Kenneth Arnold Debunked?

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: UnderKingsPeak
Yeah I have been all over the place with this one.
Maury Island hoax? Fred Crisman, secret agents, communists,
secret churches, the Kennedy assassination .
I hope for all our sakes it was a Horton,
but the writing on the wall says something much more
secret and guarded.
Here's Arnold's report.
project1947.com...

Probably not a Horton, because neither Hortons nor any typical aircraft would fly the way Arnold described, "skipping" or dipping every few seconds:

www.history.com...

Regarding the June 1947 sighting over Mount Rainier, Air Force investigators deemed both Arnold and the prospector to be credible witnesses, but concluded that what they had seen was a mirage, not actual flying ships.

That seems to fit Arnold's description better and while I don't agree with all the conclusions of Air Force investigators, I think their explanation for this event is the most likely.

Unfortunately we can't discount Arnold and the prospector's sighting so easily considering the hundreds of sightings that year with the same odd movements, which corroborate their sighting as factual and not mirage.

Examples here -

www.abovetopsecret.com...

and here -

www.abovetopsecret.com...


Those were the type of craft we were dealing with in 1947, clocked at 15,000 mph by theodolite and radar and capable of instantaneous 90° corners at full speed, as well as instant about faces or instant halts to hover.

All reports of silver saucer craft.

Arnold and the prospector were right after all.

Horten's just don't fit the bill and neither do mirages.

originally posted by: A51Watcher
Unfortunately we can't discount Arnold and the prospector's sighting so easily considering the hundreds of sightings that year with the same odd movements, which corroborate their sighting as factual and not mirage.

There was one other sighting 10 days later that Arnold felt was reliable, and it also sounds like a mirage because it "paced the plane" which is what mirages do, they pace the plane:

Kenneth Arnold UFO sighting

The primary corroborative sighting, however, occurred ten days later (July 4) when a United Airlines crew over Idaho en route to Seattle also spotted five to nine disk-like objects that paced their plane for 10 to 15 minutes before suddenly disappearing.[16] The next day in Seattle, Arnold met with the pilot, Cpt. Emil J. Smith, and copilot and compared sighting details. The main difference in shape was that the United crew thought the objects appeared rough on top. This was one of the few sightings that Arnold felt was reliable, most of the rest he thought were the public seeing other things and letting their imaginations run wild.

So Arnold himself thought that another sighting that sounds like a mirage was similar to his own probable mirage sighting, and Arnold himself dismissed many other sightings as people seeing other things and letting their imaginations run wild.

Arnold's own description, unintentionally, supports the mirage idea when he says things like this:

"Arnold, in pointing to the possibility of these discs being from another world, said, regardless of their origin, they apparently were traveling to some reachable destination. Whoever controlled them, he said, obviously wasn’t trying to hurt anyone. …He said discs were making turns so abruptly in rounding peaks that it would have been impossible for human pilots inside to have survived the pressure.

OK so it was no Horton based on that description, right?

Corroboration should have come from the plane that Arnold used for his size comparison, but the pilots of that plane didn't see anything unusual which supports the mirage idea and not something actually flying which should have been seen by the other plane.

a pilot of a DC-4 some 10 to 15 miles (24 km) north of Arnold en route to Seattle reported seeing nothing unusual. (This was the same DC-4 seen by Arnold and which he used for size comparison.)

That plane would have been much closer to the UFOs than Arnold but due to the way mirages work they would not necessarily see the same mirage as Arnold from their different perspective.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: A51Watcher
Unfortunately we can't discount Arnold and the prospector's sighting so easily considering the hundreds of sightings that year with the same odd movements, which corroborate their sighting as factual and not mirage.

There was one other sighting 10 days later that Arnold felt was reliable, and it also sounds like a mirage because it "paced the plane" which is what mirages do, they pace the plane:

That premise is based on one other sighting. My reply stands with hundreds of other sightings including theodolite and radar.

