Earthquakes Are Escalating Off Cuba Coast- Could Be Foreshocks

Four earthquakes have occurred within a short time off the Cuban southern coast- a 4.8, 4.6, 5.1, 5.1- in that order:


These are occurring in an escalating fashion. When the second 4.6 hit, I thought "That's pretty close in magnitude to the first one, and could be foreshocks." Well it turned out they were- foreshocks to the next 5.1 which occurred within hours.

Well now a second 5.1 has hit in the same area. And with that being identical in magnitude to the first 5.1, now I am concerned for the same reason that these all could be foreshocks to a bigger one.



A large quake in that area could have devastating consequences for much of the Caribbean, especially if a tsunami is involved. And while the island of Cuba might shield the western side of a tsunami from Florida, the wave would still likely go around the eastern side and nail the Bahamas and Miami- as well as Haiti and Jamaica too.

Therefore a watch alert is in order here, considering how these quakes are manifesting, with a tendency to escalate and breaking the 1.5 magnitude separation statistic that usually occurs between main shock and largest aftershock. These quakes are not operating under those rules- and this could mean trouble.

When you speak I listen. Thanks for sharing, I have family down there.

I'm not very educated on the matter, but how often do tsunami's form from quakes in this area and size?

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Thanks for your always-amazing insight and info that you bring. How long of a period have these been happening?

You're welcome. To answer both your questions:

Tsunamis are rare in the Caribbean, but not unheard of. In fact, I dare say that the Caribbean is due. Overdue even.

Bonez: These quakes have all occurred within the last day, on 1/17/2016.

Of particular note is how shallow depth these are- although the 5.1's are set at a default depth of 10 km until further analysis is done. It does not look good.

I was actually going to create a thread about this, but you beat me to it,

i was checking out RSOE

and noticed the amount of mini quakes not only in Cube but across the globe in the last 24 hours,



something tells me, something BIG is coming......

keep safe

There are several historical reports of tsunamis generated within the Caribbean region. Most of these resulted from seismic activity in the northwestern portion of the Caribbean, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Of these Caribbean events there are two which stand out as particularly destructive, the Virgin Island tsunami of 1867, and 1918 Puerto Rico tsunami.

www.usc.edu...

They have happened, but it appears the last one was in 1918, and from a different epicenter location. And THAT is what makes this current epicenter location area even more frightening. When a large quake has not occurred for hundreds or even thousands of years along a fault it means that stresses have built up to enormous levels.

a reply to: TrueAmerican


and looking at where the smaller quakes are hitting it seems there would be little to no warning time for the surrounding islands. No doubt lower lying, "not built for tsunami protection" population centers

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I wondered if anyone was watching?

There's been good sized activity in the last week, coming at the same time,
in such unrelated places, that it has been making me take notice too.

France, Italy, China, Iceland/Reykjanes Ridge...
Now Cuba, Costa Rica, Argentina, Chili, Columbia, Nicaragua, Bolivia...
definitely pressure from somewhere!
And now West Virginia, north of Cuba.
And all that activity not long ago,
was it Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands?

I'm leaving soon for a few hours, will be somewhere with spotty internet.
My luck, I'll miss everything!
Hopefully it will be something interesting, but not dangerous!

WOQ

USGS has seismometers in Guantanamo Bay and Jamaica. Got the stations, got the seismic data from all those quakes, and now have them live up on my rig. And now I know I have a measuring stick so to speak, as I can see what the last ones registered. So if a bigger one happens, I'll be able to report on it within minutes. And here's a bit of interesting news not reported anywhere else, not even at USGS. There have been at least 5 small aftershocks in the area, and one occurring right now as I type this which I can see coming in live on my rig. That means the fault is still active, and anything goes.

We be watching. And wasobservingquietly- if I am breathing, I am watching.

There was a 3.0 quake 64 miles away from Washington DC. Chance this could be related?

originally posted by: Kuroodo
There was a 3.0 quake 64 miles away from Washington DC. Chance this could be related?

No. And please let me take this opportunity to make a blanket statement, covering many, many comments I see around the forums:

Earthquakes are very specific to location. PLEASE peoples, get a grip, and please don't try to lump sum all seismic activity up into "worldwide seismicity is increasing, and we are all gonna die".

