Maybe there are reasons for an escalation in september (China, dollars and gold)

This post is long and is divided in 5 parts
Summer 2014
Spring 2015
Summer 2015
Conclusions

August has been a pretty busy month in therms of military and economic action. Many are already looking at Monday Aug 24 as the start of the global collapse and the doom porn prediction for september 2015 are at an all time high.

There recently have been reports of increased military presence of Russia in Syria, which resulted from anonimous sources, first from an Israeli media then from Libanon officials. The proofs were far from convincing, but by itself the event can't really be impossible. In fact it could have been somehow planned after certain announcements that we seem to have missed and go back years down to 2006, and triggered by the current "warnings" from the USA and some events related to flying space permissions.
The question I asked in another thread and that I never see presented is "why now?".

Because the situation for Assad is very bad? Why not slightly earlier then?
Ukraine was keeping Russia from intervening? Well Ukraine is still there and probably in a stalled situation that can escalate at any time (I'd say will escalate if Russia moves to Syria).
Russian economy weak? It's still weak.

So there is no real reason why the situation should require a russian intervention now. Or there is?

The website Russia Today* reported Tuesday that Mr. Putin has drafted a bill to block the use of both the American greenback and the euro in trade between the bloc of countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.

The measure “would help expand the use of national currencies in foreign trade payments and financial services and thus create preconditions for greater liquidity of domestic currency markets,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

From another article in businessinsider

On August 28, Putin asked parliament to ratify a treaty among members of the Commonwealth of Independent States that would expand the use of their national currencies -- instead of the dollar or euro -- in foreign trade payments and financial services.

The move came as the ruble and other currencies across the region continue to suffer. It followed months of calls in Russia for the creation of a single currency for the Eurasian Economic Union, which comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

The proposed name: the "altyn."

So now we have a motive for the West to start waging for a concerning situation with Russian military involvement that can escalate the conflict.

continued...

edit on 10 9 2015 by Mastronaut because: (no reason given)

edit on 10 9 2015 by Mastronaut because: (no reason given)

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Flashback

Aug 2014
For many this wasn't unexpected, in fact it goes back to the 2006-2009 China-Russia trade agreements, but only slightly more than one year ago the central banks of both countries agreed on a draft.

The Russian and Chinese central banks have agreed on a draft currency swap agreement, which will allow them to increase trade in domestic currencies and cut the dependence on the US dollar in bilateral payments.

Oct/Dec 2014
Bloomberg report the event mid-october when the details were released.

The three-year swap deal is worth 150 billion yuan ($24.5 billion) and is one of 38 accords spanning energy, technology and finance concluded at a meeting in Moscow of delegations overseen by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and China’s Premier Li Keqiang.
....
The SNB and the People’s Bank of China on July 21 agreed to establish a bilateral currency swap line. Germany’s Bundesbank and the Bank of England signed deals with the PBOC earlier this year.

At the end of year, Dec 29, rt.com reports that the agreement comes into force.

China and Russia have effectively switched to domestic currencies in trading using financial tools as swaps and forwards, as they seek to reduce the influence of the US dollar and foreign exchange risks.

The agreement signed in the end of October comes into force Monday, December 29, and provides a currency swap of CNY150 billion (up to US$25 billion).

Fun fact: Dec 31 see a large explosion in a chinese factory producing car parts for GM.


Winter 2015
Then we have other news from TASS

“In foreign trade we from now on shall be using other currencies, including yan, euro, Turkish lira, Russian rouble and South Korean won,” the Central Bank’s deputy head Gholam Ali Kamyab told

After this, we have an article from ibtimes Feb 9

Russia and Egypt may replace the U.S. dollar with their national currencies for settlement of accounts in bilateral trade, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Egyptian media ahead of his visit to the country on Monday.

So in the start of February we have 4 countries willing to abandon the US dollar for their trades: Russia, China, Iran, Egypt.
During this month the Fed starts "discovering" that China has dumped 75b$ in US Treasury bonds. Something that Bloomberg noticed a month later.
By the end of the month the whole BRICS is on the verge of dumping the dollar.

China goes further promoting its currency in SE Asia from pravda Mar 3

In Thailand, China has recently erected a curious billboard. The words on the billboard announce a new "world currency" that is called Renminbi. The US dollar is nearing the end of its global power and dominance.
Renminbi's trading hubs have appeared all over the world, from Singapore to London to Luxembourg to Frankfurt to Toronto, Pravda.Ru reports.

