How low will OIL Go ?

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
a reply to: pl3bscheese

cool....the refineries have to shut down to re-vamp......so I say we're at the low....it probably won't go much lower.....not to 25 dollars....so 40 dollar oil by March....

I do not think you are not counting the huge reduction in China, and the political aspects of this to bring Russia to its knees.

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
a reply to: pl3bscheese

cool....the refineries have to shut down to re-vamp......so I say we're at the low....it probably won't go much lower.....not to 25 dollars....so 40 dollar oil by March....

I've heard $20 usd is possible. I've also heard 2016 is expected to be worse than last year

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
a reply to: pl3bscheese

cool....the refineries have to shut down to re-vamp......so I say we're at the low....it probably won't go much lower.....not to 25 dollars....so 40 dollar oil by March....

I do not think you are not counting the huge reduction in China, and the political aspects of this to bring Russia to its knees.

I wish they'd stop trying to kill off Russia. It's hurting Canada too....I don't think they care though....we're watching our Cdn dollar drop along with the oil price

originally posted by: jellyrev
What happened is countries in the ME have put themselves in a hard place. When oil revenues pay for all the social programs in a country and a countries financial health relies on this product almost exclusively something happens.

What happens is that countries instead of cutting oil production have to increase production in order to keep their countries finances afloat. IF they stop pumping and cut services to balance finances mass unrest will result.

I think you are on to it, the M.E. is a disaster waiting to happen, or one that's happening as we speak. If people are reasonably well off and happy, nothing much will change, but obviously for some time they have been under pressure . A materially well supplied happy country would never entertain radical change, and the seeds of destruction would never grow and bear fruit.
So oil could go to a point where its no longer economical to produce it, and then some.

originally posted by: snowspirit

I wish they'd stop trying to kill off Russia. It's hurting Canada too....I don't think they care though....we're watching our Cdn dollar drop along with the oil price

Canadian Dollar looks to drop to about 67c by the end of 2016. Costco runs are going to take a hit.

a reply to: Xtrozero

So will Florida as the snowbirds decide Canadian winters aren't so tough after all.

a reply to: masqua

please, please come back Canadians! It was a nice 80 degrees outside around 2pm today, you know you guys love it here! I have had to have the AC on all week! Isnt that what you all want when vacationing during the winter? dont go ....

ah, I missed you were replying to a reply to me, not me directly.


carry on. ..

originally posted by: masqua

So will Florida as the snowbirds decide Canadian winters aren't so tough after all.

I would expect Alberta to be down right balmy by the end of the year...hehe

What goes Down - - Must Come Up!


Once the minor oil companies file bankruptcy/close up shop - An "Event(s)" will occur that will skyrocket the price of oil once again. . . And when it does - - look at over $10+/gal for petrol.

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: Vroomfondel

That "peak oil" did occur early 2000s for sweet crude. The "slush" is mostly what's kept the production high since then. We once had roughly 100 barrels produced for every barrel in energy used, now the EROI is in the teens or lower overall. I think we're seeing the beginning of serious alternative rampups just in time to save the day, or at least outright collapse. Solar alone will hopefully offset the decline in production capacity.

Oil is used for so much more than just gasoline. Solar will only replace a portion of the usable energy, but will not replace any of the refined materials. Consumption will still increase.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
Cognitive dissonance is human nature. As long as there is gas in the tank, everything is ok. It won't be until we can see the bottom of the barrel that people will really start to react to this. In around 120 years we have burned through more than half of our one time endowment of oil reserves. As population grows, demand increases. We will burn through the second half much faster than the first. Much faster. The rate increases exponentially and will continue to do so until viable alternatives are not only found but implemented globally.

I think you need to read the book Superfreakonomics, very interesting. One of the stories in there was about horses in how bad they were by 1890s.

Horses are lovely animals, but when crowded into cities they cause a variety of problems. The 15 to 30 pounds of manure produced daily by each beast multiplied by the 150,000+ horses in New York city resulted in more than three million pounds of horse manure per day that somehow needed to be disposed of. That’s not to mention the daily 40,000 gallons of horse urine.

It was extremely bad in many ways to the point of undermining society on a large scale, then along came the car.

…the private automobile was widely hailed as an environmental savior. In the span of two decades, technology eradicated a major urban planning nightmare that had strained governments to the breaking point, vexed the media, tormented the citizenry, and brought society to the brink of despair.

