Was a brokered convention always the plan?

Been hearing a lot of talk lately where people are putting forward Paul Ryan's name to take the nomination if we get a brokered convention. What I want to discuss is assuming this is the plan, how long has it been the plan?

Something many of us realized when Ryan became speaker was that it was a no win position for him. The Republicans were already fracturing and uniting them would be impossible it's why Boehner got out afterall. It was obvious from the outset that Ryan was promised something good to take the role of speaker. At the time the thought was that he was promised a nice corporate job somewhere if he would take speaker, fall on his sword, and end his political career to do what the country needed rather than what the party wanted. What if it was something bigger though?

Now, I'm not suggesting that the plan was always to nominate Ryan to take out Trump because back then he was a punchline if considered at all but back then the narrative still centered around outsiders: Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Paul, and so on while the establishment of Rubio and Bush (especially Bush) could be seen to be floundering even back then. What if the plan was always to use Ryan as a backup, if the establishment wouldn't take the nomination (likely), they would broker the convention and nominate Ryan to the position to take out whatever candidate would challenge the status quo?

Thoughts?

Sounds like a conspiracy !!!

A lot would have to be pre-planned and controlled from the onset.

Like controlling every single voting precinct during primaries and caucuses.

a reply to: Aazadan

A brokered convention is almost assured imo. I don't think it's that remote of a possibility that Bush will make a surprising resurgence.

The neocons aren't to be trifled with.

a reply to: Aazadan


At a guess, I'd say an 'option' rather than 'the' plan. After all, the rules for GOP conventions were developed long before this scenario came to be.

I'm shooting in the dark on this, BUT, the way things are going I'm thinking the chances for a brokered convention is getting less viable rather than more. The reason being the sheer support for both Cruz and Trump indicates a massive disaffection with the GOP Establishment.

Broker it and it almost assures a third party option being initiated with the potential of relegating the Republican Party into the history books.


That 'third party' would likely be a coalition between Trump supporters and Cruz supporters. With or without their Trump or Cruz involved. Perhaps the two of them see the GOP as the bigger adversary than each other.

originally posted by: xuenchen
Sounds like a conspiracy !!!

A lot would have to be pre-planned and controlled from the onset.

Like controlling every single voting precinct during primaries and caucuses.

Oh dear, can they?

Has this been the plan all along?

Interesting, v v interesting.

originally posted by: xuenchen
Sounds like a conspiracy !!!

A lot would have to be pre-planned and controlled from the onset.

Like controlling every single voting precinct during primaries and caucuses.

Not really, because it doesn't matter what anti establishment candidate eventually takes it. No one was expecting Trump obviously. All that matters is that there was a plan in place in case the establishment candidates failed which they likely would.

If they could control voting precincts the establishment candidates would have won their primaries.

Edit: Since the midterms the Republicans haven't even had a real issue to run on. They always knew this would be a tough election and one where an outsider could try and steal control due to the lack of power Republicans have at the moment (not in lack of seats, but in lack of things to fight for). This makes them unappealing, a polarizing outsider can stir the base up and get votes but that also means taking the party in a direction other than what the heads of the party want. Bush was always a joke but had first dibs, Rubio was their guy but he failed, and Kasich has been a useful distraction but nothing more. This has also been a very damaging primary, everyone on the Republican side has a higher unfavorable than favorable plus being a drawn out campaign it's only going to get worse.

Brokering the convention and nominating someone who avoided all the mudslinging of primary season gives them an actual chance with a fresh face.

a reply to: Aazadan
I am coming to think more and more that this has been a planned 'bread and circuses'. The entire thing. NOt that other elections haven't been planned out, but someone went off the deep end this time.

The addition of trump and a few scandals here and there....

I am wondering what they are distracting FROM?

originally posted by: reldra
a reply to: Aazadan
I am coming to think more and more that this has been a planned 'bread and circuses'. The entire thing. NOt that other elections haven't been planned out, but someone went off the deep end this time.

The addition of trump and a few scandals here and there....

I am wondering what they are distracting FROM?

A military coup that took place as soon as Obama became President?

Apparently that could potentially happen in the U.K if Corbyn's party win the next General Election.

a reply to: reldra

They're distracting from the fact they have no real issues to fight over. There is really only one responsible solution to just about all the major issues in government right now and the Democrats have claim to most of those issues. The ones they don't there's still no room to differ in opinion for the Republicans. Without issues the candidates have no choice but to attack each other and with such a large field this campaign has been exceptionally heavy on the attacks.

Think about this primary, we've had candidates use as a selling point that they tried to stabbed their mother, that we should preemptively use nuclear weapons on civilians to prevent them from radicalizing, and that God speaks to them and tells them to kill people.

The only way to even have a chance in the general is to bring in someone new who escaped all this craziness. Ryan has even kept his name out of the news by passing the debt limit increase without a fight and effectively removing the House from any real political decisions for the rest of the year which keeps his profile low until he runs.

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978

originally posted by: reldra
a reply to: Aazadan
I am coming to think more and more that this has been a planned 'bread and circuses'. The entire thing. NOt that other elections haven't been planned out, but someone went off the deep end this time.

The addition of trump and a few scandals here and there....

I am wondering what they are distracting FROM?

A military coup that took place as soon as Obama became President?

Apparently that could potentially happen in the U.K if Corbyn's party win the next General Election.

No, there was no military coup. Over a few years some high ranking military were replaced, mainly due to problems at military facilities.

