Why The Republicans Will Never Win Another National Election

I came across this article that dates back to April of this year. The source is biased, of course, and begins by talking about the GOP refusing to evolve it's platform on issues like abortion and gay marriage. While I do agree on that sentiment, that is not what I wish to speak about.

The article goes on to discuss the electoral votes needed to win the presidency and how the republicans may already be losers on that end.

GOP strategists must have nightmares about this fact: the Democratic nominee, based on the most recent demographic and electoral results, waltzes into any national election with the states needed to total 246 electoral votes. If you think you can make the electoral math work to the favor of the Republicans, go to this web site–www.270 towin.com–and knock yourself out trying to find a combination that comes close. Go ahead, I’ll wait for you.

Which states is the Democratic candidate virtually guaranteed to win? Here’s a list, along with the electoral votes they hold as their prize:
CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RI (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).

In case, like me, you don’t excel at math, allow me to assure you that the calculations–done by a friend of mine who is a CPA–reveal that 246 is 91 percent of 270.

So a Democrat needs only find 24 more electoral votes to win the election. Considering that Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia (among others) are also trending to the Dems means that 270 is pretty much a cinch.

Source

This is a very interesting way to look at it and when we view the electoral vote count from the previous election at 270to win, we see that the democrats blew the republicans out of the water with well over 300 electoral votes.

I believe this will be a tight race all the way down to the wire, but the author of the article makes a very salient point that if we look at this as is, electorally-speaking, the republicans are already at a huge disadvantage and must make a much bigger effort to not only make headway in states that are "blue", but overcome the perception that have become commonplace for the party.

What do you think? Are the republicans doomed or are these numbers "off"?

a reply to: introvert

I noticed this after the last election as well. The CURRENT Electoral college breakdown does look very bad for the Republicans. But it all changes, Blue today, Red tomorrow.

Ronald Reagon won with California. Look back and see the states Bush won when he was elected twice in a row... Things change fairly quickly in politics and thinking a blue state will remain a blue state is just silly.

The Election is a year and some change away. A year ago, everyone KNEW Hillary Clinton was going to be the next President hands down.


ETA:

I took the challenge



Also could switch NM for NH... Still that would be a possible GOP win.

a reply to: introvert

Well considering how much good both parties have done for the nation not sure it would matter either way at this point. But politics evolve over time, while neither party ever does much good, and neither party deserves respect I will go out on a limb and say the prediction probably isn't accurate. Then again maybe the republican party goes bye bye and is replaced by a new one. As long as the parties can sell the illusion of caring to various segments and the masses willing buy the illusion, it will probably be back and forth

I think Jeb has as much chance as anyone in the coming election.

But I can't say the numbers are off, just that they may change in the coming months.

Why The Republicans Will Never Win Another National Election

After too much Reagan-Reagan, Bush-Bush, bush-bush, what else they got to offer? More Bush?

It won't be they put a democrat in the house because people want one, it will be because nobody wants more warmongering, even though thats what we are headed for, especially if its Hillary.

Lest see, we gave them a black man, lets give them a woman.

It doesn't matter who's in the WhiteHouse, or how voting goes, there will be no change, only forward.

Wasn't it just a few years ago they said we would never hold the majority a gain either?


Unless sanders takes the nomination. The dems have absolutely no hope this election

We've had 8 yrs if Democrat/ progressive policies and the country is tired of it

I feel your wrong in this one. But that's my opinion

Still I say Bernie is their only hope

Lol and if it's him or trump I vote democrat

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
Wasn't it just a few years ago they said we would never hold the majority a gain either?


Unless sanders takes the nomination. The dems have absolutely no hope this election

We've had 8 yrs if Democrat/ progressive policies and the country is tired of it

I feel your wrong in this one. But that's my opinion

Still I say Bernie is their only hope

Lol and if it's him or trump I vote democrat

I'm not so sure. Hillary is polling well ahead of each republican candidate and even Sanders beats them in a few. The idea that the country is tired of Democrat/progressive policies is an over-generalization by people on the right because they want to justify their beliefs and project them on to the rest of the voting populace.

Obviously, according to the numbers, 50% or more of the country are going to vote for the democrats.

Put a Hispanic on the Republican ticket, Rubio for instance
and all bets are off. Just swing a quarter of those votes and it wouldn't
even be close. That is just one way.
But your point is taken.