Transnational corporations, McDonald's for example, issue bonds in renminbi. Sovereign governments, including the UK, issue debt denominated in renminbi.

Spring 2015
Like a bolt in a sunny day April opens with the Iran deal that seen in this context makes much much more sense.

Then we stumble on a Forbes article that in hindsight is funny

Dollar: Bad?

No.

Dollar weakness is not solely resting on the whims of central bankers outside of Washington, even Booth knows that. If major bond and currency traders don’t get spooked by China and Russia converting to another currency, including gold, then the dollar’s decline will merely be gradual.

If not, then all hell breaks loose.
....
China: Good?

Depends who you ask.

The pace of any gradual change in the dollar will be driven by China. Beijing is increasingly confident the yuan will be part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights next year. Once that happens, it opens the possibility for other central banks to start buying Chinese yuan. In theory, that will either slow the pace of dollar buying, or reduce dollar positions altogether in favor of Chinese debt.

In practice tho, other central banks were ALREADY buying chinese yuan.


continued...

In May we go back to some productive announcement rather than currency-flexing. The wall street journal talks about a new investment fund. This news will be an important reference in august.

BEIJING—China and Russia agreed to launch a $2 billion investment fund to develop agricultural projects in the two countries and set up a free-trade zone between their key farming belts, the state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund said Friday.
....
The agreement announced Friday follows massive bilateral deals last year sealing the countries’ cooperation in the energy sector, including a $400 billion deal for Russia to supply its neighbor with natural gas.

At this point there is something worth mentioning that is addressed from Bloomberg in May: India and its huge gold reserves (especially private). At this point in time it does seem a financial suggestion rather than a veiled warning, anyway it is a no-go in buying gold at the risk of depreciating the Rupee.

While imports will also become more expensive, low oil prices should continue to cushion the blow. Also, a weaker currency will make the import of gold more expensive and should deter Indians from spending more on what's essentially an unproductive asset. Even as overall imports have fallen, the value of gold imported has risen in recent months.

Indians are obsessed with gold, and the closure of the market created a new black market where the finance couldn't control prices and in the end the thing was resolved with indian jewellers having to be lended gold rather than possess it. This would put new gold on the market that is being drained by Russia in China in support of the Renmibi as a reserve currency.

I suggest reading an article of Jeff Nielson, it's a bit too oriented on the "One Bank"/NWO style, but has a few good points across this serie of articles.

In the end of May the situation starts to boil. There have been repeated hacking (also discussed here and here on this site) and we see articles like one from the CNBC where the threat on the dollar is a bigger concern than few months ago.

"Taken alone, these actions do not mean the end of the dollar as the leading global reserve currency. But, taken in the context of many other actions around the world including Saudi Arabia's frustration with U.S. foreign policy toward Iran, and China's voracious appetite for gold, these actions are meaningful steps away from the dollar," Jim Rickards, portfolio manager at West Shore Group and partner at Tangent Capital Partners, told CNBC via email.

Summer 2015
The summer warms the alarm, Businessinsider goes with "WEAPONIZATION OF FINANCE: Russia is turning to the Chinese yuan" citing Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at UralSib Capital:

The US-imposed sanctions are part of Washington's larger strategic geopolitical plan called "the weaponization of finance," which Ian Bremmer defined as the "systematic use of carrots (access to capital markets) and sticks (varied types of sanctions) as tools of coercive diplomacy."

Basically, the US imposes sanctions (or other coercive economic measures) on "rogue states" (i.e., states that are acting contrary to US interests), which should then force that state to change its behavior if it wishes to have the sanctions lifted or to have access to US capital markets again.

The 12th of June we have the first chinese market crash with following government intervention and another series of official trickeries. One of these was the deliberate announcement of an increase in gold reserves, the first in 6 years, that increased the reserves by 600t, a ridiculously small amount.
The gold must have come from internal trade or production, because foreign acquisition must be quickly reported (and anyway there is no way China was able to buy 600t of gold in a month). The expectation was for a much higher reserve and started rumors of China conceililng tons of gold to keep the price low and continue to buy.

Fun fact: Jun 12 possible factory explosion (might be a report of a previous incident tho)


continued...

