An Economy Contradicting Itself

Every member of the motoring public knows that the fuel prices crashed, and many can reason that the bottom still doesn't yet appear in sight. Meanwhile, prices of other products have risen sharply. Is this deflation, or is this inflation? One could argue that considering the price of fuel is down and the price of goods up, rising federal fuel surcharges, responding to the drop in price at the pump, are crippling the transportation industry, and that cost of doing business is being carried over to the consumer. However, for those familiar with such things, it's clear that it must be more than simply the added cost of transportation. So then, what's happening?

a reply to: Navarro

well remember the big ol pitch for the increase in food prices was the increase in fuel prices. Funny how they do not correspond though when one is on the down trend..

My personal theory, it is a window the establishment is providing to the public to take advantage of, for something sinister or catastrophic may be on the horizon.

Commodities outside of food are dropping, the election cycle is acting like they dont really care who runs for what, and suddenly some of our more controversial allies who we traditionally shy away from criticizing are starting to receive some tough love. Like the world went into opposite mode in the last year or two, and someone knows what it is leading to. Just what we cant quite put our fingers on.

a reply to: Navarro

Short answer... deflation, but you won't hear about it on the news.

The tried-and-true economic indicators no longer measure real life, if they ever did.

But those are the ones the newsies have been trained to report on... or paid to report on... or something. And as long as the numbers sound reasonable, no need to panic, right?

efing milk is down in price, but butter is going up, butter is made from milk, why ain't butter going down, guess 'cause somebody got to pay for the algae in Lake Erie that is 'caused by cow excrement running off into Lake Erie.
There are some municipalities that get their water from Lake Erie, when the algae blooms water is toxic and can't even be boiled.

a reply to: Navarro

A lot of the cost in food prices can be attributed to the drought out west, particularly any fruits and vegetables grown in California. But food prices rarely decrease, even if the market would allow it.

I'm beginning to think gas has bottomed out though, despite then saying it'll go lower. The two stations I frequent have been at about $1.72 +/-$0.05 for the last couple weeks.

a reply to: cmdrkeenkid I seen web sites say gas is going to hit 1USD per gallon, at the pump yea

a reply to: AmericanRealist

I think, more prominently, that if the rise in price of goods is a result of strife in the logistics industries, then all goods should be suffering the same affliction. Spot prices for refridgetated transport is on the rise while dry freight is in decline, but again the increase in refrigerated transport doesn't correspond with the the rise in cost of meat for instance.

Imports are down, while warehouse inventory is up. I understand China's practically begging our businesses to order something from them, but our retailers seem to tend to have neither the storage capacity nor the sales to justify it. This makes me wonder if China's recent devaluation of their currency is related to a drop in export caused by our flagging economy.

a reply to: CantStandIt

The general consensus lately seems to be in favor of deflation. I'm no economist, but I can't help but feel that neither "inflation" nor "deflation" adequately describes the situation, particularly given the variance in price changes. I can understand that an event could create instability in prices until the markets stabilize from the onslaught of speculation, but I cant grasp prices for one thing rocketing in one direction, and then in another for another.

Seems unreasonable, as though a result of manipulation. It almost seems as though the markets already did collapse in a way, resulting in practically arbitrary, artificial prices. A result of suppliers not competing based on necessarily profit margins, but sooner through speculating on what their competitors are speculating.

If stored properly, how long is gas good for?

What if you had a proper storage tank and bought a ton of this cheap gas...you might save a bunch of money when gas prices rose again?

I bet you need a special permit to dig a put for a below ground storage tank though, the risk of soil contamination would be high if you didn't know what you were doing...

a reply to: Navarro

I read recently that Catepiller's sales, world wide, have have fallen 37% over 31 consecutive months.

Why is this important, because Caterpiller is the essence of manufacturing which is where real, actual wealth is generated in any economy.

From what I have been reading over the last couple of years is that reports of increases in economic activity in the US are mostly derived from the financial services industry, eg banking and share trading.

I also read in the Ebook Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars that sometimes The Powers That Should Not Be give the economy a shock every once in a while. A shock can take the form of period of inflation. Why do they give economy's a period of inflation, because they want to check the impact it has. Part of the reason is also that it destroys the value of savings and causes them to be used up. In most cases, people then have to start saving all over again.

