NEWS: 9.0 Quake, Tsunamis Strike SE Asia - 275,000+ Dead

I notice also that different reporting authorities come up with different #'s for the earthquakes. USGS seems to report higher value earthquakes for this series, the mediteranean watch station was the first to report first 16 aftershocks as above 6.0.

It blows my mind, not the death toll (I kinda saw that coming) but the sheer number of back to back earthquakes. The world shook for two full days, although there were only 14 separate events on the 27th of december, the 26th brough 27 different earthquakes, more than 1 per hour. I've been staring at the live map, wondering how many days before the whole region is wiped. So far there has been very little activity in Alsaska and California, which is good. I was terribly worried that Cali might start to rumble, and then Yellowstone could yawn and eat us all for a snack upon waking.

The numbers are still so low, I think someone mentioned the large area as being a hinderance for rescuers..How many square miles have been affected? Looking at the impact map on iris.edu it appears to be a very large region. Perhaps thousands of square miles? Realistically, the rescuers will never make it to all affected areas. The tourists might get airlifted out, but what about the dwellers of those dozens of small islands? They're probably all going to die, if not from injuries then from water contamination, disease, and starvation.

I think the smart thing to do would be to gather census data on all those outlying islands, and cut them by about a third. There's your number of dead. So many houses were destroyed in the initial waves, all those additional ones caught people outside their homes.

The situation brings to mind the scenario of the Canary Islands volcano blowing, causing a tsunami that would wipe clean most of the east coast. I imagined that the next time I saw a city under water, it would be Miami, not Phuket. A shame too, I really dig their piercing festival.

Whilst this wont answer your question with specifics WyrdeOne. I will say that yesterday morning on Sky News, they had some professor from the a center in Edinburgh, Scotland on doing interviews. This centre amongst other things studied earthquakes and such, so I guess you could say he was an expert. Anyways he did say that we could expect to see aftershocks for a few days and possibly even a couple of weeks that were directly related to the 9.0 quake.

I would guess that Banshee will come back and say that whilst unusual, (There was a diiferent quake on the 23rd Dec, measuring 8.1 that had no aftershocks) It isn't unprecedented.


edit:-

I did forget to add, another thing he did say is that these aftershocks should taper off over time. This didnt seem to happen, however no earthquakes have been reported in the last 10 hours. Maybe we are over the worst of this particular Earth Movement.

[edit on 28-12-2004 by Slowpoke]

www.sciencedaily.com...:

Better forecasting of damaging earthquake swarms may now be more possible after scientists helped to confirm a theory by USGS seismologist James H. Dieterich of how and why swarms occur. The scientists investigated a "super-swarm" of earthquakes offshore Tokyo that struck in the summer of 2000. The research, by Geological Survey of Japan scientist Shinji Toda, USGS scientist Ross Stein, and Geographical Survey Institute of Japan scientist Takeshi Sagiya, will be the cover article in the Sept. 5 edition of Nature. Both Japanese authors were recent post-doctoral scientists at the USGS in Menlo Park, California. In the super-swarm of earthquakes the authors studied, a staccato-like burst of 7,000 magnitude-3 or larger shocks occurred over 2 months about 100 miles south of Tokyo, underneath the Pacific Ocean. There were 45 magnitude-5 shocks and 5 magnitude-6 shocks.

"We believe the total energy released during the Izu islands earthquake swarm is the highest ever recorded," said Stein. "The energy released by this swarm was almost ten times greater than the 1980-81 Long Valley, Calif., swarm; the rate of energy release is 100 times higher."

Earthquake swarms, Stein noted, do not exhibit "typical" earthquake behavior in which a mainshock occurs, followed by a series of aftershocks that become less frequent with time. Instead, in a swarm there is a sustained high rate of earthquakes. Eventually, the seismic action stops or peters out. Swarms are most common in volcanic areas, such as in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Yellowstone, and parts of northern and southern California. However, such swarms also may occur on tectonic faults, including California's famed San Andreas. Why swarms occur has always been a mystery

If the part that I emboldened was the biggest "swarm" ever......this takes the damn cake.

1960 - Santiago, Chile - magnitude 9.5 - 2,000+ deaths
"Dozens" of >mag 5+ aftershocks
(can't find any more data on this one!)