Since 19th of June the price of gold steadily dropped from 1203$ to 1078$ Jul 24th. In a slightly longer timeframe oil prices went down aswell.

Fun fact: Jul 16th Rizhao explosion

Jul 17th China announces its total foreign exchange reserves. In the last three months it had dumped more than 140b$ US treasuries.


We are then getting into the hot month, August, where the first news that strikes is from indiatimes also repeated in rt.com.

BEIJING: China's central bank has allowed usage of Russian currency ruble along with yuan instead of US dollar in Suifenhe city on the Sino-Russian border in northeast China, the first site in the communist country where a foreign currency can freely circulate.

The People's Bank of China (PBC) authorised Suifenhe City in Heilongjiang Province as a pilot zone where the ruble can be officially used alongside the yuan instead of US dollar.

Heilongjiang Province is the province where Russia and China wants to apply the joined agricultural program in which they will invest 2b$ as said in the news in May.

The news is dated Aug 9th. Two days later China devaluates the yuan by nearly 2%.

Fun fact: Aug 12 has seen one of the biggest booms in recent history in the port of Tianjin, something so big it required closing the biggest chinese supercomputer.

Aug 14 China announces to have bought 19t of gold in a normal monthly upgrade of FX orders. Russia does this monthly since years, but China was silent for 6 years, then updated overnight and then started buying more than the twice the average of the last 6 years. So China is back on the market.

Around Aug 21 we have higher tension in Korea, some people were already preparing for a proxy war.

Curiously on Aug 19 there is another news that has a strange correlation: the BBC reports the finding of a gold train. Coincidentally the price of gold went from 1118$ to 1155$ in 2 days and then started going low by the 23rd Aug. Monday August 24th was a terrible day for the stock markets in every part of the world, but was also the day where the Korea crisis was solved.

Fun facts: Shandong explosion and explosion in Tokyo US base


At this point I want to get back a quote from the start of the post

On August 28, Putin asked parliament to ratify a treaty among members of the Commonwealth of Independent States that would expand the use of their national currencies -- instead of the dollar or euro -- in foreign trade payments and financial services.

Fun facts: another Shandong explosion


continued...

Conclusions

I have to say I'm going to be happy for the doom porn lovers, because I feel that the escalation of events has sped up quite a lot. I don't know if Syria is a trap for Russia or a pot of gold, I am leaning for the former tho. However when there is an economical system at risk, it's time for war, and I'm pretty sure both Beijing, Teheran and Moscow know this and are just waiting the inevitable.

China probably has already all the gold needed to back up a new monetary system, regardless if it's accepted in the sdr or not.
External interest are playing the market in the East in part to keep up the Bank of Japan (the next economic implosion on the list) and in part to destroy chinese economy.
The cyberwar started at lest 2-3 years ago with the US, since Sony and Xbox live were hacked, and went on with the US breaches.
The objective of China is replacing the US Dollar as a world reserve currency with a system of their own (not just the currency).

Russia wants to bring the EEU countries under a federation and remain the biggest energy trader in the EU. They won't let Syria go to a puppet or stay in chaos and despite the Iran dean they are backed up by Teheran in case of big issues.

I do feel that, regardless if what was reported was accurate or not, Russia will build an army in Syria to defend Assad, because the signs have been that the narrative is not anymore about ISIS, but ISIS and Assad, which is not the premise on which they are here. The war may go military after having being fought on the intelligence, cyber, economic and logistic/manufacturing side already.

a reply to: Mastronaut

Good thread with a wealth of information (and some reasonable speculation).

Thanks for putting this together - I do think China may be hoping to revive their economic power via a new currency and the gold is a major aspect of this move - I think Russia and China have had this plan for quite some time and when the current system crumbles (as it inevitably will), they hope to step in with the "solution" (with China and Russia holding some of the better cards at the table of course)

Bravo, for an excellent, intricate and informative thread

The motive is surely there, and so the US has kicked it up another notch now with blaming ISIS in Syria for developing and using chemical weapons in both Iraq and Syria.

US Officials: IS making and using Chemical Weapons in Iraq and Syria

A US official tells the BBC there is growing belief within the US government that the so-called Islamic State is making and using crude chemical weapons in Iraq and Syria.

a reply to: Mastronaut

On top of all that.
Now that it's here, september just sorta feels right!
SnF

a reply to: Mastronaut
S&F just for the effort! Thanks for the thread, I am marking for a morning read.