I plead ignorance on UK politics, sorry.

originally posted by: Aazadan
a reply to: reldra

They're distracting from the fact they have no real issues to fight over. There is really only one responsible solution to just about all the major issues in government right now and the Democrats have claim to most of those issues. The ones they don't there's still no room to differ in opinion for the Republicans. Without issues the candidates have no choice but to attack each other and with such a large field this campaign has been exceptionally heavy on the attacks.

Think about this primary, we've had candidates use as a selling point that they tried to stabbed their mother, that we should preemptively use nuclear weapons on civilians to prevent them from radicalizing, and that God speaks to them and tells them to kill people.

The only way to even have a chance in the general is to bring in someone new who escaped all this craziness. Ryan has even kept his name out of the news by passing the debt limit increase without a fight and effectively removing the House from any real political decisions for the rest of the year which keeps his profile low until he runs.

We know there is a standstill...and most of it is from the Republican side as they will vote against anything Obama wants, even if it is a good thing. So that is not covered up.

a reply to: Aazadan

I definitely think a brokered convention has always been the plan. It's the only way for Trump to split from the GOP without it 'looking' like that was the plan all along. Trump is going to make an independent run and split the conservative vote so badly, democrats will win with a MANDATE.

I do believe this election is meant for the democrats.

The media has been grooming us for for the last 3 1/2 years for another democrat. Compare/Contrast that with 2004-2008 when Bush Jr. was reviled all the time in the press (full disclosure: I abhorred him, too, then and now).

All that hard work is not going to waste on any conservative. That much is clear.

Democrats and republicans want a huge spending plan.

If Republicans plan on holding a "brokered" convention, they might as well forgo all the B.S. in June. Just hand the country over to Hillary Clinton for the next 8 years, and close down Republican headquarters. No more donations, no more respect, no more lavish vacations for Republican big-wigs. Their party will be OVER.

I'll vote for the Pant Suit Queen, or (preferably) Bernie, if they don't nominate the guy that gets the most votes.

originally posted by: reldra

originally posted by: Cobaltic1978

originally posted by: reldra
a reply to: Aazadan
I am coming to think more and more that this has been a planned 'bread and circuses'. The entire thing. NOt that other elections haven't been planned out, but someone went off the deep end this time.

The addition of trump and a few scandals here and there....

I am wondering what they are distracting FROM?

A military coup that took place as soon as Obama became President?

Apparently that could potentially happen in the U.K if Corbyn's party win the next General Election.

No, there was no military coup. Over a few years some high ranking military were replaced, mainly due to problems at military facilities.

I plead ignorance on UK politics, sorry.

That's the trouble wth expressing rhetorical questions.

You end up looking a fool.

a reply to: nwtrucker

Everything is always an option. The primary plan of having an establishment person win it is obviously better because that's who people vote for. That's not what we got though. Do you remember what the Republicans said after their loss in 2012? They said the whole problem was that they let the primary drag on too long and weaken their candidate. They should have settled on Romney right away and that they wouldn't make the mistake of letting a primary damage their general election again.

Everyone thought that meant they would push to turn the primary into a coronation with only one real candidate but when 16 people entered the field it quickly became apparent that wouldn't be happening. Instead I would suggest that the Republicans took the lesson from 2012 that they needed to be able to appoint a candidate like in the old days and set the 2012 rules to reflect that option.

I do think Trump/Cruz could be running mates because they capture very different demographics but unless they share a ticket there's no way they can pull each others voters in a 3rd party. Most of their supporters would still vote Republican or not vote at all than effectively vote for Hillary/Sanders.

a reply to: Aazadan

I do think Trump/Cruz could be running mates because they capture very different demographics but unless they share a ticket there's no way they can pull each others voters in a 3rd party

I guess a Trump/Cruz ticket is possible but the way they are accusing each other now....seems like a remote possibility.

But if they are considering a 3rd party bid; they better do it very soon as it will be to late to even file after the convention. Actually it's already to late....
www.politico.com...

This is going to be a very entertaining election season.....

the likelihood of a brokered convention is at best remote, delegates turning on their state's votes would be political suicide.
you have a situation where true republicans have chosen cruz, and the uneducated brainwashed masses opted for trump.
true republicans, a beast that's afraid at the best of times, are scared that their party is being put through the ringer by an outsider, and they can't blame liberals!
the uneducated, paranoid and afraid, only jumping on the trump bandwagon via the media, yet blaming the media, find a story (via media, irony!) and blow it out of proportion.
beset by a life of defeat, media tells them obama isn't american and hillary can't win because of emails (lol), find their guy actually winning, can find comfort in the paranoia that some evil machiavellian can usurp their man.
here are some other, predicted brokered conventions, that never happened.

a reply to: Aazadan

Ryan would make the race more interesting, but I am not sure about him.

originally posted by: olaru12
a reply to: Aazadan

I do think Trump/Cruz could be running mates because they capture very different demographics but unless they share a ticket there's no way they can pull each others voters in a 3rd party

I guess a Trump/Cruz ticket is possible but the way they are accusing each other now....seems like a remote possibility.

But if they are considering a 3rd party bid; they better do it very soon as it will be to late to even file after the convention. Actually it's already to late....
www.politico.com...

This is going to be a very entertaining election season.....

Good point. It seems the window has closed for Trump or for that matter Sanders to run 3rd party. It's all or nothing for everyone involved then.

a reply to: olaru12


I was thinking the third party option more for the next election cycle...assuming a brokered effort in this convention.

I would be more than game to contribute to it.