1964 - Prince William Sound (Alaska) - magnitude 9.2 - 125 deaths
11 aftershocks mag 6+ in the 24 hours following the mainshock
9 aftershocks mag 6+ in the 3 weeks following the mainshock
Thousands of aftershocks mag 5 aftershocks

1811 -- New Madrid Fault Line (Missouri) - est magnitude 8.0 - unknown deaths
2 aftershocks, est mag 8+ in the 24 hours following the mainshock
Near-continuous strong aftershocks over the next 3 months (no exact data available)
Very strong aftershock 3 weeks after the mainshock (no est mag available)
est mag 8.4 aftershock ~6 weeks after the mainshock
est mag 8.8 aftershock ~3 months after the mainshock (this quake reportedly lasted for *hours*)
Thousands of aftershocks over the next 6 months

2003 - Bam, Iran - magnitude 6.7 - ~30,000 deaths
List of all aftershocks
+++some people can't get the above link to load. Here is a re-hosted data table

******************

Okay, I went with a few of the better-known quakes that were similar in magnitude. Unfortunately hard data isn't easy to come by, but....

Overall, I think this number of aftershocks is completely normal.
The magnitude of them, though, seems stronger than history shows is "average." It seems similar to the New Madrid quake(s) of 1811-1812, but even that data is largely supposition.

To be honest, I think this quake wasn't quite your run of the mill tremblor.
It's not apocolyptic, but it is .... "different."


[edit on 28-12-2004 by Banshee]

Any truth to the story that the original quake caused the earth to wobble on its axis? This is a very serious event, i think we can expect alarmist's to shout "the end is nigh". Makes me wonder thats for sure. My prayers go out to all victims everywhere. The death toll seems to be rising dramatically, this may prove to be the worst natural disaster in recorded history since pompei perhaps! Good work with the updates folk.

Thanks for doing so much legwork (keyboard jockeying?) Banshee. How do I applaud you for that?

We're not alone in thinking that this is unusual, that's for sure. What bothers me most, like you said, is the high average magnitude of the aftershocks. Usually, aftershocks have an average magnitude of 3 or 4, this earthquake averages out at about a 5.5 or a six, depending on whose numbers you trust. Awesome data you provided though, thanks again!

I'm trying right now to sort through the numbers on this quake, find some sort of happy meidan between USGS and conflicting sources. Also, have you heard any report on the total number of tidal waves in the last two days? I would estimate at least 10, but I've only been able to find accounts of two.

The live tracker at Iris.edu is my new permanent background, LOL. I know this wasn''t the big one, but if the plates moved sufficiently, and if you believe Drudge they did, there could be serious consequences half way across the world. It takes time, I think, for the ground to settle, but if california is hit at a 6 or above in the next days or weeks, I'll be expecting another sequence like we saw off the coast of Sumatra.

Also, Banshee, do you believe the numbers reported for the Maldives are conservative at all? I seem to remember earlier in this post Indigo claimed census figures from 94 placed the population of the Maldives at 250,000 +

Many of the Maldive islands were under water, and continue to be out of contact. Why is it taking so long to get those big numbers out of there? Are they only reporting the deaths of foreigners who have loved ones to report them missing to the embassy staff of wherever? How many natives were unaccounted for before the disaster. Who knows..

Whoa....Jet Li was injured in the tsunami. He was listed as missing for a time but seems to be okay.
www.seven.com.au...

Anyone ever heard of the Munich Group??

I just had this thought, maybe the time came for a definitive display of power. Hit the powerful and influential right where it hurts, their favorite vacation spot.

I know I'm just speculating, but I will say this, tectonic manipulation has been possible in theory for some time, and all the arrays necessary to produce the kind of effects we're seeing are in place.

Anyone know what the status is of the Australian fleet? They were violating Indonesia's waters last time I heard two days ago. Do you suppose they turned tail and fled, or have they stayed to help? I'm still picking through the tangle of stories, but I'm interested in opinions on how international politics will be effected by this event.

Reports indicate that 800 bodies were found in Khao Lak, Thailand.

The bodies were found in a hotel frequented by French tourists. No indication whether they're french nationals or not.

Well the shaking has stopped for the most part, but the seismo's are still bugging. Ripples or precursors?