The dollar won't be going anywhere anytime soon. The articles you referenced talk of trading in other currencies, aka adding more to the ones they currently accept, not dropping the dollar. The dollar isn't the only reserve currency, it's just the most widely used. Asking all of those countries to completely drop the dollar would be asking them to commit economic suicide.

Putin pushed in Ukraine, the US backed off. In Syria, if I know America, it will be the opposite. Russia will use RT and other media to play the victim, but only Russians will buy it.

BRICS is talked about so highly, it will never happen unless China puts full backing into it (all of their gold reserves), and with China's market already tumbled down, that isn't likely to happen in any near decade.

The economies of BRICS are in no shape to change the current global market, it's just a simple fact. China is too invested in military gains to be involved in the creation of an Eastern central banking system, and the Russian Ruble is well, worse than the Dollar in terms of hyperinflation.

The other reason no world war will occur

Outstanding post! You have connected all the dots and made the situation crystal clear, thank you. a reply to: Mastronaut

a reply to: Mastronaut

* - The Russian government has already confirmed they are sending military aid in addition to "Humanitarian" supplies to Syria. Putin has already backtracked on his statement about no boots on the ground with an updated "as we go forward" look.

Yahoo News - Lavrov confirms Russian military equipment sent to Syria

Global Security Propaganda - Lavrov confirms military aid sent to syria

* - Reserve currencies
- US Dollar
- Euro
- Canadian Dollar
- Japanese Yen
- Pound Sterling
- Swiss Franc

* - Petro Currency
Defined as any nation that exports oil

Trade -
Many nations have changed over to local currency exchanges when doing business with their neighbors. Russia and china are no different and those nations have been doing this for a few years now.


Why now in Syria?
Because Assad is losing bad, controlling only 10%-20% of Syria with the remainder falling to ISIS or FSA. Irans top general, the one who broke sanctions by visiting Russia, was apparently to discuss how to help keep Assad in power. In addition to Russian military deploying to Syria, Iran has their own Qud forces on the ground as well.


Why are you guys so caught up with the US dollar and trade between nations that are not the US?

originally posted by: Xcathdra

The world reserve currencies in the SDR only include dollar, euro, sterling and yen. It should include the yuan from oct/dec 2016.

Many nations have changed over to local currency exchanges when doing business with their neighbors. Russia and china are no different and those nations have been doing this for a few years now.

The difference is in the extent. For the US it will be a billion dollar loss that required zero effort. It was basically a free tax.

Why are you guys so caught up with the US dollar and trade between nations that are not the US?

Because the precedents are remarkable. Whoever talks about creating a currency based on something doesn't have a bright future. Same goes for those who want to trade goods without a third currency.

Also I am not even sure the problem is the dollar per se, I think the US would have a surge in internal economy if they could untie the currency from the world reserve. The problem might be that the sinorussian allegiance is privy to informations that many people suspect since years, ie that there is no way to back up the dollars sent around in the world thanks to the printing frenzy of the Fed.

In a situation like this you can expect a direct confrontation or the scam is not going to work anymore in the future. So either China is beaten by economic means or the covert war will go on until a major event will require real military intervention. The new Iron curtain is in the caucasus now.

originally posted by: Vector99
The dollar won't be going anywhere anytime soon. The articles you referenced talk of trading in other currencies, aka adding more to the ones they currently accept, not dropping the dollar. The dollar isn't the only reserve currency, it's just the most widely used. Asking all of those countries to completely drop the dollar would be asking them to commit economic suicide.

The dollar doesn't need to disappear, it is just overvalued because for international trade you HAVE TO use dollars to trade certain goods regardless if the US is involved in the business. It's how the world financial system racket works.

Putin pushed in Ukraine, the US backed off. In Syria, if I know America, it will be the opposite. Russia will use RT and other media to play the victim, but only Russians will buy it.

Every side will use their media for propaganda, forget to have an article that will tell you the whole situation without cherry picking the infos and playing dumb. I don't know why you think the US backed off in Ukraine, they aren't even there officially and the situation is stalled since months.

BRICS is talked about so highly, it will never happen unless China puts full backing into it (all of their gold reserves), and with China's market already tumbled down, that isn't likely to happen in any near decade.

