Clinton and Trump Tied at 38% in latest Rasmussen poll

The latest Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely voters shows that Clinton and Trump are tied at 38% each in a head to head match up.
Interestingly 24% said they would vote for neither (many of them preferring any 3rd party candidate).

How does this break down:

Gender: No surprises, Hillary wins with women, but not by as much as one would think.
Women - Hillary wins 41% to 35%
Men - Trump wins 41% to 35%

Age: Older and more experienced go for Trump
18-39 year olds - Hillary wins 41% to 26% (total of 67% here tells me many Bernie fans have said they would not vote)
40-64 - Trump wins 41% to 38%
65+ - Trump wins 47% to 37%

Race: Hillary wins with minorities
White - Trump wins 43% to 34%
Black - Hillary wins 57% to 18% (18% is very high for Trump or any other Republican in recent history... if he holds that much support he may well win)
Other - Hillary wins 44% to 28%

Income : Trump wins with people earning in all bands up to $200k.. Clinton wins with wealthy.

Education : Trump wins with all education levels up to and including College grads, Clinton wins big with those that go beyond college level


It looks from this data as though Hilary relies mainly on minorities, younger people that don't really know her history and the wealthy.

Rasmussen Report : Trump vs Clinton April 25th-26th 2016

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Nearly one-in-four voters say they will stay home or vote third party if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the major party presidential candidates.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump and Clinton tied at 38% each. But 16% say they would vote for some other candidate if the presidential election comes down to those two, while six percent (6%) would stay home. Only two percent (2%) are undecided given those options.

Still, the picture appears to be improving for both candidates. In early March, 49% of voters told us they would definitely vote against Trump if he is the presidential nominee of the Republican Party, but nearly as many (42%) said they would definitely vote against Clinton if she is the Democratic Party’s nominee. Trump is more toxic within his own party than Clinton is in hers. If Trump is the Republican nominee, 16% of GOP voters say they would choose a third-party candidate, while five percent (5%) would stay home. Sixty-six percent (66%) would vote for Trump, but 10% would vote for Clinton instead. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, 11% of Democrats would vote third-party, while three percent (3%) would stay home. Seventy-five percent (75%) would support the nominee, but 11% say they would vote for Trump.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, nearly one-third say they would opt out: 21% would choose a candidate other than Trump or Clinton, and 10% would stay home. Trump leads Clinton 38% to 27% among unaffiliated voters.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 25-26, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Democrats now say Clinton is likely to be their party’s nominee. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans see Trump as the likely GOP nominee.

Despite speculation that Trump may have a problem with women voters, women and men are equally likely to say they would stay home or vote third party in the event of a Clinton-Trump race. Men prefer Trump by six points, while women give Clinton the edge by a similar margin. Those under 40 are nearly twice as likely as older voters to say they would vote for some other candidate or stay home if Clinton and Trump are the major party nominees. Clinton leads among younger voters but loses to Trump among those 40 and over. While Clinton has sizable leads over Trump among black and other minority voters, these voters are also more likely than whites to say they will stay home or vote for someone else. Trump leads among white voters.

Following Tuesday’s primaries, it’s moment of truth time for the #Never Trump crowd: Do they want four years of Clinton in the White House or a Republican president they strongly disagree with? Most Republicans – and most voters in general – don’t consider Trump a conservative. Fifty-five percent (55%) of all voters believe Clinton in political terms is a liberal, but among Democrats, 48% view her as a moderate. The surprising level of support for Trump and Bernie Sanders suggests voters in the two major parties are getting more extreme in their thinking than their respective party leaders. A sizable number of voters agree, though Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think their party’s voters and leaders are in sync. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters think it would be good for the United States to have a truly competitive third party, but that’s down from 58% in 2007.

a reply to: UKTruth

How can anyone vote for Hillary?

originally posted by: Sargeras
a reply to: UKTruth

How can anyone vote for Hillary?

Young people and minorities - it casts some light on why democrats are so keen for open borders.

How can anyone vote for either of them?
I'm in that 24% that are neither...

originally posted by: UKTruth
Older and more experienced go for Trump

That kind of makes sense... since they say your IQ drops the older you you get

originally posted by: the owlbear
How can anyone vote for either of them?
I'm in that 24% that are neither...

