Russian civilian aircraft goes off radar, reportedly crashes over Egypt

Just coming out now:

New audio from ISIS group in Sinai saying something like " we took down the plane but we didn't say how" or "prove we did not" I havnt found the recording yet I will try and get a better translation.

The missile has been ruled out. But did they ever say they used a missile? You can't rule out that these guys put a bomb on the plane somehow. Maybe they don't want to give proof because they want to do it again?

UPDATED:

Some translation of the audio:

"Did you notice that it crashed on the 17th day of Muharram (the first month of the Islamic calendar) — the same day we pledged allegiance to the Caliph of the Muslims?”
“For those who say (we) are liars and doubt, we say, ‘Die in your rage. We are those who shut it down with God’s help and we are not obliged to elaborate the way we shut it down.'”
“Take the wreckage and search,” he added. “Take the black box and analyze it. With God’s help we will elaborate on how we downed it in the appropriate time and way.”

a reply to: ashpack

Of course they're going to push it. So far though as far as I've heard there hasn't been any explosive residue found on the wreckage.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: ashpack

Of course they're going to push it. So far though as far as I've heard there hasn't been any explosive residue found on the wreckage.

Yeah I agree you can only take what they say with a pinch of salt but with so many unknowns it's hard to ignore! Especially if they are suggesting they could do it again.

With regards to finding explosive residue can that can be a fairly lengthy process?? I guess you only need a relatively small device to do catastrophic damage to a plane.

Some of the similarities to Pan am 103 are slightly disturbing

a reply to: ashpack

I used to work with equipment that looked for residue and you'd be surprised at how small a trace it could pick up. It'll take awhile, but there should have been at least a small trace found by now depending on where it was put, if it was a bomb.

Whatever it was it was fast. They're saying that the first look at recorder data doesn't show anything prior to the event. The CVR didn't record any talk by the crew of problems, but may have recorded an abnormal sound just prior to ending.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: ashpack

Whatever it was it was fast. They're saying that the first look at recorder data doesn't show anything prior to the event. The CVR didn't record any talk by the crew of problems, but may have recorded an abnormal sound just prior to ending.

Yes this part is very similar to the Pan Am crash. I can also see some similarities in the wreckage.
This is Pan Am:

Metrojet:

a reply to: ashpack

It's also almost identical to China 611. Any crash where the aft fuselage is involved as the cause of a breakup is going to be almost identical.

a reply to: ashpack

There's evidence of possible corrosion near where the repair was done, again similar to China 611. That aircraft had a brown stain form under the tail that was ignored for some time prior to the accident. It was caused, in part, by nicotine from people smoking on board, prior to them banning smoking. The smoke was leaking out cracks that were forming in the floor and skin area as a result of the repair not being done correctly. Several engineers saw it and passed it off as nothing serious.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: ashpack

There's evidence of possible corrosion near where the repair was done, again similar to China 611. That aircraft had a brown stain form under the tail that was ignored for some time prior to the accident. It was caused, in part, by nicotine from people smoking on board, prior to them banning smoking. The smoke was leaking out cracks that were forming in the floor and skin area as a result of the repair not being done correctly. Several engineers saw it and passed it off as nothing serious.

Yeah I remember something about that. Have they said there is evidence of this on this plane?

I also see they are saying front passengers had severe burns and rear passengers had shrapnel which would be consistent with some form of explosive event in the rear section of the aircraft somewhere.

a reply to: ashpack

They haven't said it yet but you can see it in the pictures of the aft fuselage. Several experts looking at the pictures noticed it too.

Egyptian media sources are saying that investigators are focusing on an engine explosion as their main lead now.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Any idea from the experts what could cause an engine explosion? Wouldn't they notice a bird strike on the climb if that happened?

Also, to play a little devil's advocate, how secure would the pre flight maintenance be? I.e. would it be at all feasible to attach some kind of remote det explosive to / on the engine prior to push back? (Of course, I'm sure the wind speeds would knock something like that off). I'm not trying to be outlandish (maybe I've watched too much Homeland recently), but am wondering what could cause an engine to explode?

a reply to: SonOfThor

According to earlier reports there had been reports of problems with one engine as far back as a week ago. By explosion they most certainly mean uncontained engine failure, which depending on how bad can cause a lot of damage.

A Qantas A380 suffered a uncontained failure in November 2010, and wasn't returned to service after repairs until April 2012.

To attach something to the engine you'd have to open it up and put it on the inside of the cowling. Unless they were inspecting or working on the engine it would be noticed by crew and ground crew.

a reply to: Zaphod58

There is another thread that was started with a bunch of news sources, but apparently the UK Gov. is saying that an 'explosive device' may have been the cause and are taking security precautions on travel for their tourists.

As someone with a lot of experience on how these investigations play out, is this a significant press release? Or is this just them being overly precautious?

I know you mentioned earlier, that they hadn't found explosive residue yet, but in one of the articles it mentions that the Egyptians are analyzing the sand near the crash site - how would that be of any help?

Yeah BBC are running it as a top story on evening news.UK Government have suspended all flights from Sharm and prime minister charing emergency COBRA meeting. They have sent experts to inspect screening process in Sharm airport.

I wonder what suddenly prompted them to do that....Apparently they have become increasingly concerned a bomb was on board but don't really elaborate much further.

a reply to: SonOfThor

Explosive residue is very sticky. If for some reason it was cleaned off the metal components, which trust me isn't that easy, they may find traces mixed with the sand.

The systems I used to play with, if you handled explosives two weeks ago, and touched a number of bags that will remain undisclosed due to papers signed, my system would detect it not only on all the subsequent bags, but on the first bag. And that was a commercial system designed for airport and other uses.

As for them looking at safety, since MH17 everyone is being overly cautious. There's a group claiming responsibility, there's the possibility they're telling the truth, best to overreact and have nothing happen than not react and have something happen.

a reply to: ashpack

Political games. They're trying ti look proactive. I've seen them do this before when it was possible a bomb brought a plane down.

Well,I just heard on the morning news here in NZ that they have found possible blast injuries on some of the bodies involved.......mmmmmm

originally posted by: hiddenNZ
Well,I just heard on the morning news here in NZ that they have found possible blast injuries on some of the bodies involved.......mmmmmm

Yeah it does appear there was an explosion but was it one of the engines or a bomb?

Well.....Fox is reporting that the UK Prime Ministers Office is saying it may very well have been a bomb.

Source

The Russian plane that went down in Egypt’s volatile Sinai Peninsula on Saturday “may well have been brought down by an explosive device,” the UK Prime Minister’s Office announced Wednesday.

A spokesman said British investigators were headed to Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh Airport to analyze the security there, and delayed all flights to the UK from that airport "as a precautionary measure."

The statement from 10 Downing Street marks one of the most overt suggestions from a foreign government that a bomb may have brought down the jet.

And now US intelligence is saying that a bomb planted by ISIS is the culprit. This seems odd, it was looking like all evidence was pointing to a failure of the previous repair.