Potential Winter Storm for East Coast later this week.

Models have been in somewhat agreement of having a possibly significant for the East Coast later this week so I thought this would be a good time to start a thread. The Track of the Low could still change but as of right now it looks like the East Coast could get burried. Unfortunately for me it looks like a clipper system might keep significant snow out of Central Ohio.

a reply to: IngyBall

Uh, it is winter. We expect to get snow here in the northeast between Dec and Feb, not 65° temps.

a reply to: IngyBall

Thank you for the heads up!
I check the weather most days and although they have been saying, up until this morning, there would be a 20% or so chance of some wintry precipitation it seems to be concerning that the similarities between this week's weather pattern and the pattern that led to the devastating ice storm that parts of my state experienced in February last year.

Here's two excerpts:

Just a couple of days after two significant winter storms brought widespread ice and snow to Middle Tennessee on February 16 and February 18, forecasters were becoming concerned that another round of freezing rain would affect much of the same areas that saw the heaviest icing - which still had up to 1/2" of ice on trees and powerlines that had not melted.

Areas east of Nashville, especially on the Cumberland Plateau, received the most devastating blow - with power lines, power poles, and trees coming down in many places, producing widespread power outages and blocking highways. In fact, it was considered the "worst natural disaster in the history of Cumberland County", according to Cumberland County Emergency Management. The Volunteer Electric Coop reported 35,000 people without power at the peak of the storm, including all of Fentress County and most of Cumberland County, as well as 700 broken power poles and $9.5 million in damage to their utility system. As of March 7, 2015, a few hundred people still remained without power in Fentress, Cumberland, and Putnam Counties.

Here's a link to just some of the devastation that ice created.
NOAA
It seems, at times, that we catch "the tail end" of some winter storms and get the ice and freezing rain opposed to the fluffy white snow...

I don't care for winter time. I hope everyone stays safe and finds a warm place, if they don't have one already.

I hope you get hit by blizzard after blizzard and we get some nice mild weather here in the UP. It is only fair, we got that crappy weather for many years, it is someone Else's turn.

Just because I have a plow truck this year to go with my tractor with the six and a half foot snowblower on it...doesn't mean I will be upset if I don't use them. Just because I have lots of firewood and fuel oil is cheap doesn't mean I want it to be cold.

a reply to: IngyBall

Meh. It's only supposed to be about 4 inches at the most in my area and I'm in Maryland. I don't know about the upper east coast, but that's a normal snow storm for this time of year.

originally posted by: rickymouse
I hope you get hit by blizzard after blizzard and we get some nice mild weather here in the UP. It is only fair, we got that crappy weather for many years, it is someone Else's turn.

Hey don't throw us your misery, our winters for the last 2 years have been miserable for our region of the country. I've been happy that it's taken longer then the last two years to get cold out this year.

a reply to: IngyBall

guess we shall see - I'm in the southern New Hampshire region and HOPE it is a huge one so I can work from home one day. Sorry to anyone who is hoping for the opposite

a reply to: IngyBall

We had some mild weather for November and December. Now it's pay back time. Hopefully, the snowfall starts tapering off by the end of February. Overall, this winter hasn't been that bad. I've experienced much worse.

a reply to: IngyBall

Do you have a visual/data link since you are attempting a severe weather related OP?

a reply to: antar

I know that you didn't ask me but, I'll try to help the other member out...it doesn't look like they post often so they may not "get the message" to respond to your question timely

One factor in play is the fact that the disturbance is still in an area that is lacking the kind of surface and upper-air weather data that are found over land areas for the computer models to ingest. Once the system reaches the West Coast later Tuesday it will finally be in an area where more of that data is available for computer models to use. This in turn may lead to a convergence of model scenarios towards a consensus, meaning, a "most likely" forecast.

I think it's too soon to tell what may or may not happen with this particular system.

When this occurs, it will give forecasters a much better handle on the details of the exact track and timing of the low pressure system that we expect to move from the southern states to off the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast coasts late this week. Also in play is the amount of cold air available for the storm to tap into along its path; that factor will determine which locations see snow, a mixture of rain and snow, or plain rain.

It seems that after tomorrow they, possibly, will have enough information to try to predict reasonably a scenario.
Here's a weather.com link discussing it.
WEATHER.COM

a reply to: antar

I don't have much since a lot of the models are for subscriptions, Though if you search the net hard enough you can find snowfall outputs from the European model. I can provide links from the 12z GFS and Canadian models, though they should be taken with a grain of salt as snowfall totals do not come from the models themselves but from an algorithm from the website that host the models. GFS Snow through Sunday

CMC Snow through Sunday


I will say that the latest European run has 30+ inches of snow for parts of the mid atlantic.

originally posted by: IngyBall
Models have been in somewhat agreement of having a possibly significant for the East Coast later this week so I thought this would be a good time to start a thread. The Track of the Low could still change but as of right now it looks like the East Coast could get burried. Unfortunately for me it looks like a clipper system might keep significant snow out of Central Ohio.

Thanks for the heads up. Even if it says east Coast, Buffalo usually gets a share, I think just because, lol. We had a mild November and December, but right now it's snowmageddon here already. I have to pick and choose when to call the plow guy. Just had it plowed, and have to climb out of my house again lol.

a reply to: IngyBall

I'm ready for a big storm! lol

I hope we get the 2 - 3 feet they are forecasting for the DC area.

Let it snow, let it snow let it snow!

I can hope....we will likely only end up getting 2-3 inches...that's how it goes around here. lol

a reply to: MagesticEsoteric

I'm not from the DC Area, but what I'm collecting from posters on other forums is that in past storms where snowfall prediction busted rain ended up mixing with snow for certain durations of time. This seems to be the biggest potential for bust with a smaller potential of the low moving in a different path.

a reply to: IngyBall

Nooo! Hopefully El Nino reminds the jet stream who's boss this year and sends it back up closer to the border. We need cold and snow but no more bad storms. It's going to take 20 years to pay off last winter's damage$.

a reply to: IngyBall

I've learned from living here to never get too excited over a big snow storm....sadly, I learned the hard way. I would get super excited for tons of snow only for it to turn to rain or nothing at all.

Strange winter weather area for sure. I'm actually in Northern VA but, DC is so close, it's just easier to say DC.

You would be surprised at how many people do not realize how close VA is to DC. lol!

originally posted by: UnBreakable
a reply to: IngyBall

Uh, it is winter. We expect to get snow here in the northeast between Dec and Feb, not 65° temps.

Yeah. I know it it's not politically correct and it offends deniers to talk about weather but too bad.

#weatherspeechisfreespeech

a reply to: Krazysh0t

I was up in maryland area for those back to back blizards

I had a choice to work from home in florida or have the company set me up there for 3 months with the wife and 2 year old in a hotel.

I chose to go up there with the family as i thought it would be fun to experience a new city on someone else dime. Especiall since i had been traveling to the area for the last 5 years and the weather was never that bad.

Boy was i wrong . A wife and a 2 year old locked up in a hotel for 3 months because of the blizzards and cold was not fun.

Till this day she doesnt believe me that weather was not typical for md.

Now when i go back there i cant talk her into going back in the winter.

a reply to: interupt42

Lol. That's a pretty funny story. I'm sorry that happened, but just thinking about those 2 winters... Seriously though, they were flukes.

The Jet stream further south increases the chance of a deep low bombing somewhere off the Carolinas.
Will there be an upper level blocking pattern that keeps it from just continuing out to sea?
Should know a lot more by Thursday.