How do they get inflation to rise rapidly? well; banks use our signature to create money out of thin air by creating an account and placing credit in that account. The important thing being that Banks generate 90-95% of the 'money' in circulation and there are no limits on the amount of money' banks can create, e.g. the so called 'subprime market' in the US in 2008.

a reply to: raypsi13
Like selling a gold watch for less than the spot price for the gold it contains. It doesn't make sense, and for precisely this reason neither does our economy, in my opinion. There's always the saying, "everything's worth what someone else will pay for it," but if that were true a hamburger at McDonalds would easily be priced at $20, and a pack of Raman Noodles at $5. Everybody's gotta eat, and most could afford such prices. Still, McDonalds couldn't sell that burger at even $20 if the price of the meat is $25. Or, at least, it seemingly shouldn't be able to.

a reply to: cmdrkeenkid
Fuel prices seem to now correspond with the local prices prior to the crash. That is, the price in each region now generally appears to be the same percentage cheaper compared to their pre-crash prices. So, maybe it's leveled off. Still observing some slight downward trend. People I've spoken to in the oil industry tell me they either expect it to continue to crash, or for demand to rise sharply followed by production and price. Depending on the individual. None of them seem to anticipate stability at this point.

a reply to: Azureblue
For what reason would the oligarchy be inclined to destroy savings? I don't understand why it would benefit them to replace a content middle class with a disgruntled lower class. It seems foolish. But, so too does Caterpillars recent strategy to combat a decline in sales by announcing that it will no longer sell only its CAT engines. They're forcing customers to buy the whole thing or nothing from them at all. I think they'll end up with far fewer customers this way than they think. Personally, I wouldn't choose to alienate my customer base at a time when I'm being out competed. If your future's going to be in engines, then produce the best damn engines in the market. Don't just risk fading into irrelevance on a gamble.

a reply to: MystikMushroom

There doesn't seem to be a definitive answer to your question, but this seems to explain it best,

Cycling the environment from hot and humid to cool and dry will allow moisture in, and vapors out. Over time, the lightest components will evaporate off and the average molecular weight will get heavier. This will make the fuel harder to ignite in your engine, and will cause gum and gunk to leave solution as solids.

Source

originally posted by: Navarro
a reply to: Azureblue
For what reason would the oligarchy be inclined to destroy savings? I don't understand why it would benefit them to replace a content middle class with a disgruntled lower class. It seems foolish.

From memory; it seems they do things like that to test different ideas or to check reactions to certain stimulis

Also about testing their own economic models. Seems they have been able to express economic models in mathematical ways as in formulas. There are lots of these in the book but I found that part of it way over my head.

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
If stored properly, how long is gas good for?

What if you had a proper storage tank and bought a ton of this cheap gas...you might save a bunch of money when gas prices rose again?

I bet you need a special permit to dig a put for a below ground storage tank though, the risk of soil contamination would be high if you didn't know what you were doing...

Ah ha, an oil speculator!



Seriously though, this is all that entrepreneurs attempt to do, correctly anticipate price changes. They aren't always correct but, when they are they can use that advantage to produce profit while undercutting those who failed to risk their capital on that particular commodity price projection.

These are all good questions. The main confusion regarding inflation/deflation is that they do not have equal simultaneous effects on the prices of goods and services across the economy. Some change faster than others and some do not change depending on the actions of consumers and entrepreneurs who want to acquire component materials for production.

Of course, the extensive interference by governments cannot make markets stable but, they can make them unstable and obfuscate informed investment producing malinvestment which consumes capital which makes everyone worse off.

a reply to: Azureblue
If their reasoning was totally bereft of all worry of a threat arising from the chaffing of the middle class, then their confidence must be absolute, or at very least near it. If so, then that would appear to make arrogance their primary observable weakness, which isn't much of a weakness at all. That doesn't bode well for the future of humanity, but I don't think many of us are under the illusion that our position is a strong one, anyhow.

How about we have a food strike for a whole week. Would something like that cause food prices to go down ?
Groceries are outrageously priced. I can't remember a time when I struggled so hard just to be sure I could eat and put food on the table week after week. But of course I have two little ones now... not just myself so I have more mouths to feed.
Still... hoping for a break in prices.

leolady

originally posted by: leolady

How about we have a food strike for a whole week.

Would something like that cause food prices to go down ?
Groceries are outrageously priced. I can't remember a time when I struggled so hard just to be sure I could eat and put food on the table week after week. But of course I have two little ones now... not just myself so I have more mouths to feed.
Still... hoping for a break in prices.

leolady

Most likely it is because government pays producers not to produce or otherwise discourages market competition to keep commodity prices high. High property taxes and many other interventionist policies contribute as well.

a reply to: Navarro

I can't imagine why dropping fuel costs would cripple the transportation industry. I worked for a freight brokerage and the costs to transport freight were always tied to the cost of fuel. When diesel is up it costs more to move trucks and vice versa.

I do believe some prices are being kept up because the market will bear it, while others, especially commodities are going down. A gallon of milk is down to $1.57 now, for example. Perhaps a trickle down effect? Plus, people have very little disposable income. When it's not all being used for gas, they can finally buy other things. Perhaps demand for goods is up?