Is probability a myth? Is math only correct to a certain extent?

If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right. That means 750 heads and 750 tails. Thats basic math which is found to be correct. But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

People love the Golden ratio 1.61803398875 But what about the rest of the decimal places. It get more wrong the further down the rabbit whole doesent it? so we'll just stop at 1.61803398875

is infinity real? then if I throw a rock and it took 5 seconds to hit a guy in the head. If infinity is real it will never get there from 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 seconds all the way to

4.90000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 seconds

And thats not even the smallest the numbers go either.

a reply to: OmniscientAwareness

If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right. That means 750 heads and 750 tails. Thats basic math which is found to be correct. But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

Coins are imperfect and as in all probability you have to account for the randomness in the universe

is infinity real? then if I throw a rock and it took 5 seconds to hit a guy in the head. If infinity is real it will never get there

Infinity, and infinity +x etc, is real .What is not real are the mathematics that try to prove it is not

Probability is a predictive form of mathematics. That's the opposite of statistics which are analytic because calculations are based on results collected from past events. While both can be made to make predictions about the future, those predictions are entirely theoretical.

The classic example is the roulette wheel. You have a number of red and black slots, various numbers and different ways of winning including even numbers and odd numbers. The only addition is a little green square which shifts the odds in favor of the casino ever so slightly. Just enough to make sure that the probability of winning is only 0.486 and not 0.5

In the long run, assuming the measurement time is infinity, the actual results would match the theoretical results. But that isn't going to stop someone from being lucky enough to win. If they are smart, they leave when they have more money than when they started.

There have been people who have actually thrown six dice cubes at a church fete and actually got six sixes and won a sports car. Those are odds of 1 : 46656

a reply to: Gothmog

Well said

If you believe in quantum probability field controlling all physical matter, then 50/50 is not always the case and you have to measure what the field will be at the given place and moment to be able to correctly know the probability.

The double slit experiment is from my point of view a measuring tool of the quantum probability field. Quantum probability fields can be distorted and manipulated. When you distort the field to being 100% sure of the outcome you have created a synchronicity. Most beings on earth do not even know how to observe Synchronicities.

originally posted by: OmniscientAwarenessIs probability a myth? Is math only correct to a certain extent?

"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
-- Albert Einstein

'Math' exists in the imagination, like a Rubic's cube of the mind.
It describes limited imaginary things, thus Einstein's quote.

The term 'probability' is a funny thing!
When I flip a coin and it lands on tails, what is the probability that it landed on tails?
100%!
If I flip it again and it lands on heads, what is the probability?
100%!
What is the probability that everything exists?
100%!
People talk about some infinitesimal probability that they are who and what they are today, Here! Now!
What is the probability that you are you, Here! Now!?
100%! *__-

What is the probability that every moment of existence already exists, as it is, unalterable, unchangeable?
100%!

Saying that the probability for something is less than 100% is merely a comment on our own limitations of 'vision'.
If we see the 'next moment', we are not looking at a 'probability', we are looking at 100% Reality!
To a blind man, the bright yellowness of the sun is a 'probability', a 'perhaps', a 'if the conditions are right'...
That is not the 'suns' limitation, the 'probability', it is the limitation of the blind man!

Make any sense? *__-

a reply to: namelesss

So basically the universe is deterministic?

originally posted by: Deaf Alien
a reply to: namelesss

So basically the universe is deterministic?

Just so we are on the same page;

determinism
www.philosophypages.com...

" Belief that, since each momentary state of the world entails all of its future states, it must be possible (in principle) to offer a causal explanation for everything that happens. When applied to human behavior, determinism is sometimes supposed to be incompatible with the freedom required for moral responsibility. The most extreme variety of determinism in this context is fatalism. "

I wouldn't say that.

each momentary state of the world entails all of its future states

That seems vague, 'entails'?
A (Planck) 'moment' is not a unit of 'temporal duration', it is a (literally 'timeless') unit of 'perception', a 'percept'.
I am saying that every unique moment of Universal existence exists synchronously, Here! Now!
Even if you 'strung' every moment of Universal existence 'end' to 'end', 'side to side'... They still wouldn't add up to a femtisecond!
0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0..... =0!
All existence IS "The Singularity"!