It's the opposite and I gave you the context. China has much more gold than it is showing and this is more or less taken as a fact for anybody in the business. The thing is China is also intrested in getting some profit in selling US Treasury so they have no intention to overvalue gold or undervalue the USD as long as they have billions in reserves (which they are dumping). Chinese market is not the western markets where countries are puppets covering a transnational banking entity. China government IS their market.

The economies of BRICS are in no shape to change the current global market, it's just a simple fact. China is too invested in military gains to be involved in the creation of an Eastern central banking system, and the Russian Ruble is well, worse than the Dollar in terms of hyperinflation.

Western economies did move most of their production lines to Asia and EU eastern block, they have nothing to reply to if China reduces the exports. 30% of world growth in last years has been attributed to China. The government pushed the population to buy commodities and gold to increase the influx without having to declare anything and keep the price low or even in a continuous drop.
The COMEX now shows that 1 ounce of their paper-gold is worth 200 real gold ounces. And these are official data, so the real value might be smaller.

Gold is both a commodity and a currency. The biggest gold producers are in the eastern block and so are the players. To use a nuke you need a very bold reason and that's why I'd expect an escalation, because we are looking at things like this which will put the nail in the coffin of the entire global market and can really bring the conflict to a global military one.

The stakes are the highest since WWII, expect players to play. China wants the economy, Russia wants to be the exclusive Euro dealer for oil and gas, Iran wants the lead in the middle east securing BRICS position. Ukraine and Yemen are scapegoats to keep the armies away from Syria where we have a war for currency, oil, gold and global control.

What scares me is that if they (Russia/China) are starting to move now the pressure must be high, and they must be somehow ready despite they don't seem ready for a conflict at all. So what are they hiding? Did they just lose their mind and proceeded to suicide?

Nice post.

originally posted by: Mastronaut

The dollar doesn't need to disappear, it is just overvalued because for international trade you HAVE TO use dollars to trade certain goods regardless if the US is involved in the business. It's how the world financial system racket works.

What would that be? Oil? Nope

Every side will use their media for propaganda, forget to have an article that will tell you the whole situation without cherry picking the infos and playing dumb. I don't know why you think the US backed off in Ukraine, they aren't even there officially and the situation is stalled since months.

Of course both east and west use propaganda, I'm able to see through the bull# though. The US was in Ukraine from the start, just not for direct military support like Russia is planning to do in Syria. The US won't allow them to help Assad, and Putin will be foolish to think otherwise.

China has much more gold than it is showing and this is more or less taken as a fact for anybody in the business.

Pure speculation. No different than saying there is no gold in Fort Knox, we just don't know. Claiming anything other than what is stated isn't wise.

The thing is China is also intrested in getting some profit in selling US Treasury so they have no intention to overvalue gold or undervalue the USD as long as they have billions in reserves (which they are dumping).

Understatement of the century? I guess technically you could call it billions, but it's about 1,260 billion. I'd refer to that as trillions, but meh that's just me. They dumped 180 billion, the market barely nudged, and they still remain the #1 foreign holder of US debt, barely above Japan.

Western economies did move most of their production lines to Asia and EU eastern block, they have nothing to reply to if China reduces the exports. 30% of world growth in last years has been attributed to China. The government pushed the population to buy commodities and gold to increase the influx without having to declare anything and keep the price low or even in a continuous drop.

They also shipped manufacturing to South America, Mexico, Pakistan, and India. Lots of places to pick up China's slack in manufacturing were it to occur

The COMEX now shows that 1 ounce of their paper-gold is worth 200 real gold ounces. And these are official data, so the real value might be smaller.

You sure about that? One ounce of chinese paper-gold is worth around $260,000? Source? I can't find anything correlating that

What scares me is that if they (Russia/China) are starting to move now the pressure must be high, and they must be somehow ready despite they don't seem ready for a conflict at all. So what are they hiding? Did they just lose their mind and proceeded to suicide?

Russia, maybe, China, no chance. Chinese economy is fully dependent on exports to western nations.

Also, another thing about BRICS, the I and the C are in major conflict at the moment over the South China Sea, don't expect them to be friendly militarily any time soon.

originally posted by: Vector99
What would that be? Oil? Nope

Oil yes, financial products also. Before China and Russia only Iran and Venezuela were accepting USD and Euros, other two countries who tried to accept different currencies for their oil were wasted in 2003 and in 2011. Please correct me if I'm wrong. USD being the world reserve currency is widely used in trades, the announcement basically said "we aren't going to use USD anymore, but to dump it". Call it the sinorussian flexing.