That 24% number is the most interesting of all because it leaves the door wide open for a 3rd party if it's Trump vs Clinton.
It's where trump and Clinton would battle for votes. Clinton has more headroom because the people who are among the 24% are over indexed towards young people and black people.

originally posted by: Subaeruginosa

originally posted by: UKTruth
Older and more experienced go for Trump

That kind of makes sense... since they say your IQ drops the older you you get

I don't think experience relates to IQ directly (at least not all elements of it), but I see what you were aiming at, haha
Fluid intelligence has been shown to decrease with age, but Crystalized intelligence has been shown to stay the same.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: the owlbear
How can anyone vote for either of them?
I'm in that 24% that are neither...

That 24% number is the most interesting of all because it leaves the door wide open for a 3rd party if it's Trump vs Clinton.
It's where trump and Clinton would battle for votes. Clinton has more headroom because the people who are among the 24% are over indexed towards young people and black people.

Just imagine if Bernie stopped seeking the Democratic nomination and started a run as an independent, which he always was. I can see the reasoning to seek a major party nod in order to get publicity for your platform and then switching when the cards have been stacked against you from the onset and now it has been publicly exposed to be that way.

Sure he'd have to get some people motivated to get signatures to get him on the ballot in all 50 states, but I don't think that would be a problem. And it would be a much closer three way race than when Perot wiggled his ears and ran back in the day.

originally posted by: the owlbear

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: the owlbear
How can anyone vote for either of them?
I'm in that 24% that are neither...

That 24% number is the most interesting of all because it leaves the door wide open for a 3rd party if it's Trump vs Clinton.
It's where trump and Clinton would battle for votes. Clinton has more headroom because the people who are among the 24% are over indexed towards young people and black people.

Just imagine if Bernie stopped seeking the Democratic nomination and started a run as an independent, which he always was. I can see the reasoning to seek a major party nod in order to get publicity for your platform and then switching when the cards have been stacked against you from the onset and now it has been publicly exposed to be that way.

Sure he'd have to get some people motivated to get signatures to get him on the ballot in all 50 states, but I don't think that would be a problem. And it would be a much closer three way race than when Perot wiggled his ears and ran back in the day.

The data from Rasmussen shows that if Bernie did this he would hurt Clinton a lot more than Trump. Clinton relies on the young vote in a match up with Trump.

And he hasn't even started on Hillary yet. It's going to be an interesting election.

originally posted by: Konduit
And he hasn't even started on Hillary yet. It's going to be an interesting election.

I think Hillary's biggest challenge might be that her support is a little less solid than Trump's. Will be interested to watch these demographic break downs over time.

I'm a Bernie supporter but would def swap over to Trump if he's not nominated. I hope the Hillary supporters vet her VP choice well because they may be voting them as president...lol

originally posted by: amicktd
I'm a Bernie supporter but would def swap over to Trump if he's not nominated. I hope the Hillary supporters vet her VP choice well because they may be voting them as president...lol

I think this is a big fear for the DEMs - it's not known just how many Bernie supporters would do as you have said you would do. I expect to see Hillary kiss Bernie's ass repeatedly over then next few weeks. In fact he may even be her VP (if they can get him to agree to it)

a reply to: Sargeras

originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: Sargeras

Hillary made need that machine!

a reply to: UKTruth

Rasmussen is a highly respected polling org.

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: UKTruth

Rasmussen is a highly respected polling org.

It is indeed, though historically with a slight bias to Republicans - I might renew my subscription for the more detailed polls once the nominations are completed and it enters the general election phase.

Rasmussen had polled that Romney and Obama would be neck and neck as well, but it didn't wind up that way.

originally posted by: Subaeruginosa

originally posted by: UKTruth
Older and more experienced go for Trump

That kind of makes sense... since they say your IQ drops the older you you get

Who says ? Where ? Though the older people have a tremendous edge over younger people. It is this thing called wisdom. Only comes with age. Open , young minds can (and are) filled constantly with BS. When , and only when, a person ages are they able to sort the BS out.

Yes, could get ugly for her.

Frankly, Bernie was a pansy in his attacking of her. Trump will lay into her like she's never been laid into before. And Shillary doesn't do well when attacked and has to go off script.