Loud Bangs and Bright Lights NE Scotland 29/02/16 - Breaking

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: 3danimator2014

I'm guessing the reply messed up and you meant to reply to me ?

I agree that SOTT is not great as an original source but their graph clearly states they got the information for it from the American Meteor Society, is that a more valid source do you think ?

Sorry. Yes, meant to reply to you.

Yes, i would consider that society a better source but not until I look into it and see if the graph is a direct link from the society's website or something created by SOTT from the data. Conspiracy sites regularly tweak data and stories to sell their brand of doom . Not saying that's what happened here but until I have time to examine the data, ill sit on the fence regarding meteors increasing in frequency.

a reply to: InhaleExhale

No need to go to such great lengths to argue your hypothesis but I appreciate your input and do agree somewhat with your claims, I am just arguing for the other side of the coin in that there MAY be correlation resulting in more events

We both lack the information needed to conclusively say one way or the other really based on the graph alone, my original point was merely that the data used in the graph on the less reputable website was from a reputable website so it's valid data!

a reply to: 3danimator2014

No problem, I did find this link from the site which seems to validate the graph

Fireball Tracking System Analysis

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: InhaleExhale


a reply to: 3danimator2014

No problem, I did find this link from the site which seems to validate the graph

Fireball Tracking System Analysis

Thanks mate. Will look at it later. Lets assume that there IS an increase. Lets discuss what the reasons could be? Could there be a debris field the earth is going through that wasn't around last decade when we didn't have twitter and dash cams etc to film them and instant tweet them?

a reply to: 3danimator2014

Well that analysis concludes talking about this very subject

While the AMS fireball log has many uses and benefits, based on the AMS reports alone it is not possible to make conclusions about an increase or decrease in fireball/bolide events from year to year. However, the data shows that reports submitted to the society have been increasing and a significant increase in large events was specifically noticed in 2012. This warrants further study. A pairing of DOD bolide data with AMS event data would prove useful to the scientific research of meteors striking Earth. In addition, the AMS reports identify the date, time, location and relative size of significant fireball events. This information could be useful in pinpointing events inside the DOD’s data sets. The AMS makes all report data available through our website and encourages the use of our data.

Basically it's too early to say whether it's solely more people being able to report and verify or if there's an actual higher frequency in these events

I'd edge towards a combination of both if I was to hazard a guess as for me having a minor background in statistics you don't get such a high deviation from what was once linear progression without some kind of event causing the deviation, in this case I would hedge a bet towards more frequency combined with more people reporting.

I think the whole dash cam hypothesis is a straw man really also, as you don't need a dash cam in order to see something like this while you're driving. I'd also argue it's not more people watching the skies as evidenced by drivers, their focus is on the road not the sky (I hope otherwise they would be terrible drivers) and you don't need to be watching the sky to notice it light up

However I will admit this is merely opinion and until some conclusive evidence along with research is brought forward it will remain this way

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: 3danimator2014

Well that analysis concludes talking about this very subject

While the AMS fireball log has many uses and benefits, based on the AMS reports alone it is not possible to make conclusions about an increase or decrease in fireball/bolide events from year to year. However, the data shows that reports submitted to the society have been increasing and a significant increase in large events was specifically noticed in 2012. This warrants further study. A pairing of DOD bolide data with AMS event data would prove useful to the scientific research of meteors striking Earth. In addition, the AMS reports identify the date, time, location and relative size of significant fireball events. This information could be useful in pinpointing events inside the DOD’s data sets. The AMS makes all report data available through our website and encourages the use of our data.

Basically it's too early to say whether it's solely more people being able to report and verify or if there's an actual higher frequency in these events

I'd edge towards a combination of both if I was to hazard a guess as for me having a minor background in statistics you don't get such a high deviation from what was once linear progression without some kind of event causing the deviation, in this case I would hedge a bet towards more frequency combined with more people reporting.

I think the whole dash cam hypothesis is a straw man really also, as you don't need a dash cam in order to see something like this while you're driving. I'd also argue it's not more people watching the skies as evidenced by drivers, their focus is on the road not the sky (I hope otherwise they would be terrible drivers) and you don't need to be watching the sky to notice it light up

However I will admit this is merely opinion and until some conclusive evidence along with research is brought forward it will remain this way

I'd agree that's it's most likely a combination of both. Such a high deviation is indeed odd and my physics background (granted 22 years sgo) would make me inclined to investigate that.

As for the straw man, I disagree . People would have seen them, yes, but there would be no video of the meteor and no twitter or Facebook for them to share what they witnessed with people.

Thanks for the links and info btw.

a reply to: 3danimator2014

The reports are based on those submitted specifically to website though, so I don't see the relevance of being able to share any videos of an event to twitter & facebook in relation to the figures reported.

IF the data was gathered from social media also then yeah, I would agree with you but as the data is site specific where a user has specifically reported it on that website then I don't see the relation, apart from potential advertisement of the site through social media in order to raise more awareness for people to know where to report such events/

And no problem on the links they provided some valuable information

Here is another video from a different angle, and taken by a different person of this event. You can clearly see the meteor coming almost straight down with just a very small angle.



www.rt.com...

There certainly have been a lot of these events occurring lately have they not?

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: zeetroyman

Is it me or are these things becoming more frequent recently ?

Been wondering the same thing. I know we get a lot more video, thanks to dashcams, mainly, and cameras in general being more prevalent than '1984', but even just the reports. If they are more frequent, is it an area of space the solar system is in currently, something else disturbing more rocks to move our way, or maybe to do with the current periodic weakening of the magnetic field (whether that would have any effect on letting more through i have no idea.)