Not that one unique moment (Perspective) 'entails', other unique (Perspectives) moments.
This moment, from here, does not 'entail' Conscious awareness of the center of our sun.
It entails keyboards and monitors.
Bad word, 'entail'.
Shoo!

it must be possible (in principle) to offer a causal explanation for everything that happens.

'Causality' is not possible when all moments are equally, 'timelessly' synchronously co-existing, Here! Now!
'Causality' explains the 'appearances' of the imagination; 'motion', and the 'time' that explains it!

Nope, I do not find 'determinism' to be supportable scientifically or philosophically, (enter Rod Serling's voice) it does exist, though, logically, in the very 'conditional space' of the imagination. *__-

a reply to: namelesss

I am saying that every unique moment of Universal existence exists synchronously, Here! Now!

So the whole of the universe and EVERYTHING has happened, is happening and will happen at the same time? Right here and now?

That doesn't answer the question why it is happening to you and me and everyone else right now.

originally posted by: Deaf Alien
a reply to: namelesss

I am saying that every unique moment of Universal existence exists synchronously, Here! Now!

So the whole of the universe and EVERYTHING has happened, is happening and will happen at the same time? Right here and now?

That doesn't answer the question why it is happening to you and me and everyone else right now.

All 'why', all 'meaning', exists in the (thoughts/imagination) eye of the beholder!
Want a 'why'?
Imagine one!
That is what we all do, who need 'why's' to feed the ego/imagination.
You will never find a 'why' in the center of a rock!
You will imagine that it might provide fissile material to blow away the crazy neighbors, but that 'purpose' exists in your imagination, not in the rock.
So, there's the 'why'.
Unsatisfactory, I understand, but Reality nonetheless! *__-

a reply to: namelesss

Sorry I didn't explain correctly. You are experiencing reality right now. Why now, not in the past or the future?

I know this is a very basic philosophy but for others to understand here it comes:

You are going through time, correct? You are aging, right?

Why now?

You are either never born or never existed even after you were born and died.

We are existing right now.

I don't know how to explain it right now

originally posted by: Deaf Alien
a reply to: namelesss
Sorry I didn't explain correctly. You are experiencing reality right now. Why now, not in the past or the future?

All there is is right Here! Right Now!
Check it out for yourself!
Any moment at all just stop and ask yourself, where and when am I?
It will always be Here! Now!
Even your memories and imagination, in which the 'future' and 'past' exists, is being perceived Here! Now!
We exist in all moments, ever, as the One Universal Consciousness!
That is how we can 'see' the 'future'; we literally see it, right Here! Right Now!
At this very moment we are 'seeing the 'future' (AND the 'past'!)! Capisce'?
All Here! Now!

I know this is a very basic philosophy but for others to understand here it comes:
You are going through time, correct? You are aging, right?

That is a common perspective.
How I see it is that every moment is a unique synchronous Perspective of the totality of who and what we are! Here! Now!
From one Perspective, I am a cute baby, from another an old man, from another, a strong young sailor, from another a middle aged blacksmith/father/husband...
All this am I, and more, all Here! Now!
Just because of the limitations of Perspective, we imagine (ego) ourselves 'differently', changing, morphing, evolving, disintegrating, 'aging', limited, bound, defined...
We are ALL that!
At once!

Like a 'cloud' rather than an 'object'.
Like the quantum cloud of 'information' that requires the limitations of Perspective to perceive any of what we commonly call Reality!

