The Global Economy May Be Much Worse Than You Think

originally posted by: MyHappyDogShiner
a reply to: pl3bscheese

When the events that generate the data occur simultaneously, the data which is offset by a certain time period in most cases.

Did you write that correctly? Pretty sure I know what you were after anyhoo. There is a dislocation from the abstract systems and the concrete. This dislocation causes exacerbated fluctuations until a kind of infinity that would be perceived as a simultaneous downfall towards a zero point. Is that about right?

It will probably be environmental in nature where production of food and energy are interrupted or slowed, which will cause those illogical humans to have themselves another one of those war things.

Well, that is a common fear, but so far our increased communication and transportation provided by jacking with the environment has afforded more than not. We are also anticipating future problems and being quite proactive just in case for most of the perceived dystopian causing scenarios. Guess we'll have to wait and see! I personally am of the opinion we'll be off the planet by the time we muck up the planet too much.

Wars always fix everything. After people get tire of losing loved one's and demand an end to it, they completely forget what it was that preceded it and jump right into the same crap as before.

Well wars don't much help anymore, and it seems the key players are aware of this for the most part. I do agree that people in general need to sense and experience things first hand in order to hold the value dear and true. Generational dynamics is a curiosity of mine.

Governments and business just love wars.
People forget.

Puppet masters run these entities, and are aware that anything but local or regional wars make no sense for their interests. The new means of acquiring increased resources is through exploration and innovation, not destruction.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

Your take on what I tried to say is pretty much correct, but the environmental issue will more than likely be from something more gradual than something like global warming and be found to be something like accumulation of pollution generated by human activity in the biosphere, which has an unpredictability because these things have only recently been considered and are not seriously enough addressed.

a reply to: anonentity

With any luck the people that have collected all the money, might just realise that they have a poisoned chalice

Well they in my view they have positioned themselves to ride out another depression (it will be massive compared to the 1920s) When the chesspieces are in place they will crash the stockmarket, buying up everything for cents in the dollar. There will then be a war to get the economy going again, or a few nukes to depopulate us

a reply to: TheConstruKctionofLight

And lets not forget the Elephant in the room no one is talking about; Derivatives

kingworldnews.com...

$1.5 Quadrillion Derivatives Bomb And The Great Financial Disaster

How can a junior employee in a major bank pay the incredible sum of $6B without any controls whatsoever? This is a world gone mad. Governments print trillions, banks issue derivatives in the quadrillions and banks transact in hundreds of billions every week. The zeros no longer mean anything and have no value. This is all routine stuff for the people dealing in these sums and no one has a clue about the risk or the real exposure. Remember that back in 1995 Barings Bank collapsed in London after a loss of £827 million ($1.3B). The fall of Baring almost brought all the banks down in London. The money printing and the credit creation 20 years later have created a financial system which is out of control, heavily overleveraged and desperately undercapitalised

It`s good news week!



www.superstation95.com...



"Historic First: North Atlantic EMPTY of Cargo Ships in-transit - ALL anchored along coasts; none moving "


This seems ominous...

a reply to: Sunwolf

I've got a bad feeling about this. Looks like it will be an interesting week on Wall Street.

Speaking of shipping, if things keep getting worse between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then Iran could very well close the Strait of Hormuz.

That will be nothing short of catastrophic.

China is dumping all kinds of inventory at close to cost of shipping. I've been buying good quality New Old Stock items at 90% off. Typically 2011 model year stuff that wasn't advertised and didn't sell. The Chinese are getting frustrated with their fickle customer base, stuff gets returned that the end user just wasn't savvy enough to use/install etc etc. Even well designed stuff sometimes doesn't get assembled correctly and knocking around in warehouses for 5 years doesn't help. I've got in the habit of just rebuilding stuff I buy from China at liquidation.

The US economy looks fairly resilient, the current housing recovery has been helping. Higher interest rates do effect 30 year mortgages big time so I don't know what the Fed is thinking. The Eurozone raised their refi rate about a half a point back in 2011 then when that stalled their economy they dropped it all the way down to essentially zero? The US could do the same this summer if the scheduled March rate hike kills the stock market.