Mirage?

Does Captain Smith's UAL flight 105 sighting along with his crew, of 9 saucers fit mirage?

Check the links I provided and see how quick the mirage explanation evaporates.





eta:

Did you know that Arnold also considered reflections during his sighting, and slid back the window to eliminate that possibility?

Yah, he did.

a reply to: A51Watcher

Because theodolites and radar are magically immune to mirages?

originally posted by: moebius
a reply to: A51Watcher

Because theodolites and radar are magically immune to mirages?

Mirages flying around with ground and air witnesses and machines detecting and recording them for half the year reported by hundreds would be magic.

And let's not forget the photos.


Temperature inversion and swamp gas mirages are now the plea?




I suggest you examine the links as well to see the rapid mirage evaporation.

Captain Smith's sighting of 9 saucers was also 10 days later so perhaps they also witnessed the same mirage squadron.


July 4 1947 - between Emmett, Idaho and Ontario, Oregon


United Air Lines Captain E.J. Smith calmly and confidently poses with stewardess Marty Morrow the day after their harrowing experience aboard Flight 105 -



Funny thing is neither he or his copilot looked too calm or collected the day before right after they had landed -



...with good reason considering what the crew and passengers had just witnessed -








Portland Oregonian, 7/5 & 7/6
Portland Journal, 7/5
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 7/5
Boise Daily Statesman, 7/5 & 7/6
Chicago Times (AP, Boise), 7/5
Chicago Times, 7/7
Los Angeles Examiner (AP), 7/5
New York Herald-Tribune (AP), 7/6
AP, UP & INS in nearly all papers for 7/5 & 7/6
USAF Files

United Air Lines Flight 105 left Gowan Field, Boise, bound for Seattle with Captain Emil J. Smith at the controls and First Officer Ralph Stevens in the co-pilot's seat. Before they boarded the plane in Boise, someone had asked them if they had seen any flying saucers, and Smith jokingly retorted, "I'll believe them when I see them."

Eight minutes later, both he and Stevens were converted into believers.

As they flew over Emmett, Idaho, approaching a cruising altitude of about 7,000 feet, Stevens reached over to blink his landing lights, believing he had seen a plane ahead at about the same level as the airliner. He called Smith's attention to it. They immediately saw four more, arranged in a "loose formation."

"At first I thought it was a group of light planes returning from some Fourth of July celebration," said Smith, "but then I realized the things were not aircraft, but were flat and circular." Not believing their eyes, they called the stewardess, Miss Marty Morrow, forward. Without telling her what to look for, they directed her attention to the sky ahead of them. Looking out the cockpit window, Miss Morrow exclaimed, "why, there's a formation of those flying discs!"

The objects appeared "huge" and were dark grey, silhouetted against the bright evening sky. The pilots thought they were much larger than ordinary aircraft... The discs were "smooth on the bottom, and rough on top," according to the witnesses.

As soon as Miss Morrow had confirmed their observation, Smith called the control tower at Ontario, Oregon, giving his position and flight direction. He asked the tower operators to step outside to see if they could see anything unusual in the direction from which the plane was approaching. The tower operators saw nothing, which led Smith to believe that the discs were larger and farther away than they originally estimated -- possibly as far away as 30 miles.

The objects appeared to "merge," and then disappeared to the northwest. No sooner had they gone out of sight when another group came into view to the left and ahead of them.

By this time the airliner had reached its cruising altitude of 8,000 feet, and was flying over rugged country toward the Blue Mountains, in eastern Oregon.

In the second group, the discs were arranged in a straight line, three together and the fourth off by itself. "This group seemed to be higher than our flight path," reported the pilot, "and when they did leave, they left fast!"

The nine objects had been in view for at least twelve minutes, seen over a distance of more than 45 miles. Smith was certain that the objects had to be considerably larger than a DC-3 to have been seen for such a great distance.