Like 'left' and 'right' and 'up' and 'down' are all the exact same thing, just differing momentary Perspectives;

'Point to the left'.
Easy.
Note where you are pointing.
Now turn 1 degree and point to the left.
Again note the results.
Now another degree, etc...
And another 1/4 of a degree...
Turn in every possible direction, on every possible axis!
It turns out that every direction is 'left', 'left' is a 'cloud needing a particular Perspective to have any 'direction' at all!
Now point to the 'right'!
Same drill!
Note that the exact same cloud of 'left', is also, at the same moment, a cloud of 'right'!
Do the experiment!

The only 'distinctions' that can even be called 'left' or 'right', are a matter of Perspective!

Ultimately, We are One (unchanging (motionless), all inclusive) 'Cloud'/Reality!!

Why now?

You are either never born or never existed even after you were born and died.

We are existing right now.

I don't know how to explain it right now

All there is is right Now!
All existence IS the Singularity!
Please, take your time to formulate your questions!
The quality of the question reflects the quality of the answer.
Am I making any sense to you? *__-

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness
If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right.

Actually it's not 50/50.

That means 750 heads and 750 tails.

If it were 50/50 it would not mean that.

Thats basic math which is found to be correct.

How is it correct when it's wrong?

But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

It really seems the problem is you have no idea what probability means.

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness

.................
People love the Golden ratio 1.61803398875 But what about the rest of the decimal places. It get more wrong the further down the rabbit whole doesent it? so we'll just stop at 1.61803398875

This isn’t a correct statement.The golden ratio is the ratio 1:0.618(phi) or 1:1.618(Phi).It is calculated by this equation
√5+1÷2=1.618033988749895……..(Phi)

it’s reciprocal phi is calculated:
1÷1.618033988749895=0.618033988749895

This is the only number that has this reciprocal ratio to “1”

That is the static real world application Phi even though it is irrational(like Pi) and is infinite because it never resolves.The most realistic(real reality) equation for phi-Phi is progressive.It is calculated using the Fibonacci sequence.

0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,…etc to infinity.

Divide any adjacent Fn (after 1) and they will be “progressive” (my term)Phi or phi.For example the earliest sum of phi-Phi is
Fn3÷Fn4=0.666……
Fn5÷Fn4=1.666….
2÷3=0.666.......
5÷3=1.666....

phi-Phi stabilizes for infinity at 0.618….1.618…..at
Fn11÷Fn12=0.61805555555….
Fn13÷Fn12=1.61805555555….
89÷144=0.61805555555555….
233÷144=1.6180555555555…

phi-Phi becomes equivalent to mathematical static phi-Phi at:
Fn36÷Fn37=0.618033988749895…
Fn38÷ Fn37=1.618033988749895…
14,930,352÷24,157,817=0.618033988749895…
39,088,169÷24,157,817=1.618033988749895…

As the Fn grow larger they sum closer to .618 when calculated as above... but never reach resolve.However the numbers do not grow more wrong from the Golden ratio but more right.

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness
If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right. That means 750 heads and 750 tails. Thats basic math which is found to be correct. But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

Probability and the concept of "random" don't really exist; they are just a shorthand for humans to compensate for a lack of detail.

If you could measure and evaluate every single possible variable involved with rolling a die, you could calculate the outcome. The problem is, it's completely unfeasible for us to be able to measure and evaluate every one of the trillions upon trillions upon trillions upon trillions of variables involved in rolling a die - including everything about the thrower, the die, and the rolling surface down to an atomic level, not to mention the environment in which the roll occurs.

Because certain factors are outside of our ability to measure and evaluate, we treat them as "random".

originally posted by: Rex282

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness

.................
People love the Golden ratio 1.61803398875 But what about the rest of the decimal places. It get more wrong the further down the rabbit whole doesent it? so we'll just stop at 1.61803398875

This isn’t a correct statement.The golden ratio is the ratio 1:0.618(phi) or 1:1.618(Phi).It is calculated by this equation
√5+1÷2=1.618033988749895……..(Phi)

it’s reciprocal phi is calculated:
1÷1.618033988749895=0.618033988749895

This is the only number that has this reciprocal ratio to “1”

That is the static real world application Phi even though it is irrational(like Pi) and is infinite because it never resolves.The most realistic(real reality) equation for phi-Phi is progressive.It is calculated using the Fibonacci sequence.