We all saw how the stock market was able to climb during the QE years even with horrible economic news and poor fundamentals. Hopefully market psychology will cause bullish investors to dollar cost average, rather than sell stocks now that the economic news is better. Might even be a buy opportunity once inflation gets back above 2%.

Recap: Christmas food and gifts, Church tithing, Vacation time trips, the sell off stocks that are duds by the end of the year ( People buy them back after Jan 1.), the pay off credit cards, property taxes on houses and cars due at end of year, and pay kids college bills for next semester ( such as apartment, tuition, books, food). People are paying and paying right now on their bills. December is a cash drain month.
Also, let's not forget all the people who are sick and going to the doctors with the latest disease cold floating around. No one shops when sick. I wouldn't worry about this idea until after tax refunds are paid out.... and people were not spending it.

The decrepitude continues....

Australia ASX All Ordinaries -1.94%
Shanghai SE Composite -2.76%
Hang Seng Hong Kong -2.84%

Anybody that doesn't realize the world economy is horrible is just not paying attention, is in denial or stupid.

Virtually every nation has debt over 100 percent of gdp. Every large bank is so leveraged a small loss can bring the whole world banking system down.

China is imploding now, as they are the biggest irrational debtors, and everyone is now finally realizing all the economic data the government was reporting was fraudulent. Heck they even admitted to it partially last week.

Over half the us population does not have 1 month of savings. The unemployment rate reported is meaningless when they simply don't count 1/3 of the population because they claim they don't want work.

Many universities say half yes half of today's jobs will cease to exist within twenty years due
to the rise of robots and automation.

Things are going to change drastically very soon. Hopefully humankind can get through this transition without killing significant numbers of ourselves, but I have to admit I'm not real optomistic.

a reply to: proximo

Virtually every nation, except the dozens that aren't even close... yea, stupid... LOL!

Official Update: I have seen more in the news since I posted this topic.

In line with the Baltic Dry Index being down, Newsmax published an article about the U.S. Rail Shipments being down.

The dark clouds just continue to gather on the nation’s economic horizon.

This time, rail traffic has plunged to recessionary levels, according to Wolf Street.com’s Wolf Richter.

U.S. railroad cargo in 2015 dropped the most in six years, and 2016 isn’t expected to be any better.

"Transportation is a measure of how well the real economy is clicking," Richter wrote.

www.newsmax.com...

Also, today I saw on CNBC that a top RBS analyst is predicting turbulent times for the markets in 2016.

"Sell everything."

That harrowing advice is from The Royal Bank of Scotland, which has warned of a "cataclysmic year" ahead for markets and advised clients to head for the exit. Do not wait. Do not pass go.

"Sell everything except high quality bonds," warned Andrew Roberts in a note this week.

He said the bank's red flags for 2016 -- falling oil, volatility in China, shrinking world trade, rising debt, weak corporate loans and deflation -- had all been seen in just the first week of trading.

"We think investors should be afraid," he said.

money.cnn.com...

hi there!!!

well i am late to enter in to these but i must say that the economy of world is being hampered very badly mainly because of the bearish nature of the stock market for 2015 and even we have enter the 2016 the scenario remains the same and the forecast for 2016 seems to be another worry for all the traders and investors.Economy has been hampered mainly because of the prices of commodities going down.Like the Oil prices are on a all time low and if the situation continues there would come a time when there would be no job left for the people,the same goes with the gold prices and all the major stocks.

a reply to: CheatingSuccubus

By nominal and inflation-adjusted rates, oil is not at an all time low. I guess the people repeating this are easily sucked into false news stories.

It may be worse than we think but it's providing those of us with a little cash and patience to make some decent buys when the lemmings hit the bottom of the cliff.

it'll certainly be interesting to see how this plays out..

last Friday, my sibling and myself were helping move our mother into her new apartment. My sibling is a Certified Financial Planner for Morgan Stanley, and during our lunch afterward I could tell he was completely stressed out.

I brought it up (hesitantly), asking "markets not doing so well, huh?"

Boy was that opening a can of worms...

and it sure looks like things have gotten even worse since then

I hope people aren't losing their hard-earned cash from these events. At the very least, there will be some great opportunities with everything tanking right now, as the user Cynic just mentioned.

Gotta be smart people - don't get depressed about the doom and gloom. It can be opportunistic be safe all

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran

The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

"Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said.

"It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.