A Study in Direct and Alternative Theory - Trident Launch

First I'd like to go a bit into alternative theory. I'm going to dissect it a bit like a debriefing. It's more of a thought experiment more than it is anything else. I'll set conditions, then postulate what that would mean. Sometimes serious, sometimes fun. Enjoy the read.

Condition 1 - Alternate Theory:
Missile launch off of California was not ordered by the American political structure.

Possible Launch Countries Based on Potentially Capable Technology Programs:
1. U.S.
2. Russia
3. China
4. Great Britain

Possible Motives by Degree of FUBAR:



U.S. - DEFCON 1
Breakdown of the military chain of command by a deliberate, and encompassing, element with in the US military. The general assigned is not the general followed. The men near the President have lost the faith of their subordinates who no longer accept their orders as lawful or possessing the best interests of the American people. The President is caught off guard to the mutiny; or a mutiny has been on going and hidden from the public, and even more so from the nation's foreign enemies.

Possible Next Steps: In demonstration there's a command line in the army that is also in line with the same command structure in the navy that launched, tanks begin to line the north and south continental borders including in Alaska, until the dissension can determine where the military of the True North stands. Having practiced domestic troop movements; testing what works and what doesn't, they can mobilize to key positions domestically over a few weeks with out the populous becoming aware. Though allies and enemies with satellite tech can see the movements. Oh, and suge, one last thing, don't forget to say your prayers.

www.thefiscaltimes.com...

U.S. - DEFCON 2
Live fire training accident. Everything is fine in the command line, morale is staunch in nature. A command came in that was misinterpreted. Or potentially an automated call to launch in the Jade Helm AI, that was put into production last quarter, triggered a launch by accident nearly causing a Dr. Strangelove dooms day gap scenario.
www.dtic.mil...

Possible Next Steps - The U.S. doesn't outsource software development contracts to foreign allies anymore.

U.S. - DEFCON 1
Live fire, but not an internally misinterpreted command. The launch was a demonstration from a foreign cyber hack of U.S. launch systems.


Russia - DEFCON 1
Possible motive:
It was a Russian sub launch to show the U.S. that putting missile batteries in both Turkey and Poland will not go unanswered. It was a demonstration that if they so desired they could launch with confidence right off the Californian coast; to demonstrate that Mother Russia will no longer tolerate the U.S. meddling in it's part of the world.

What happens next:
American troop movements to U.S. borders, both in the contiguous U.S. and Alaska. Assuming this scenario, we would also have to accept that Russia wouldn't have the bravado, the balls, to launch off of California with out a strong ally. Which takes us to...

China - DEFCON 1
Possible motive:
Exactly one week after the U.S. violated it's nautical territory, China reciprocates the test of readiness with a launch off the California coast. This demonstrates China's readiness to have one of it's submarines to clandestinely infiltrate U.S. nautical territories in haste after a provocation.

What Happens Next:
The U.S. sets up a no fly zone over the launch area. They have a sub they need to hunt and that requires P-8 Poseidons cruising at varying altitudes with sonar and laser wavelength scanners in a grid. Civilian traffic would have to be kept at a minimum to preserve both mission integrity and to keep instrument noise down. Anything mechanical flying into or near sonar scopes makes it harder to find subs. Which is why launching off the coast next to a major international airport makes sense if this was a show of strength launch as the U.S. can't completely shut down the airspace over LAX, bringing LAX to a halt, with out causing panic; thus would be a very tactical point to launch under. In the time it took to clear the airspace of mission noise, the sub would have a head start in getting back to the deep unseen. A charismatic Chinaman outrageously laughs as dubbed audio doesn't quite fit the movement of his mouth, "Not only we launch off of California, we get away with it. Now, hand me my brack framed glasses and Krodak camera while I do more math science. Muhuhahaha. Bang Ding Out."



Great Britain
Possible Motive:
I've got no idea. They hate American Idol as much as I do? They're mad we returned Pierce Morgan? But they do have the technology so I had to include it here; that and as an American I will never be surprised by the British.


Condition 2 - Direct Theory:
Okay, so here let's assume there's no disinformation and the U.S. launched this strike as a top secret surprise test. I mean they certainly surprised everyone in L.A., including the media. Who else did they surprise?

Was this a multi-purposed test? I mean surely, if he hadn't known about it, the Canadian Prime minister must have been freaking out when his red phone rang with his RCAF commander letting him know there was a missile launch off the coast. Surely the Canadian military knew in advance right? But then, that means we gotta ask who didn't know about it and what's their thoughts on getting a Friday night surprise?

Was this an readiness test for the world? Imagine if you were one of the U.S.'s allies, like if you were the leaders in Great Britain, and you didn't know we were going to launch a missile. I mean, even that might be surprising. We require, through the United Nations, North Korea to announce it's missile launches in advance so that there's no misunderstandings. Did we give foreign governments warning? That's what I want to know. I want to know how Angela Merkel came about knowing there was an unannounced missile launch off of the North American coast and if she scrambled the American ambassador in Berlin on the phone and he said "I have no comment at this time, I'm just learning of it myself." Can you picture the WTF Mate moment Malcolm Turnbull had when he called John Kerry directly and was auto-forwarded to a Hillary Clinton voice to email paging service?

As a U.S. ally this launch would have a lot of diplomatic meaning to consider.

Most honest people would acknowledge that it happening on the heals of the troop movements of Operation Jade Helm is not a coincidence. It's likely the culmination of the training exercise. It could be that right now, in fact I guarantee it if the theory is taken to be directly accurate, that right now the Navy and Air Force are scouring the Pacific for one of their own subs in an exercise.

Who do you think is winning? The chased or the chasers?


VS.


Fight!

Oh, and for an interesting article on the P-8 Poseidon from way back:
individualsense.com...

Great thread with a lot of detail.

If indeed this was just a straight forward test I would like to see Russia and chinas reaction to this. With tensions so high it is no coincidence this took place at this time.
I think the US are playing a dangerous game which for all of our sake they are not called on it.

On the other hand it could have been just one of those nights. I had one the other night when I had a few too many drinks and smokes. I found an old firework in my wardrobe and wasn't sure if it even worked. So for the fun of it I lit it up and ran like a girl (no offence to running girls) and hid around the corner giggling with excitement.

Just for the record idiots and explosives don't match. So listen up "those in charge."

But didn't they redirect air traffic at LAX 24 hours before the ICBM was spotted over LA? I mean surely, if it wasn't intentional how would the U.S. Have known to redirect traffic?

a reply to: Rosinitiate

Good point ...It was probably just the US sabre rattling but one would think they would have done so somewhere else .. eta. or maybe the US got a heads up from a china/russia that they were going to make a launch and so the US shut down the airport to see if they could find the Sub .....????

a reply to: the2ofusr1

It wasn't saber rattling at all. It's was part of the post RCOH acceptance for the Kentucky.

a reply to: Rosinitiate

I don't think airport traffic was redirected 24hrs before. Could you offer a source to that please?

a reply to: liteonit6969

Air traffic was rerouted to daytime approaches from the 6th to the 10th while the MOA was active.

www.washingtonpost.com...

“Today I made the decision to remove my Senior Military Assistant Lieutenant General Ron Lewis from his position after learning about allegations of misconduct,” he said in a statement.

Uhoh?

Breakdown of the military chain of command by a deliberate, and encompassing, element with in the US military. The general assigned is not the general followed. The men near the President have lost the faith of their subordinates who no longer accept their orders as lawful or possessing the best interests of the American people.