At this point I don't think it much matters who the president is, either democrat or republican. Big money is vested in both parties; although a preferred ticket has been discussed among republican wallsreet elite.

To them a Clinton or a Bush serves they're interests just fine or even Biden. In my opinion, big money candidates, whether from either party; serve corporate interests.

Source

“If it turns out to be Jeb versus Hillary we would love that and either outcome would be fine,” one top Republican-leaning Wall Street lawyer said over lunch in midtown Manhattan last week. “We could live with either one. Jeb versus Joe Biden would also be fine. It’s Rand Paul or Ted Cruz versus someone like Elizabeth Warren that would be everybody’s worst nightmare.”

Go Bernie!!!

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
Wasn't it just a few years ago they said we would never hold the majority a gain either?


Unless sanders takes the nomination. The dems have absolutely no hope this election

We've had 8 yrs if Democrat/ progressive policies and the country is tired of it

I feel your wrong in this one. But that's my opinion

Still I say Bernie is their only hope

Lol and if it's him or trump I vote democrat

Which polling results did you build this opinion from? Or are you just taking it straight from the right wing blogosphere?

originally posted by: CharlieSpeirs
I think Jeb has as much chance as anyone in the coming election.

But I can't say the numbers are off, just that they may change in the coming months.

Can't forget about that Bush family! Let them slip through the cracks and they bite you in the arse, every time....

I think history would agree with the statement as well....

Why the Republicans might never win another national election:
ABC
AP
CBS
CNN
MSNBC
NBC
Newsweek
New York Times, Time, Washington Post, etc etc etc.

the ignorance / misinformed state of the US public is appalling.

Totally a function of the turnout. There are way more registered Democrats than Republicans. If the Democrats turn out, they win. If they don't, they lose. This is why Republicans love inclement weather on election day.

Remember in '80 when Carter gave his concession speech at about 6PM Pacific Time before the polls closed? A whole bunch of Democrats west of the Rockies didn't bother to vote that year and a lot of Republicans were swept in giving them the US Senate majority for the first time since Eisenhower's first term.

The Republicans will win this time. Because Trump will help them win.
Trump is like no Republican we have seen before, so it negates anything that has happened in the past

originally posted by: BlueAjah
The Republicans will win this time. Because Trump will help them win.
Trump is like no Republican we have seen before, so it negates anything that has happened in the past

I think it's more likely that if Trump has any measurable effect on the Republican results, it's going to be a negative one.

a reply to: yeahright

Good point. That is one of the reasons suggested as to why the republicans do well in off-year elections. The democrats don't go to the polls as much in off-years and it results in more republicans getting in to office.

States may change Electoral College system

Through gerrymandering the republicans took back the congress. Let's look at 2012 Michigan, my state, democratic candidates won the the popular congressional vote, yet republicans won 2/3 of the congressional seats through republican gerrymandering. Michigan is trying to divide their electoral college votes by house district. This would have given Romney a 2/3 victory over Obama, who easily won the popular vote.

The plan for republicans is much the same in presidential elections. Divide the electoral votes in purple states.
These initiatives are being looked at in Ohio Pennsylvania and Florida as well.

Presidential elections should be popular vote!

People were saying much the same thing back when Reagan won. The Republicans will never win ... The Republicans will never win ...

Now you are correct in that the current entity called the Republican party may not win, but it is naïve to assume that means the Democrats as they are now will keep on winning unchecked. There is a lot of anger at the political establishment, and the Democrats as they are are as much a part of that as the Republicans ever were.

Like it or not, people are pissed, and it will show up sooner or later to the detriment of the Washington establishment. The fact that the top pollers for the Reps currently are some combo of Trump, Carson, Fiorina, and Cruz - three outsiders and one guy who is inside, but absolutely loathed by the establishment, speaks to that.

originally posted by: BlueAjah
The Republicans will win this time. Because Trump will help them win.
Trump is like no Republican we have seen before, so it negates anything that has happened in the past

The last poll I looked at has Hillary almost 20 points over Trump. If Trump gets the nod, the republicans lose. If Trump goes third party, the Republicans lose. If Trump simply backs out the republicans have a better shot, but it still does not look very good.

I also believe if Trump or Bush get the nomination it will motivate Democrats to get to the polls. Trump is a clown and has no business representing us, and we all have a bad taste in our mouths after W.

a reply to: introvert

So you're hoping for another 8 years of high unemployment, record numbers on food stamps, a disjointed and weak foreign policy and a poor economy?