'000 and 34'000 years ago respectively, the last time the field was extremely close to flipping (it didn't those times either).

The research indictaes that the current flip is actually stronger than those historical points, both of which it recovered from without flipping. This means a magnetic reversal is highly unlikely.

"Why Earth's magnetic field might not flip at all."

"Researchers found that today's patterns don't resemble the two most extreme disruptions in the past 50,000 years, when the magnetic field nearly reversed."

Source: www.livescience.com...