---


Clearly the mirages had not ' "paced the plane" which is what mirages do' .

originally posted by: AboveBoard
a reply to: A51Watcher

THANK YOU!

Your input in this thread is extremely important, A51. Most appreciated.

Now I see what you mean! LOL

a reply to: A51Watcher

So after reading your posts, with a nod also to: charlyv regarding his question of distance/fuel for such an earthly craft - i.e. where did it fly out of and how does that make sense with fuel capacity, I would, in my own conclusion say:

No. Kenneth Arnold has not been debunked. In fact, I've learned a lot here that only corroborates the idea that he did see something that can still be classified as a UFO or UAP.

Thanks also to SLAYER69 for posing the question and starting the conversation.


- AB

originally posted by: A51Watcher

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: A51Watcher
Unfortunately we can't discount Arnold and the prospector's sighting so easily considering the hundreds of sightings that year with the same odd movements, which corroborate their sighting as factual and not mirage.

There was one other sighting 10 days later that Arnold felt was reliable, and it also sounds like a mirage because it "paced the plane" which is what mirages do, they pace the plane:

That premise is based on one other sighting. My reply stands with hundreds of other sightings including theodolite and radar.

Mirage?

Does Captain Smith's UAL flight 105 sighting along with his crew, of 9 saucers fit mirage?

Check the links I provided and see how quick the mirage explanation evaporates.

eta:

Did you know that Arnold also considered reflections during his sighting, and slid back the window to eliminate that possibility?

Yah, he did.

So you have got "hundreds" of sightings that prove what exactly? That human vision is not infallible?

How does sliding back the window prevent a mirage? Why would a mirage not consist of multiple images?

Can you provide any evidence that this sightings have been real objects?

originally posted by: moebius

originally posted by: A51Watcher

So you have got "hundreds" of sightings that prove what exactly? That human vision is not infallible?

That prove independent corroboration. Your contention that everyone was seeing mirages is actually pretty humorous.

How does sliding back the window prevent a mirage? Why would a mirage not consist of multiple images?

Arbitrageur's contention was reflections not mirages, actually coming from the snow not the canopy.

The prospector on the ground did not have a vantage point to see snow reflections coming from the ground so his corroborative sighting discounts that theory.

Can you provide any evidence that this sightings have been real objects?

Trained military observers were among those reporting sightings, whose observations being correct meant life or death for countless soldiers during the war.

Either everyone was seeing real objects and machines recording them, or they were seeing mirages and recording them.

The likelihood of either possibility has percentages of being the actual case.

The mirage contention has a rather low possibility of being correct.

If not, the military surely would have trotted that out as the explanation to calm the press and public's fears about these sightings.

Trained military observers were among those reporting sightings.

Gen. Shulgen and other Generals concluded that these craft were real and not fictitious or imaginary based on the evidence they reported.

Apparently even they realized that no one would buy the mirage story so they didn't even try.

That realization apparently has not dawned on you yet.

originally posted by: AboveBoard
a reply to: A51Watcher

So after reading your posts, with a nod also to: charlyv regarding his question of distance/fuel for such an earthly craft - i.e. where did it fly out of and how does that make sense with fuel capacity, I would, in my own conclusion say:

No. Kenneth Arnold has not been debunked. In fact, I've learned a lot here that only corroborates the idea that he did see something that can still be classified as a UFO or UAP.

Thanks also to SLAYER69 for posing the question and starting the conversation.

I agree with your points.

This is how we all learn (most of us anyway).

Lot of sharp minds floating possibilities here.

All you can do is run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

originally posted by: A51Watcher
Mirages flying around with ground and air witnesses and machines detecting and recording them for half the year reported by hundreds would be magic.

This is a common misunderstanding that mirages don't fly around, but that is exactly what they can appear to do from the perspective of a pilot when the pilot reports that they "pace the plane", which by the way so do astronomical objects like Venus, though that wasn't involved in the Arnold case, but I hear the same thing about Venus, that it doesn't "fly around". When the pilot reports it's pacing the plane, that's exactly what it appears to do.