The car was our savior from the horse and just as we start to see the same situation with gas, technology will once again fix it and gas will go the way of the horse. One word, batteries....

When you can buy a battery operated car for 30k, and it gets 400+ miles on a charge that takes less than an hour to charge back up, and oh 0 to 60 in 3 seconds, the gas engine will be put out to pasture. Pun intended...

That will happen in the next 20 years... also think of houses having battery systems that need less and less grid power and so on. We are basically the 1890s with horses right now but we could easily see a huge drop in oil needs in a few decades, think if we went from 77 million barrels per day down to 5 million per day with no end in the the reduction long before the oil runs out.

Gasoline is only one small use for oil. We burned through more than half the world's supply of oil in around 120 years. In the beginning we hardly used any. Demand has been increasing ever since. Batteries will at least partially solve the transportation problem. But what about all the other uses for oil? Think of all the plastics alone. That demand is not going to go away any time soon. Batteries and solar power can solve some problems and they should be pursued. But right now the demand for oil and oil based products is still growing. It took us 120 years to use more than half the oil. It will not take another 120 to use the rest. Not even close.

I am not spamming doom porn. It is a real issue. Sludge is not a fun material to work with. The last barrels of stock I was involved in testing had to be heated to around 300F just to get them to flow. That is the type of stock refineries are looking at now as future product sources. Refining them is not an easy task. It takes a lot of heat and a lot of pressure to get anything valuable from them. This is technology that is still in development to be truly productive. And R&D has been cut to the bone because oil prices are so low. Ideas and models have to sit stagnant until someone opens up the purse strings again and that won't happen as long as the oil available now is so cheap.

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
Think of all the plastics alone. That demand is not going to go away any time soon.

I think people will start to mine the continent size blob of plastics in the Pacific ocean one day.

a reply to: Xtrozero

I think people will start to mine the continent size blob of plastics in the Pacific ocean one day.

That blob is not as dense as some would have you believe. Still, not a good situation.
I would think that landfills would be just as productive and easier mined.

I remember a gallon of gas costing 34.9 cents. It's never going to get that low, but I would like to see the oil industry go bankrupt. Remember how they gouged the public and posted billions in just one quarters profits years back? That was a time of the worst economic poverty for most everyone else.

originally posted by: Vroomfondel

Oil is used for so much more than just gasoline. Solar will only replace a portion of the usable energy, but will not replace any of the refined materials. Consumption will still increase.

Yea so, let's actually think about that. Solar is just one source of usable energy, and it'll replace a decent chunk of demand in the coming decades. While "consumption" in general will increase, the need for oil will decrease as alternatives become viable. This decrease will fall in line with the gradual decrease in available flow of oil. Not an issue.

originally posted by: SurrenderingIsBack
What goes Down - - Must Come Up!


Once the minor oil companies file bankruptcy/close up shop - An "Event(s)" will occur that will skyrocket the price of oil once again. . . And when it does - - look at over $10+/gal for petrol.

I actually think this is right on the money, and hadnt been mentioned yet.. well not $10 gal gas

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: snowspirit

I wish they'd stop trying to kill off Russia. It's hurting Canada too....I don't think they care though....we're watching our Cdn dollar drop along with the oil price

Canadian Dollar looks to drop to about 67c by the end of 2016. Costco runs are going to take a hit.

Cant remember the fellow's name, he was on the news today, and he gave the dire prediction of as low as 59 cents.
That'll be around the time that oil is $10 usd, or $5 cdn. Ouch

originally posted by: snowspirit

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: snowspirit

I wish they'd stop trying to kill off Russia. It's hurting Canada too....I don't think they care though....we're watching our Cdn dollar drop along with the oil price

Canadian Dollar looks to drop to about 67c by the end of 2016. Costco runs are going to take a hit.

Cant remember the fellow's name, he was on the news today, and he gave the dire prediction of as low as 59 cents.
That'll be around the time that oil is $10 usd, or $5 cdn. Ouch

I just saw the prices of food in Canada... WOW! Also, people are saying to buy something from the states is about 2 times once the exchange and shipping is added... not good...

originally posted by: Phage
That blob is not as dense as some would have you believe. Still, not a good situation.
I would think that landfills would be just as productive and easier mined.

Don't worry, then Japaneses will figure out a way to to a 10 mile collection cut though it in one path...hehe