24 days to Al Gore’s ’10 years to save the planet’ and ‘point of no return’

a reply to: TechniXcality

The study I posted is fact as well....

.Only time will tell which of these will be the case, but at the moment, the sun isbehaving very similar to the Dalton Minimum (sunspot cycles 4/5), which wasa very cold time. This is based on the similarity of sun spot cycle 23 to cycle 4(which immediately preceded the Dalton Minimum).As the global climate and solar variation reveals themselves in a way notseen in the past 200 years, we will surely attain a much better understanding of what causes global warming and cooling. Time will tell. If the climatecontinues its ocean cycle cooling and the sun behaves in a manner not wit-nessed since 1800, we can be sure that climate changes are dominated by thesun and sea and that atmospheric CO2 has a very small role in climate changes.If the same climatic patterns, cyclic warming and cooling, that occurred overthe past 500 years continue, we can expect several decades of moderate tosevere global cooling

Either way - we should know within 5 years.

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks
That sounds like something Easterbrook would write. Is that Easterbrook?

a reply to: Phage

I thought you said you were familiar with the theory?

Any browser should connect you with the report I posted.

or are you just sitting in the bushes doing your usual - comment with no contribution of your own?

Global temperatures, ocean-based teleconnections, and solar variancesinterrelate with each other. A team of mathematicians (Tsonis et al., 2003,2007), led by Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, developed a model suggesting that knowncycles of the Earth’s oceans the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the NorthAtlantic Oscillation, El Nino (Southern Oscillation), and the North PacificOscillation all tend to synchronize with each other. The theory is based ona branch of mathematics known as Synchronized Chaos. The model predictsthe degreeof coupling to increase over time, causing the solution to “bifurcate”,or split. Then, the synchronization vanishes. The result is a climate shift.Eventually the cycles begin to synchronize again, causing a repeating pattern of warming and cooling, along with sudden changes in the frequency and strengthof El Nino events. They show how this has explained the major shifts that haveoccurred including 1913, 1942, and 1978. These may be in the process of synchronizing once again with its likely impact on climate very different fromwhat has been observed over the last several decades.

It also perfectly explains the amazingly strong El Nino affect this year.

The model perfectly tracked 120 years of climate change, which I believe is more than the global warming models have done.

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

I thought you said you were familiar with the theory?

I said I was familiar with Judith Curry.

Can you be more specific about the theory you are referring to and a link to what you just posted? I would like to see the prediction for the current ENSO event.

a reply to: Phage

This is what the study/reports is called Multidecadal Tendencies in ENSO and Global Temperatures Related to Multidecadal Oscillations but it involves the syncronicity of the Pacific Decadel Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino and the North Pacific Oscillation.

Judith Curry discusses the 2007 and the 2009 papers in her testimoney to Congress here

judithcurry.com...

I see that NOAA is examining this theory quite seriously

Tired of Control Freaks

Warning: You do not get me to do a whole bunch of work for you and then disappear without so much as a comment again. You either want to debate or you want to sit in the bushes and criticize. If you disappear this time, I am done with you

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

In short - since the theory involves the synchronicity of four major ocean oscillations, comparing it to ENSO won't be much good because ENSO is only one of the major ocean oscillations

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: markosity1973

Examine the first graph you posted

In about 1942, the temperature anomoly was about 0.1 above average and then examine the data for 1978 when the temperature anomoly was less then 0.

I don't know but that sure looks like cooling to me.

Tired of Control Freaks

originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
1. That the CO2 emissions can raise temperature on a planet wide scale just like it does in a greenhouse

Possible but not likely. Greenhouses don't have oceans, solar winds etc. Just because it happens in a laboratory does not mean it happens on a grander scale.

Quick funny note - greenhouses don't benefit much from the 'greenhouse effect.'

Look up the processes.

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

You either want to debate or you want to sit in the bushes and criticize. If you disappear this time, I am done with you

I hope I didn't take to long, your highness, but excuse me for taking the time to read what you provided. I wonder if you did the same.

The first thing I see from Curry, is this:

I don’t have any particular insight in Tsonis’ work in terms of the chaos/nonlinear dynamics aspects (which I am not an expert on). But I find these ideas very intriguing and they make more sense to me than anything else I’ve read on trying to interpret the the climate record of the past decade and make projections a few decades hence. I would appreciate comments on this from the denizens that are knowledgeable on this topic.

So it would seem that she is not really sure what Tsonis is talking about. But if you read further on that page you might learn something.

And my conclusion. Despite the clear shortcomings of the paper (especially as far as the coupling is concerned) it suggests that the behaviour of the indexes follows correlation-decorrelation pseudo cycles. This observation has no predictive virtue so I don’t think that it could be used for your intent to elaborate a decadal scenario. All that Tsonis says, is that the behaviour (of the indexes, not of the system itself!) significantly changes when the correlation is strong and the predictor good. This situation happened in 2001 again. So according to Tsonis something will change/has changed significantly. As his paper is neither quatitative nor predictive, he cannot say WHAT will change and HOW.

