China state paper warns of war over South China Sea unless U.S. backs down

a reply to: Zaphod58

Some areas?

You'd have to clarify that one. Without the nuclear factor, Russia is incapable of protecting their whole nation, especially in the east.

China, almost no oil/food reserves. Their location advantage regarding the South China Sea is well negated by the potential and actual allies surrounding that area, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, South korea...that's a lot of bases/supply locations available....

But, having said that, I don't underestimate them...on the other hand a decent bloody nose and might the Chinese regime fall???

a reply to: Greathouse

I was talking about using carriers for persistent force, and was referring to our carriers. Right now China can get fighters to the area, but they can't loiter in the area for long, like carrier based aircraft could.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I agree with your assessment about China. I was only stating that I didn't think US carriers would be needed. Clarkfield is a big place.

a reply to: nwtrucker

Both China and Russia are fielding 4.5 and 4.5+ generation aircraft. The two main fighters in the USAF fleet, and the backbone of any fight in the area are maybe 4.5 after upgrades, but they're also an average of 25-30 years old, as opposed to less than 10 for some of theirs.

Russia has, for a number of years, had a slight edge in missiles, including air to air. They already have an AESA missile about to enter testing, while the US has simply updated the AIM-120 in recent years.

a reply to: Greathouse

The problem with fixed bases though is they don't move. That means they're big sitting targets, with fixed runways. Hit those and you knock the base out. Knock out enough and you push the Allied forces back. The carriers give flexibility.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I get that, yet, it wouldn't take much of a F-22-F35 package stationed in Taiwan, et al, to negate that 'too close to parity'
for comfort situation.

Idle speculation on my part. if there's only drones/spy planes covering the new 'islands', there's not much to worry about.

If and when those flights become more than unarmed surveillance units, then we can sit up and take notice....

a reply to: Zaphod58

The advantage to fix bases are. They are a lot easier to repair, they have hardenstructures, and fixed defenses. If the United States air power is needed the airbases will not only be in the Philippines either. Anyway the war planing for China is already on the books. It will involve a blockade of the Straight's of Malacca where 75% of Chinese oil comes from. And there's not a whole hell of a lot China can do about that except possibly lob some missiles.

Hit a carrier it's out of operation most the times.

I hardly see any advantage to a airstrike, in being able to move 30 knots in the face of a mach one fighter versus being stationary with triple the fire power.

a reply to: nwtrucker

There's no way they'd put them on Taiwan. Too close and too vulnerable.

But just look at the numbers. All 185 F-22s won't be there. Let's say they send 90, which even that would be high. That's 270 missiles per sortie, if they all launch at once. China has almost twice that in J-7s they could sacrifice against them, and then sneak more advanced aircraft in closer to take on the F-22s.

a reply to: Greathouse

No, they won't be only in the Philippines but the further out you go the longer your pilots have to fly to get to the target area, and the faster you wear them out.

Any fight in the area will be a combination of carriers and land bases. As I said, the carriers give you flexibility. It allows a pincer attack with carrier based aircraft coming in from one direction, and land based aircraft from another. The more fronts you can force a fight on the more you stretch their resources.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Sure, if all the J-7s were in the region. If China only sent J-7s then the carrier based 18s would eat them up. Those sorties would rotate almost non-stop, as well.

I agree with your point on Taiwan, maybe 4 units on 24/7 idle that could bug out as fast as be used offensively...

When the F-35 numbers start increasing faster, combined with a new president, China's moving now makes sense.

Their window of opportunity may close up fairly quickly if they hesitate too long. Assuming they're as smart as Putin and don't push too far, too fast.

a reply to: nwtrucker

It doesn't have to be J-7s. All they have to do is give enough targets that you HAVE to focus on them, and bring your bigger guns in behind them.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: criticalhit

Well if we're going on historic claims we better start redrawing maps and giving territory back to the countries that previously had claims on them.

I'd say wrong.

China is not a nation that is basing a historic claim on absolute bs, this isn't the Bible we are talking about, this isn't a nation that fell or kept a name but is an entirely different people or was conquered and now a very small number of people remain etc etc et al...

When it comes to both China and India

They've been around a long time. The History matters

No other nations on Earth can truly, truly make that claim over thousands of years

a reply to: criticalhit

And it doesn't matter anymore. There are now nations that are in those areas that have claims on those resources. So according to you, it's OK for those nations to exist, but since another nation has a historic claim on the resources near them, they don't get those resources?