Not trying to be rude or anything, but with earthquakes we have to stay specific to the location they are occurring, and NOT try to lump sum it all into crazy doom porn. That seems to be a tendency around here and other forums, and honestly it is just...well... wrong. Sorry.

Could a tsunami form in the short distance between Jamaica and Cuba? Or is that distance too short ? I don't know just asking....also, i am wondering if the quakes have any relation to Hurricane Alex that just passed ? I seem to recall a thread on here regarding a correlation of hurricanes and earth quakes ? Any thoughts on that ? ...and of course I am in the Florida keys right now so now nervous as hell ! Lol ....

Thank you for all the information.

S&F

originally posted by: Meldionne1
Could a tsunami form in the short distance between Jamaica and Cuba? Or is that distance too short ? I don't know just asking....also, i am wondering if the quakes have any relation to Hurricane Alex that just passed ? I seem to recall a thread on here regarding a correlation of hurricanes and earth quakes ? Any thoughts on that ? ...and of course I am in the Florida keys right now so now nervous as hell ! Lol ....

Yes, a tsunami could form anywhere there is a large enough quake (usually over 8.0) to displace the seabed and create displacement in the water above it. No relation to Alex. And the Florida Keys would not be a good location to be right about now, no. While you would not likely bear the full brunt of the wave, it could still wreak havoc on your coast. Southern Cuba though would have no time to react. The fault is so close to their southern coast, the tsunami would be there, on shore, literally within 10 minutes or less. And if the quake was on the closer side to shore, the wave could be there in under 5 minutes. That's nuts. And dangerous.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican

originally posted by: Meldionne1
Could a tsunami form in the short distance between Jamaica and Cuba? Or is that distance too short ? I don't know just asking....also, i am wondering if the quakes have any relation to Hurricane Alex that just passed ? I seem to recall a thread on here regarding a correlation of hurricanes and earth quakes ? Any thoughts on that ? ...and of course I am in the Florida keys right now so now nervous as hell ! Lol ....

Yes, a tsunami could form anywhere there is a large enough quake (usually over 8.0) to displace the seabed and create displacement in the water above it. No relation to Alex. And the Florida Keys would not be a good location to be right about now, no. While you would not likely bear the full brunt of the wave, it could still wreak havoc on your coast. Southern Cuba though would have no time to react. The fault is so close to their southern coast, the tsunami would be there, on shore, literally within 10 minutes or less. And if the quake was on the closer side to shore, the wave could be there in under 5 minutes. That's nuts. And dangerous.

Oh great .....and....thanks for the info though. So much for living in Paradise ! LoL !

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Seismic Hazard Maps for Cuba and Surrounding Areas.

Interesting post. You may already have this, but I noticed it and thought it might be helpful.

The seismicity in the vicinity of Cuba (Fig. 1b) clearly indicates the capability of theboundary between the North American and Caribbean plates to produce large events: from the CSC, which generates normal faulting earthquakes, to the OFZ and SFZ, where very large transpressive and strike-slip earthquakes occur. The southern edge of the plate boundary zone, south of the OFZ, is defined by the left-lateral strike-slip WFZ, where some large events have been reported near the city of Kingston.

users.ictp.it...

So as we can see from previous seismicity there, this exact area where these quakes are occurring has been there done that with several over 7.0. So the precedent is there for a bad one.

Excuse my lack of knowledge, but, aren't all seismic events related? If the earth is in fact made up of plates that form a jigsaw puzzle of sorts , wouldn't moving some pieces in one area effect others

originally posted by: PlatypusHerd
Excuse my lack of knowledge, but, aren't all seismic events related? If the earth is in fact made up of plates that form a jigsaw puzzle of sorts , wouldn't moving some pieces in one area effect others

They are only related if one occurs after the other within a limited distance from it, and proportional to the magnitude of the first one. In other words, the greater the magnitude of the first event, then the farther the epicenters of subsequent quakes can be, and still be considered related. For example, a very large area of several hundred kilometers was affected by aftershocks in Japan from the 9.0 back in 2011. Same happens in Chile with big quakes. Large areas of aftershocks.

But outside of those general rules, I would have to disagree that all seismic events are related. Most have nothing to do with each other, and especially if separated by over 500 km.