Earth Will Only Have 12 Hours To Prepare For Massive Solar Storm

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Trains will be disrupted, power will go out, satellite signals will go wonky - that’s what we have to look forward to when the sun next has a melt down, and we’re unlikely to get more than 12 hours warning.

In a new government document, the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills has laid out its Space Weather Preparedness Strategy, outlining the risks of unsettled space weather as well as what it plans to do about them.

The document explains that the worst case scenario is a ‘coronal mass ejection’ - huge eruptions on the sun which cause parts of its corona to detach. The corona is the pearly glow around the sun that you can only usually see during a total solar eclipse, made up of plasma and rarefied gases.

The worst case scenario is based on the Carrington event of 1859, which caused solar-flare related x-rays and radiation storms. In 2015, a similar event could cause the national grid to fail, satellite operations to shut down, increased radiation on flights and upset to electronic systems.

The report suggests that there are three things the country needs to do to prepare for such an event: improve alerts and warnings, update power and communication infrastructure with failsafe backups and have a plan in place to deal with the effects should they come to pass.

Yes, a severe geomagnetic event could be bad.
Any comments of your own?

a reply to: Kromlech

Agree with Phage, you need to elaborate.
- Do you know something we don't?
- Do you anticipate one in the near future?

a reply to: Kromlech

My understanding is not what it should be, but surely 12 hours should be plenty of notice? If the power is turned off, there should be no damage to the grid. Whilst this may cause issues for the few hours we are affected, it is a much better option than leaving the power on and suffering massive damage to the grid.

Increased radiation on airplanes thoughis not really we can do anything about, short of cancelling flights for the duration of the storm.

originally posted by: Phage
Yes, a severe geomagnetic event could be bad.
Any comments of your own?

Yes, it's nice to know there's at least a 12-hour warning...

a reply to: Kromlech
With the Carrington event it would have been 18.
If they knew what was going on, that is. That's how long it was between the flare(s) and the geomagnetic storming.

Turning the grid off would work pretty well though.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Kromlech
With the Carrington event it would have been 18.
If they knew what was going on, that is. That's how long it was between the flare(s) and the geomagnetic storming.

Turning the grid off would work pretty well though.

Honestly that is something I have not heard before. I have heard that cars even turned off would have their electronics fried without a Faraday cage or the battery disconnected ?..

There have been attempts with legislation to harden our electric grid and C2C has been pushing for action but so far crickets.

Seriously if by turning off the power suppliers would preclude the frying of the transformers then prior warning of that time frame would certainly work..

I question if that would work out of my own ignorance ?

a reply to: 727Sky

I have heard that cars even turned off would have their electronics fried..

You heard wrong.

There have been attempts with legislation to harden our electric grid and C2C has been pushing for action but so far crickets.

The problem with that plan is cost/risk. It would cost a lot but the risk is very difficult to assess. That geomagnetic storm could happen next month or not for a hundred years.

I question if that would work out of my own ignorance ?

Very simply put, the problem is that a severe geomagnetic storm induces very low frequency voltage fluctuations in powerlines. So low in frequency that they are, essentially DC currents. DC currents wreak havoc with AC transformers. Turn the AC off and it's no big deal. Except for a lot of pissed off customers.

So, if it wasn't for Tesla, there would be no problem at all.

I think we all already know that a severe solar event could be bad...

a reply to: Kromlech

Im not suggesting a storm of sufficient magnitude could not cripple or effect our electrical grids and communications networks but my understanding is that these storms happen due to our Sun's solar cycle(22 years). The point being that we have had electronic and electrical equipment in place regarding our infrastructure for quite sometime now, certainly a whole lot longer than 22 years which seems to be functioning just fine.

a reply to: 727Sky

Please see the simple NASA link below:

What impact do solar flares have on human activity?

Another major problem that has occurred during geomagnetic storms has been the temporary loss of electrical power over a large region. The best known case of this occurred in 1989 in Quebec. High currents in the magnetosphere induce high currents in power lines, blowing out electric transformers and power stations. This is most likely to happen at high latitudes, where the induced currents are greatest, and in regions having long power lines and where the ground is poorly conducting.

Surely therefore, if the power is off, there are no high currents to be induced within the power lines? Obviously, this wouldn't be perfect but it must be better than leaving the power on and letting large parts of the grid to fry?

originally posted by: Phage
You heard wrong

Actually YOU heard wrong

car has plenty of long wires

What do you think would happen to alternator alone

Internet is becoming loud and useless

a reply to: Kromlech

Why do you believe government would warn you at all ?

I just read that the chance of polar geomagnetic storms has been downgraded to 30%.

Sort of good news

Edit : The entire event is now being reported as below the scales

www.spaceweatherlive.com...

a reply to: justQ

What do you think would happen to alternator alone

Nothing.
What do you think the wavelength of a geomagnetic fluctuation is?

a reply to: justQ

Long wires, as in kilometres long, not metres.

Or for the unwashed, miles long, not feet.

originally posted by: 727Sky

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Kromlech
With the Carrington event it would have been 18.
If they knew what was going on, that is. That's how long it was between the flare(s) and the geomagnetic storming.

Turning the grid off would work pretty well though.

Honestly that is something I have not heard before. I have heard that cars even turned off would have their electronics fried without a Faraday cage or the battery disconnected ?..

There have been attempts with legislation to harden our electric grid and C2C has been pushing for action but so far crickets.

Seriously if by turning off the power suppliers would preclude the frying of the transformers then prior warning of that time frame would certainly work..

I question if that would work out of my own ignorance ?

This wouldn't affect cars. Cars don't usually have long wirings to act as antennas. The wires need to be really long to be affected by solar storms. Of course solar storms cause more damage if the wirings are long, like electrical grids, USA particularly. And solar storms also affect gas lines, specially those extending from east to west. Geomagnetic storms generate current in long pipelines, which can make them explode. Alaskan pipelines are particularly vulnerable to geomagnetic storms.

But satellites are in greatest danger. Can you imagine what would happen if all the GPS and communications satellites would be fried? There is no way to protect these if massive solar storm hits. After the solar storms, their electronics would be completely fried, rendering them useless space junk. And the people in ISS would die from radiation poisoning, Like satellites, ISS would be useless after such event, in time it would fall and burn in Earth's atmosphere.

a reply to: Phage

Thanks for the reply an info.

Thebel that is more along the lines I have heard.. Thanks for the input.

a reply to: Thebel

There is no way to protect these if massive solar storm hits.

Actually, they are quite well protected. They are designed that way.
A solar flare (not to be confused with a CME) can cause increased ionization which can lead to interruptions in communications (including GPS) without damaging equipment, but those effects are short lived.

Most utilities are not going to do anything to prepare, and just do controlled shutdown and starups when the event occurs, if it occurs. The cost to harden the grid by installing filters other "ideas" is more expensive than waiting it out. Most utility money (capital) is being spent on the smart grid/AMI and cyber security threats right now.

The biggest problem of waiting and "turning it off" is with the weak security most utilities have, a foreign power could hack the system and delay or cause problems in the turn off procedure, thus potentially causing the system to fry. Cyber security is a far more real, and far more dangerous threat than the sun.