I'm not 100% positive Arnold's sighting was a mirage or some type of illusion but I think the likelihood of that is quite high and I've seen nothing in any of your links that suggests otherwise. You keep bringing up other cases, but it's Arnold's own descriptions of the sighting that support the mirage explanation, so I'm basing my interpretation off Arnold's own description while you're referring to other cases.

Mount Rainier: ‘Saucer Magnet’

Arnold’s own statements about his sighting help to bolster the case for just such mirages being responsible. He said the objects appeared to reflect sunlight and that they even seemed like “reflections” (as from his plane window, which he checked and ruled out). Indeed, “the flashing they made in the sun reminded me of the reflection of a great mirror,” he said, and they “looked like they were rocking” (Bequette 1947). The entire effect would have been enhanced by the position of the sun, its light reflecting off the upper surface of the mirages. He stated that, in addition the “saucer-like” objects were “flying very close to the mountain tops,” seemingly “swerved in and out of the high mountain peaks,” and, he came to conclude, were a formation “in the neighborhood of five miles long”—a large squadron indeed!

Most people don't seem to be familiar with mirages so I am not surprised when some people don't understand why that description sounds like a mirage, but that's what it sounds like to me and I've studied mirages, even made a thread about them.

a reply to: A51Watcher

I have the advantage of seeing one for myself (not a mirage!) so its easier to "go there" - it might also make me less rigorous than other folk, too, so it goes both ways, but I most certainly don't think everything is a UFO. It's a balance.

Thanks!

= AB

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I haven't found anything in his words to say that they "paced the plane" as you imply... Here is a visual on the sighting.



Link


From his account on the pages A51 provided, he saw two oddly bright flashes light up the body of his plane, which made him worry that he was too close to another plane. He sees a group of objects he thinks are jets approaching from the north, heading north to south.

He then realizes they are "discs" with the front one being a slightly different shape and darker grey than the polished surfaces of the others.

He turns the plane to the south (turns right) and still sees them... This visual also shows the prospector's sighting and location.

So, ??? I'm not sure where you are getting the "pacing the plane" language from for THIS sighting. I've heard it from other sightings, yes, but not for Arnold's.

ETA: He says that the DC-4, the other plane in the sky was "far to my left and rear." He does not say which direction that plane is headed. Is there a record of that? Is it possible that they were not able to see what he saw, not because it was a mirage, but because they were going in a direction that did not give them good visibility of the sighting?

Anyway. Just trying to sort this out.

Thanks!

- AB

a reply to: Arbitrageur

"The entire effect would have been enhanced by the position of the sun, its light reflecting off the upper surface of the mirages."

Are we talking about Mirage as in the French jet here or mirage as in something that isn't actually there so could in no way reflect the sun ?

a reply to: A51Watcher

Your contention that everyone was seeing mirages is actually pretty humorous.

I dont think that was the contention but the problem is that there is no way to distinguish between a "real" sighting and a mirage or any other misperception.

Trained military observers were among those reporting sightings, whose observations being correct meant life or death for countless soldiers during the war.

There are plenty of cases of friendly fire though. And I really don't understand how you can train someone to correctly identify something when they don't know what the thing they are identifying is. What training are you referring to and what studies have been done to show the effectiveness of such training?

originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
I really don't understand how you can train someone to correctly identify something when they don't know what the thing they are identifying is. What training are you referring to and what studies have been done to show the effectiveness of such training?

If I may..

They are trained observers, They can identify many known aircraft. Obviously when they come into site of something they cannot identify its something worth investigating.

In other words, they are trained well enough to know what it isn't.

originally posted by: SLAYER69

originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
I really don't understand how you can train someone to correctly identify something when they don't know what the thing they are identifying is. What training are you referring to and what studies have been done to show the effectiveness of such training?