Of course both east and west use propaganda, I'm able to see through the bull# though. The US was in Ukraine from the start, just not for direct military support like Russia is planning to do in Syria. The US won't allow them to help Assad, and Putin will be foolish to think otherwise.

But here there is a problem of legitimacy and Putin seems to want to exploit it. The war in Syria hasn't been "approved" by the Congress, it's "war against ISIS" that was approved.
Putin has the legitimacy to intervene militarily for an ally, regardless if this ally is likeable or not for NATO and the same works for Iran.
On the other side the west has to find a new reason beside ISIS, produce false flags or approve a new plan to remove Assad and have the public support. I bet the narrative will be "to stop this flood of immigration" thanks to the fabulous Hegelian dialectic we deserve.

Putin knows NATO won't openly engage either, so this move is something different than the stall-until-Assad-collapses strat they were planning. If it end up being a trap, well played, but Putin is trying to keep EU Gas monopoly and won't let another player in the form of the saudis. I believe Putin is in a safer position compared to the western allies in therms of support for intervention.

Pure speculation. No different than saying there is no gold in Fort Knox, we just don't know. Claiming anything other than what is stated isn't wise.

Yes and no. We know the official amount that went into the private sector, there is no way to track it until it reappears in either goods or reserves.
On the other side we have no way to know how much gold has Fort Knox because they don't tell

Understatement of the century? I guess technically you could call it billions, but it's about 1,260 billion. I'd refer to that as trillions, but meh that's just me. They dumped 180 billion, the market barely nudged, and they still remain the #1 foreign holder of US debt, barely above Japan.

What's intresting is the trend, they sold 140b in 3 months while they sold less than 100 in the year before. With the excuse of protecting the economy they are dumping billions of USD, and 1260b is one trillion, so techincally I don't feel I need to use "trillions"
I also feel you underestimate the "nudge", in fact those money were used to cope a series of big crashes and weren't used to do any appreciable damage to the market.

They also shipped manufacturing to South America, Mexico, Pakistan, and India. Lots of places to pick up China's slack in manufacturing were it to occur

Good point, but save from India nowhere near technically equivalent. It will take a lot to train them to get at the same standards of China, but I don't doubt it's not replaceable, it's just a big PITA doing that, time that the chinese will spend without... what do we sell them? Luxury goods?

You sure about that? One ounce of chinese paper-gold is worth around $260,000? Source? I can't find anything correlating that

Mm? I said the COMEX, the gold futures. I think you reversed the meaning of my sentence: comex paper gold is worth 1/200sh of real gold deposits. I read an article on Zerohedge about this announcement.
The problem is supply (that's my speculation on India as a platfond) and they sold more futures than can be actually served for quite a long time if 2 of the main players in extraction are not willing to sell it.

Also, another thing about BRICS, the I and the C are in major conflict at the moment over the South China Sea, don't expect them to be friendly militarily any time soon.

I absolutely don't, I agree with you. I think India will not move against China (I think the problem is not south China sea but is around the myanmar borders) and frankly I am not really sure about India's role in a global conflict. They have problems also with some "western-backed" ally like Pakistan so it's not like they have an easy life.
I can see India moving towards central Asia in the case of an attack on Iran or as support in Yemen. But I don't see India confronting Russia or China directly, just my 2cents.

originally posted by: Mastronaut

Oil yes, financial products also.

In recent times there is nothing that demands US dollars be used, unless the seller demands US dollars as payment.

Putin has the legitimacy to intervene militarily for an ally, regardless if this ally is likeable or not for NATO and the same works for Iran.

Just the same as the US would have for intervening in Ukraine per this

Putin knows NATO won't openly engage either, so this move is something different than the stall-until-Assad-collapses strat they were planning.

That would be rather arrogant of him, the west has a lot invested in that pipeline. Don't be surprised if Russia shows up and suddenly all the rebels have SAMs.

Mm? I said the COMEX, the gold futures. I think you reversed the meaning of my sentence: comex paper gold is worth 1/200sh of real gold deposits.

No, you said

The COMEX now shows that 1 ounce of their paper-gold is worth 200 real gold ounces. And these are official data, so the real value might be smaller.