Would the position of the moon have anything to do with the shocks? I was just noticing that the tremors stopped as the sun rose on Thailand today. Maybe there are more in the wings for afternoon/evening, but things are quiet for now.

Also, I know the whole planet x thing was blown out of proportion and debunked from a hundred angles, but wouldn't this latest, otherwise inexplicable event, serve to coroborate that story somewhat? If the iron deposits in the marianas trench were indeed beginning to lock on to planet X, then some of the worst stresses would be at the seams on the other side of the world, namely, the region that was hit. Just looking to hear some opinions as to what, if anything unusual, caused this seeming explosion of quakes. We've heard gas pocket, usual activity, even nuke or earthquake ray, but none of those theories really resonate with me. Just my gut I guess, but I'm searching for a better explanation.

Originally posted by WyrdeOne

Also, I know the whole planet x thing was blown out of proportion and debunked from a hundred angles, but wouldn't this latest, otherwise inexplicable event, serve to coroborate that story somewhat?

No, not in the least.
Let's not bring "Planet X" into this .... the only thing that could corroborate that idea is if someone actually saw this mystery planet floating around the solar system.

Earthquakes are normal. Tsunamis are normal. They are tragic, terrible events, but they happen all the time (geologically speaking). Some are worse than others, and some deviate from the "norm."
But I don't think a mysterious planet that no one's ever seen before has a thing to do with this one.

38.75 -122.73 This is the LAT/LONG for the 4.3 that hit N. California.

Anyone know the LAT/LONG of the Bohemian Grove? Could the 4.3 have been a warning to the elite? Don't mind me, spouting wild conjecture..
(Just try not to get any on ya' hehehe)

Okay guys, I've been holding off on doing this for about 12 hours now, but I think it's time to update the death toll.

sg.news.yahoo.com...

45,000 seems to be the next "official" number. It's been dropped here and there throughout the day, and now it's looking more like it's correct.

*sighs*

no one really knows what goes on in the earth's core though...has seismic activity been up unusually high lately as opposed to earlier years?

this recent catastrophe, the 8.1 quake between australia and antarctica, and the recent mt. st. helens activity are probably connected. is it not highly possible that an even greater quake is waiting to occur somewhere else in the world?

my gut's been telling me that something HUGE is coming soon...or maybe im crazy...either way...i like to believe my gut's never wrong...and right now...it says i'm hungry...and that ain't no lie

Originally posted by Banshee
Okay guys, I've been holding off on doing this for about 12 hours now, but I think it's time to update the death toll.

sg.news.yahoo.com...

45,000 seems to be the next "official" number. It's been dropped here and there throughout the day, and now it's looking more like it's correct.

*sighs*

I just got my morning news alert and they are reporting 25,000, but only seem to be including Indonesia. Sadly, I think Banshee is more on top of the real number and the situation.

Great job keeping us informed Banshee. Makes me wonder why I pay so much for cable at this point since the news is much more timely and indepth here. One can only hope this number has peaked but with so many still listed as missing it is doubtful.

Japan pledges 30 mill in relief
USA pledges 15 mill in relief
Australia pledges 10 mill in relief

A silent world watches as you give without concern but for the victims....
I thank those that contribute any aid they can on behalf of those now suffering.

It�s gonna go over 100k casualties in matter of few days..sad day in mankinds history.
-ap

Originally posted by CazMedia
Japan pledges 30 mill in relief
USA pledges 15 mill in relief
Australia pledges 10 mill in relief

A silent world watches as you give without concern but for the victims....
I thank those that contribute any aid they can on behalf of those now suffering.

I'm on the dole (40 pound a week) and I'm giving a measly �50 to Oxfam for this, but if everyone here can do the same at least we'll know that we've helped in some way.

China and the Uk are sending specialists and relief

Hundreds of Germans missing

SEVERAL hundred Germans are still missing in Thailand after their holiday resorts were battered by tidal waves triggered by an earthquake, tour operator Thomas Cook said today.

A company spokesman said it had been unable to contact about one-third of its nearly 1000 guests in the western resort areas of Phuket and Khao Lak since the quakes struck on Sunday.

Dozens of clients booked at the 319 room Sofitel Magic Lagoon Resort in Khao Lak, which was completely destroyed by the tsunamis, were also missing.

Link