If I may..

They are trained observers, They can identify many known aircraft. Obviously when they come into site of something they cannot identify its something worth investigating.

In other words, they are trained well enough to know what it isn't.

I would imagine that pilots are trained to identify other aircraft. I'm not so sure that they would be any better than anyone else at not being fooled by something like a mirage.

a reply to: AboveBoard
Even your diagram suggests it, it describes Arnold's plane traveling in the same direction as the "UFOs", though I can understand some confusing because the drawing initially doesn't appear to show that. However, the point to note is the following text on the diagram: "This is Arnold's initial travel direction. However, he turned the plane to the right...." so what the diagram should show but doesn't is that right turn. After making the right turn Arnold's plane and the UFOs would be going in about the same direction, or pacing the plane.

ETA: He says that the DC-4, the other plane in the sky was "far to my left and rear." He does not say which direction that plane is headed. Is there a record of that? Is it possible that they were not able to see what he saw, not because it was a mirage, but because they were going in a direction that did not give them good visibility of the sighting?

Wikipedia says the DC-4 was headed toward Seattle, and while I haven't tried to find independent confirmation of that it's a likely destination:

Kenneth Arnold UFO sighting

a pilot of a DC-4 some 10 to 15 miles (24 km) north of Arnold en route to Seattle reported seeing nothing unusual. (This was the same DC-4 seen by Arnold and which he used for size comparison.)

So I think based on that heading it would have been within the DC-4 pilots field of view. if you think 10 miles seems far, it's really not that far considering the series of objects described by Arnold would have stretched out over 5 miles.

originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
I would imagine that pilots are trained to identify other aircraft. I'm not so sure that they would be any better than anyone else at not being fooled by something like a mirage.

Exactly, in fact some commercial pilot posted in my mirage thread that he had received absolutely zero training in identifying mirages. It just wasn't a subject that ever came up in his pilot training.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I'm curious as to how the "two bright flashes" fits with your mirage theory...
From Arnold's Book:

(B) "It was during this search and while making a turn of 180 degrees over Mineral,
Washington, at approximately 9,200 ft altitude, that a tremendously bright flash lit up the
surfaces of my aircraft. " (Note that in his book, written about 4 years after the event, he
puts the initial flash during the turn toward the east, whereas in the letter to the Air Force
written several weeks afterward, see below, he indicates that he has completed the turn before
he saw the first flash.)

From Arnold's letter to the Airforce

(L) " I hadn't flown more than two or three minutes on my course when a bright flash of
light reflected on my airplane. It startled me as I thought I was too close to some other
aircraft."

COMMENT: Mt. Baker (altitude, 10,000 ft) is about 130 miles north of Mt. Rainier. Arnold
indicates that they appeared to be "in the vicinity" of Mt. Baker. However, it is more likely
that they were in the approximate direction of Mt. Baker, but much closer than Mt. Baker.
Even if the objects were not as far away as Mt. Baker the flashes must have been very bright to
be visible over a great distance. (If the path of the objects as estimated by Arnold, 170
degrees azimuth, is projected northward from Mt. Rainier, his sighting line to Mt. Baker crosses
the projected path about 50 miles from his plane, which is a more likely distance for his
initial observation of the flashes.) This suggests that the flashes were reflections of
sunlight from mirror-like (specular) surfaces, i.e., a polished metal surfaces. Sunlight
flashes could be visible over distances as great as a hundred miles under clear atmospheric
conditions. Anything less would be invisible over such a distance in the bright sky. Since the
sun was at an elevation of about 60 deg, some portion of the object's surface must have been
momentarily at an angle of about 60 deg. to the horizontal in order to cause a reflected sun ray
to travel nearly horizontally in the atmosphere from the object to Arnold's plane. Appendix 2
contains an analysis of the brightness of reflective objects seen under the daylight conditions
reported by Arnold.

LINK

???

- AB