(I think the problem is not south China sea but is around the myanmar borders)

that's what all of the tension is over lately, India's oil explorations

But I don't see India confronting Russia or China directly, just my 2cents.

I DO see them siding with the west in the case of a global conflict though.

originally posted by: Vector99
In recent times there is nothing that demands US dollars be used, unless the seller demands US dollars as payment.

Exactly. Who else apart Venezuela, Iran and now China and Russia are accepting different currencies from USD?

Just the same as the US would have for intervening in Ukraine per this

Which is not in Syria. Also despite the circus we are seeing, I didn't see a fake Syrian vote anywhere.

That would be rather arrogant of him, the west has a lot invested in that pipeline. Don't be surprised if Russia shows up and suddenly all the rebels have SAMs.

Russia has a lot more and a lot earlier invested there, so how do we deal with this? They aren't arming rebels, they are arming the Syrian army, to be precise they never stopped providing military assistance since the conflict started.

No, you said
"The COMEX now shows that 1 ounce of their paper-gold is worth 200 real gold ounces. And these are official data, so the real value might be smaller."

1 ounce COMEX gold = 200 real gold. Isn't that 1/200 of real gold? Anyway independently of my wording, is it clear what I meant now?

that's what all of the tension is over lately, India's oil explorations

Thanks for the link, I did miss this news.

I DO see them siding with the west in the case of a global conflict though.

It's a matter of what extent. India is becoming increasingly pressured by the "global market" for example this post shows some of the TPP-style policies. This may be connected to the need for them to go find an oil field in the South China Sea (thus your link about oil disputes makes perfect sense).

India has also a growing nationalist movement and an increasing "interests" in boosting the military sector. What active role would it have in a western coalition where there is no Pakistani enemy? I see them increasing their presence in the east where chinese smugglers foment the terrorists, but I also think India would try to keep a foot in the BRICS shoe and a foot in the western one. I guess it depends on what is promised and what are the stakes in engaging openly against a military power superior to them.
I do agree it would surely provide assistance to the west, but I also think they would have a bigger role in an arabian conflict than a SE one.

There are a few links in regards to gold that better defines the gold market situation.
From Ronan Manly and from Koos Jansen on bullionstar blogs(EDIT: I suggest to watch Bloomberg interview to Peter Hambro linked in the article)

Petropavlovsk Chairman and Co-Founder Peter Hambro discusses gold at Bloomberg Television. He, like Manly, concludes there is very little physical gold left in London. From Mr Hambro:

My baseline is they [the Chinese] have been buying and the Indian have been buying in enormous quantities. It’s virtually impossible to get physical gold in London to ship to those countries. We get permanent requests from Russia, would we please sell our physical gold to India and China. Because there is no physical, only endless promises. And I really worry that the market, that paper market, could be stamped on and people will say “sorry we’ll have a financial close out”, and it’s all over.

Perhaps this quote explains why UK gold export directly to China in June was not a net outflow from the UK – because there is little gold left in London (Manly, Hambro) and thus the UK had to ramp up import from the US in June to send forward to China.

EDIT: I suggest to watch Bloomberg interview to Peter Hambro linked in the article

Maybe this was China/Russia plan from the start? Collapse the paper-gold market?
There's also another series of events that points out we could be close to a gold bubble:
Soros dumps gold futures Feb 2015

Soros Fund Management sold 200,000 shares of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) during the fourth quarter, eliminating its position in the second-largest gold miners ETF, according to a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The hedge fund also reduced its position in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), the largest gold miners ETF, by 27% while eliminating its position in GDX call options. Soros Fund Management also eliminated its position in Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), GDX’s second-largest holding. The firm held nearly 484,000 shares of Barrick at the end of the third quarter.

and then

Soros buy 1.9 shares from Barrick Miners

And while Soros added to his gold positions, mega hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by longtime gold bull John Paulson, cut its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust by 1 million shares to 9.2 million shares in the second quarter according to the 13F-HR filing. SPDR Gold Trust is the world's biggest gold-backed ETF.

Soros wants to exploit the market to get gold mining companies at discounted price? Wouldn't be surprising. But must also mean he is privy (or smelling) some big change in the paper-gold supply and demand capacity.
Seems like gold is often downplayed, but rather important behind the curtain.