Yes China once had that territory. It doesn't now. China ratified the UNCLOS treaty which denies historic claims to territory.

www.worldaffairsjournal.org...

a reply to: Zaphod58

Any fight in the area will be a combination of carriers and land bases. As I said, the carriers give you flexibility. It allows a pincer attack with carrier based aircraft coming in from one direction, and land based aircraft from another.

It just seems to me that pincher movements would be easy seeing as China is surrounded on three sides anywhere in the South China Sea.

a reply to: Greathouse

All it would take is being denied the use of a base by a nation and it would be much harder. Carriers prevent that from happening.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: criticalhit

This is not about history, much of which is legend, but about international law. China, like Russia, is taking advantage of the fact that the United States can no longer project power abroad. The American Empire has fallen and the vultures are swooping in. Those two wannabe superpowers better enjoy their moment in the sun while they can. Twenty years from now everyone will be blaming them for everything that is wrong with the world, just as they have been blaming America for the past fifty years and Britain before that.

You're right it's "not about history", there is no "legend" in this case just well kept documents written in a continuous language by a people that drew equally as well kept maps and are sitting in the exact same spot the whole time...

China never went anywhere

It's amazing, the way westerners can be, even your "synopsis of history" is written from a pov of someone (not singling you out) who has trouble in a real way with the issue...

as in... "in 20 years people will be looking at them"... No they wont

The US "Can't"... wrong we are just not going to be no 1, that's not an invasion or an inability to project power the fall of an empire even... it's just no 2

"The vultures are swooping in" No they aren't lol...or well maybe they are for "The Philippines" which... again kind of doesn't real exist except on paper as an invention of ours, or for Taiwan which again... is the Confederate Army in Puerto Rico lol... or Brunei... a Rich guys over sized house...

As an American with such a short culture to date...

I don't think you were raised to "see or feel it" and the assumptions are kind of goofy in regards to who is a "culture" or has an "actual history" and is in it for the Long Haul

America is "Real" it will go up and down, expand, contract fight wars go on to reach even higher heights and lower lows and it will have a median place it occupies over time, for example... even if the US breaks up for a time... everyone who isn't a nut will know the 13 colonies were ours the people we displaced are for all intents and purposes never coming back...

Ditto for China

That's not the case for Brunei for the Philippines, Taiwan these aren't "cultures" of their own they are "inventions" borders drawn between the waxing and waning of giants, the expansion and contraction of others creates them. Politics made flesh, no life of their own, no will of the people who would readily drift away to elsewhere. America Breaths it's chest expanded all the way across the Pacific, China breathes it's Chest will stop inflating at the edges of places like New Zealand maybe....

Taiwan is a piece of China where the US overlapped it and European Colonialism overlapped it, so is the Philippines for all intents and purposes China is an ocean whose waves periodically wash over everything around it

a reply to: criticalhit

I guess so. It's the same people. Not the same govt. or empires or kingdoms or even nation. In my opinion. China the "1000 year empire" ended after the Ming Dynasty was overthrown by the Manchu and CHing. Those GUys really, really dropped the ball. Then there was all the unpleasentness of the 20th century there. Other than recent financial prosperity china hasn't been S!@# since the Ming. There was a reason why the whole world including their neighbors called China "the sick men of asia."

But yeah, I guess so they have a claim to those islands as much as say Italy having a claim to parts of Egypt and the middle east. I mean they did....once ....like 1000 years ago. Same people. Different regimes, govts, and culture.

a reply to: criticalhit

And China gave up their rights to the territory voluntarily. They had no interest in anything in that area until the resources were found. Then suddenly it was all about history.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I find that event highly unlikely in the South China Sea. As you've already said security negotiations between the countries and the US are already in process. Philippines has even open up some bases .

You are aware of the distances are n't you?


Every tactical advantage goes against China. Which is the very reason they are building bases in the area.

a reply to: Greathouse

Unlikely yes, stranger things have happened.

The distances are another reason carriers are needed. A fighter pilot that has to fly several hours just to get to where they may have to fight is going to be at a disadvantage to a pilot that only has to fly thirty minutes to get to the same area.