I was in Pitlochry on Monday night, just arrived in our hotel room that had massive windows and I seen this! I actually got quite a fright I thought we had been bombed or was an alien invasion lol the entire sky where we were lit up bright white. I didn't hear the noises afterwards though. Was on edge all night felt like something bad was going to happen, first night away from my baby wasn't that chilled out after that

originally posted by: dogstar23
something else disturbing more rocks to move our way

Bugs....
Bugs from Klendathu, the space war has begun!

a reply to: dogstar23

The Earth rotating around the Sun, as well as any debris left behind by comets and other stuff also rotating around the Sun and in other orbits, it really wouldn't surprise me if we were drifting into a relatively more populated area of space.

We do get the meteor showers every year, this might just be a period of the cycle were more of the slightly bigger pieces of those fields, or even another previously unknown one, are found.

Who knows?

originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Discotech

Is it me or are these things becoming more frequent recently ?

I believe it's far more likely that it's a perception due to increased exposure to reporting of like events.

Notice that they're all being captured on dash cams? With the exception of cop cars, how prevalent were dash cams 10 years ago? What kind of mass appeal would these stories have without the videos, particularly outside of the country where the fall occurred? Consider also where most people were getting their news just 20 years ago.

We all had ears 10 years ago. Why were there no reports of loud booming fragmenting meteors back then? There have been several exploding rocks like the Russian one in the past few years and prior to that, it was 100 years ago.

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: 3danimator2014

I'm guessing the reply messed up and you meant to reply to me ?

I agree that SOTT is not great as an original source but their graph clearly states they got the information for it from the American Meteor Society, is that a more valid source do you think ?

They are actually not a bad source for fireballs. They have been doing a lot of tracking of them over recent years, and yes, they use outside sources like AMS.

originally posted by: 3danimator2014

originally posted by: Discotech
a reply to: InhaleExhale


a reply to: 3danimator2014

No problem, I did find this link from the site which seems to validate the graph

Fireball Tracking System Analysis

Thanks mate. Will look at it later. Lets assume that there IS an increase. Lets discuss what the reasons could be? Could there be a debris field the earth is going through that wasn't around last decade when we didn't have twitter and dash cams etc to film them and instant tweet them?

We don't need twitter or dash cams to know when a large rock explodes over your country shaking homes, shattering windows, injuring people on the ground. If a rock exploded over any country years ago, I'm sure the news would have reported it and would have without dash cams and twitter. Over the past 5 years there have been quite a few countries that have had experiences with some exploding fragmenting meteors including Russia, Cuba, Italy, Iran, India, just to name a few.

We shouldn't be arguing about whether there is an increase. We should be debating the possible causes. Three years ago they decided to name February as Fireball month because there always seems to be an increase in that month. At first I thought that was just another way to deflect whether there was an overall increase. I have to admit now that I agree, for some reason it seems that February sees an increase in these much larger exploding fragmenting fireballs.

Looks like it may be ball lightning to me.

a reply to: Discotech

I think is time to put our tinfoils up and prepare to be abducted...i mean visited...i mean invaded....TUN TUN TUNNNNNn!!!!!!!!!!! lol, jokes aside, but yes, I do too also agree that we have seen a little more traffic on space sending signals to us hoomans.....maybe like this we will stop killing one another and start working together like we should be...and they dont want us to....

originally posted by: Rezlooper
We shouldn't be arguing about whether there is an increase. We should be debating the possible causes.

Once again, the increase in reports doesn't equate to the increase in actual number of events.

As for the past times, a sonic boom from a meteor could be confused with a sonic boom from a jet, thunder, or wrath of God (depending on how far back in time you decide to go).

originally posted by: wildespace

originally posted by: Rezlooper
We shouldn't be arguing about whether there is an increase. We should be debating the possible causes.

Once again, the increase in reports doesn't equate to the increase in actual number of events.

As for the past times, a sonic boom from a meteor could be confused with a sonic boom from a jet, thunder, or wrath of God (depending on how far back in time you decide to go).

And that may be happening now. There are not only loud boom reports in the news lately from meteors but many, many unexplained booms happenign all over the place. Could these be from meteors as well?

a reply to: zeetroyman

Wow this thread is like catnip for Scots

Checking in from Edinburgh to say that, sadly, I didn't see or hear anything either.

a reply to: Rezlooper

We don't need twitter or dash cams to know when a large rock explodes over your country shaking homes, shattering windows, injuring people on the ground. If a rock exploded over any country years ago, I'm sure the news would have reported it and would have without dash cams and twitter.

Your Country?

Lets use the U.S. as an example to ask my question,

How populated is every inch of land in the US, Yes there are areas where the population density is high but there are far more areas that are remote.

This goes for many countries, if there is a loud boom or a fireball in a remote area that is above land then there wont be too many witnesses.

Loud booms and fireballs over the vast area of oceans we have would also go unnoticed and unreported.

Yes there is increase in reports but that in no way indicates that there actually is an increase in events.

Like I said earlier in teh thread that in 2005 there could have been more actual events than what there was in 2013 but only 900 or so were reported in 2005 compared to what was reported in 2013, I gave reasons why it might have been reported more and will add that in 2013 there maybe were more events over areas where people witnessed them.

There still could have been more actual events in 2005, most of which could have been in remote areas where there is no or a very low population per square mile or over the oceans.


There might not be increase or decrease and every year this century could have a roughly even amount of fireballs and loud booms.

We dont have the data to claim there is or isn't, and the increase in reports only means that, an increase in reports.