0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,…etc to infinity.

Divide any adjacent Fn (after 1) and they will be “progressive” (my term)Phi or phi.For example the earliest sum of phi-Phi is
Fn3÷Fn4=0.666……
Fn5÷Fn4=1.666….
2÷3=0.666.......
5÷3=1.666....

phi-Phi stabilizes for infinity at 0.618….1.618…..at
Fn11÷Fn12=0.61805555555….
Fn13÷Fn12=1.61805555555….
89÷144=0.61805555555555….
233÷144=1.6180555555555…

phi-Phi becomes equivalent to mathematical static phi-Phi at
Fn36÷Fn37=0.618033988749895…
Fn38÷ Fn37=1.618033988749895…
14,930,352÷24,157,817=0.618033988749895…
39,088,169÷24,157,817=1.618033988749895…

As the Fn grow larger they sum closer to .618 when calculated as above... but never reach resolve.However the numbers do not grow more wrong from the Golden ratio but more right.

What would that mean in laymans terms?

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness
If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right.

Actually it's not 50/50.

That means 750 heads and 750 tails.

If it were 50/50 it would not mean that.

Thats basic math which is found to be correct.

How is it correct when it's wrong?

But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

It really seems the problem is you have no idea what probability means.

no you don't grasp the idea. 2 coins 50/50 chance. 4 coins 50/50 chance. 3 coins is a 33.33333.. Chance. Basic math as OP mentioned.

originally posted by: namelesss

originally posted by: OmniscientAwarenessIs probability a myth? Is math only correct to a certain extent?

"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
-- Albert Einstein

'Math' exists in the imagination, like a Rubic's cube of the mind.
It describes limited imaginary things, thus Einstein's quote.

The term 'probability' is a funny thing!
When I flip a coin and it lands on tails, what is the probability that it landed on tails?
100%!

Its not what side shows after the coin has fallen. It's about all the probable choices and/or options it has to land while it is still in the air flipping and/or undecided. Not after the fact.

originally posted by: OmniscientAwareness
If I flip a coin 1,500 times odds are 50/50 right. That means 750 heads and 750 tails. Thats basic math which is found to be correct. But in reality odds of flippin a coin 1,500 times and getting 750 for both sides is more like 1 in 1,000,000

People love the Golden ratio 1.61803398875 But what about the rest of the decimal places. It get more wrong the further down the rabbit whole doesent it? so we'll just stop at 1.61803398875

is infinity real? then if I throw a rock and it took 5 seconds to hit a guy in the head. If infinity is real it will never get there from 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 seconds all the way to

4.90000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 seconds

And thats not even the smallest the numbers go either.

I think the post starts well with the coin flip then it gets confusing with the throw of the rock.

Probability is interesting in many ways. I remember studying probability during my business studies. It was quite important to the subject of financial management. Quantum Physics was thrown in too (Black and Scholes models , etc).

My real interest in probability however is very different to that of most people. I like probability because it represents what happens when you do not interfere . Non-interference gives rise to the myth of probability. It is my own theory.

Throw a coin ten times and the result will be far from 50:50 (perhaps 7 to 3). Throw the coin 10,000 times and it will be close to 50:50 (although not exactly - but close enough). But , in my view, the 10,000 is not relevant . It is the 10 times throw which really impacts and within which timescale we, as interferer, take control. After that we are not actively intefering.

I once argued on ATS that I could make a coin fall HHT if I threw it three times. Then, someone said that ,even if I succedded, I could not repeat the feat over 100 times. I simply replied that I only needed to win the first time and take the money. Subsequent throws had no relevance.

There is magic in numbers so far as they are not dead numbers.

Every creature on earth has been defying odds since the admiration of the millions of sperm cells they raced and/or fought with to reach the egg.