What I see in the referenced Swanson and Tsonis 2009 is this:

Synchronization followed by an increase in coupling coincided with all the major climate shifts of the 20th century, and was also shown to mark climate shifts in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warmingover time periods spanning multiple decades.

It does seem that Tsonis is acknowledging the influence of human activity, but I can understand why Curry is confused by it. It's hard to follow.

Can you point out where the prediction for the current ENSO event is made? I can't find it.

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

So, are you saying that the data since1978 s incorrect? Because there is an upward trend in mean temperature after that.

As for the sun going quiet - the oceans have been absorbing heat for nearly 40 years now. If the air temperature decreases due to lesser solar activity, we will see increased evaporation / precipitation.

New Zealand, my other home country has a wonderfully temperate climate and lots of rainfall. But it is starting to experience bad droughts too

www.niwa.co.nz...

I grew up on a dairy farm there and I am extremely familiar with rainfall patterns and what is 'normal' over there. I can tell you hand on heart last year it was drier than I have ever seen over in my home area. Creeks had dried up for the first time ever and pastures had been decimated where they would normally have been typically seedy summer growth.

a reply to: Phage

since you have the curry link - you also have the link to the original 2007 by tsonis. I understand that the 2009 paper did not add very much ( maybe I am wrong).

I don't think it predicts the effects on just one oscillation but focuses on the interplay between all four oscillations.

I don't think that anyone else has done work on this theory although it is being very much discussed. I gather that it is impressive because it has tracked past climate change very accurately. At last a model that works!

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: markosity1973

no I am not saying that - I never said that the data was incorrect (although it keeps getting changes as it was just recently. I was discussing the period of global cooling from 1942 to 1978 which gave rise to things like the Times article that was predicting another ice age.

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

I gather that it is impressive because it has tracked past climate change very accurately. At last a model that works!

Oh. You think it's impressive. Alrighty then.
You think the models the IPCC uses do not reflect past climate activity?

I don't think it predicts the effects on just one oscillation but focuses on the interplay between all four oscillations.

Then why did you say this:

It also perfectly explains the amazingly strong El Nino affect this year.

a reply to: Phage

Since Tsonis work goes back in time to before there was significant CO2 emissions, I think he is merely acknowledging that CO2 is "said" to the major climate forcing in the twentieth century. He is acknowledging that the theory is predominant but since his theory is based on the synchronicity and de-coupling of the 4 major Ocean Oscillations, I don't think it forms any part of his theory.

His theory would hold true despite anthropogenic forcings and in fact would prove that anthropogenic forcing play only a minor role in climate change.

Tired of Control Freaks

originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: markosity1973

no I am not saying that - I never said that the data was incorrect (although it keeps getting changes as it was just recently. I was discussing the period of global cooling from 1942 to 1978 which gave rise to things like the Times article that was predicting another ice age.

Tired of Control Freaks

Yes, they did predict another ice age in the 1970's. The long term graph shows a cyclic pattern of cooling and warming too. But the warming cycle we are going through is much greater than the cooling cycle on that graph. And it does not appear to have peaked yet as the evidence I posted about Australia and New Zealand suggests.

Something is causing the planet to warm and things like all the volcanic activity in 2012 - 2015 has been slowing the effect a bit with the ash in the upper atmosphere helping deflect some of the sunlight.

But this slowing down is a temporary thing.

www.sciencedaily.com...

a reply to: Phage

I certainly know that Hanson's hockey stick model of past climate change has been debunked. And none of the climate change models considered in the IPCC report have predicted the true global nature of the MWP - so yeah - I am not impressed. If they models are inaccurate for understanding past climates, why would they be any good in predicting the unknown future climate?

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: Phage

In my mind (and perhaps only in my mind) if the ocean oscillations are de-coupling and the PDO has shifted to a coo phase (which satellite data shows is a true statement), it would make sense that PDO would throw out a lot of heat as it enters the cooling phase

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

Since Tsonis work goes back in time to before there was significant CO2 emissions, I think he is merely acknowledging that CO2 is "said" to the major climate forcing in the twentieth century.

Read it again.

While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warmingover time periods spanning multiple decades.

He acknowledges a century timescale warming which does not have anything to do with his cycles. That he is reluctant to attribute it to human activity is not really relevant. Increases in CO2 concentrations do account for it.

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

perhaps you can tell me - did ENSO predict how strong this El Nino would be and on what basis?

Tired of Control Freaks

a reply to: TiredofControlFreaks

it would make sense that PDO would throw out a lot of heat as it enters the cooling phase

Indeed, and where does that heat from the ocean go? And why did the ocean get warmer this time around than the last time?