Bar extreme tory policy, Conservatives will have a long uncontested run until at least 2030

I wrote this in a post in my earlier thread The British public are better than this (another conservative victory), but I thought as it wasn't really picked up on it was worth reposting as a seperate thread.

It was one of many predictions I'm making based on the UK general election result.

1. Labour is in irreversible decline, and won't ever recover.

2. Green party members of parliament will increase at the next by election in two years as dissilusiined Labour
voters abandon ship.

3. 2020 election results will be the nail in the coffin for the Labour party... The Green party will take their place as the main party of the left.

4. By 2025, the The Greens and Labour will still be splitting the left wing vote, in a vicious fight for traditional working class constituencies... Greens will have a larger number of MPs by this election, than Labour, but Labour will still hold about a third of its former strongholds in the north... Greens will get MPs in Scotland by this time too, but the SNP will prove too powerful to be contested in Scotland... Therefore, Conservatives will win uncontested as middle England cowars from the prospect of a three way "chaotic coalition" between Greens SNP and Labour.

5. Because of their perceived economic success, the Conservatives will have won the heart of former swing voters in much of middle England... But with the rise of Green in Scotland and England, and the total Annihilation of Labour, by 2030, Greens could win a surprise victory, with seats in Wales, Scotland, they could outnumber the Conservatives by this time too, who would have become so intolerable to even the English that they will be finished as a party in England if Greens win.

6. If Greens win a majority in 2030, they will go uncontested until 2100 lol

originally posted by: funkadeliaaaa
Therefore, Conservatives will win uncontested as middle England cowars from the prospect of a three way "chaotic coalition" between Greens SNP and Labour.

Just a couple of questions for clarification.

1. Where is Middle England? Do you mean the whole of England or Fenny Drayton, which is (apparently) in the middle of England.
2. Do the English really cower at our politicians? I have not noticed it. In fact, the English have a habit of treating politicians and parties with contempt. Surely, the election of yesterday is proof of that.
3. The Greens do not have policies that make them remotely fit for purpose. Not a chance in hell will the Greens become a serious player unless they dump half the quackery. It is a shame that their share of the vote has not translated into more seats though.

I don't live in Britain.
Are Labor and Tory parties akin to Democrats and Republicans?

a reply to: paraphi

Hello twig.... Middle England is between Birmingham and London..Between gloustcershire and Clacton in sea... Got it? Hold on let me give you the GE coordinates... Just kidding,.. Kinda... They all vote conservative there anyway apparently.

Two

Camerins campaign involved scare tactics about the prospect of a colatition between a party that want to in his words bankrupt Britain (Labour) and a party that wants to break up Britain (the SNP)... He campaigned for a "stable Tory government" over a "coalition of chaos".... And as Labour is now in interminable decline, thus rhetoric won't be going away anytime soon. Expect it to be used at coming elections again and again.

Three, the Green party manifesto was the most detailed manifesto of any other political party.
Notnfit for purpose yet? Perhaps, but with only 1 MP, in Brighton, gaining there first seat in 2010, I don't think your claim that they are not yet fit to govern is very fair.... They have a long way to go. But with labour in decline, expect a perhaps more sensible but still radical Green party by 2017 and 2020

The idea that the Greens are not fit to govern is simply misinformation, even now.

a reply to: funkadeliaaaa

Totally disagree

Thanks to the FPTP system the possibility of the Greeds getting more than a hand full of MPs in the next 10-15 years is highly unlikely.

Further more I think you are forgetting that political parties have bounced back quite well in the past, Labour actually only suffered because of a strong SNP vote, had the SNP not been about to piss on their night then labour would have still lost but it would have been very close. They actually gained seats in England and got a decent shear of the votes.

a reply to: funkadeliaaaa
Another factor which could support your case.
If it were possible to put together some kind of working relationship, however informal and implicit, between Conservatives in England and SNP in Scotland, the combination could be dominant for a generation.
I do believe Cameron intends to try.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

They campaigned for a majority, campaigned for seats they were never going to win in Scotland, and they were punished... I see no future for the Labour Party in British politics. The Greens got a large number of votes this election and left wing voters will be so disillusioned by Labour, that by the next by-election they will join the Greens instead leading to a massive upswing for Greens with more MPs in 2017 and 2020, and even less for Labour...

originally posted by: IAMTAT
Are Labor and Tory parties akin to Democrats and Republicans?

No. Nothing like them.

The Republicans would be seen a extreme right in British politics and the democrats further right than the Conservatives in the UK. The US would probably refer to the Conservatives as socialists, in their unique misuse of that word.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin



The biggest increase percentage of votes went to UKIP?

a reply to: funkadeliaaaa

You seem to be making a lot of predictions...

They campaigned for a majority

Well yeah that's kind of the point...

campaigned for seats they were never going to win in Scotland, and they were punished

I don't really think that is very fair, even the SNP where shocked at their result.

Labour could bounce back in Scotland, Scottish politics is going through a very interesting time under the SNP, as the third major party now in Westminster its totally possible that the SNP would really piss off the Scottish voters, say for example if they do not provide a new referendum or that they just don't deliver for Scotland due to the constraints of Westminster. Labour would leap all over that in 2020 and we could see a full reversal.

I see no future for the Labour Party in British politics.

They still command the second largest part in Westminster and have loads of very experienced MPs. This could be labours making, 2020 could end up like 1997 for all we know. Labour could be about to elect a amazing leader, turn right back to working calls roots with lots of protesting and opposition towards to Torries. It is way to early to say that they are finished.

The Greens got a large number of votes this electio

yes but with the FPTP system that does not really matter, in lots of constituencies they are 20,000 votes behind, I don't even think they have a deposit on a marginal seat that they could target in 2020.

Sorry, I admire your passion for the Greens but you have to be realistic, with our current political system they are just not very likely to become a major opposition in the next 30 years

a reply to: DISRAELI

Well, whatever they do a deal on I hope most of all they do a deal to scrap trident...

If SNP MPs vote in favour of Trident renewal, they will prove themselves to be a party of cowardice and self interest, and deceit... If they stick to their word, economically, and ... Politically, its the best decision they could possibly make for Scotland,, and everyone benefits...

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Ok, and i appreciate your rational perspective... But the fact that you couldn't intuit a landslide for the SNP before it happened, shows how well you really understand the Zeitgeist...

Labour could bounce back in Scotland, Scottish politics is going through a very interesting time

My case in point: British politics is going through a very interesting time.

originally posted by: funkadeliaaaa
If SNP MPs vote in favour of Trident renewal,

I think that the SNP will (out of principle) never vote for a Tory policy regardless to whether it is good.

All they will do is attempt to derail, so that the SNP at Holyrood can blame Westminster for their poor performance. After all, they have full control of health in Scotland - and have a bigger budget thanks to the Barnett Formula, but the SNP have delivered a Scottish NHS that is inferior to English NHS.

It's all a game. For the SNP, the end game is independence and they will work to that goal and not the betterment of the UK as a whole. I hope I am proved wrong.

Oh, double post mayhem.

a reply to: funkadeliaaaa

If SNP MPs vote in favour of Trident renewal

Just never going to happen.

But the fact that you couldn't intuit a landslide for the SNP before it happened, shows how well you really understand the Zeitgeist...

It was pretty much expected that Labour were going to get hammered i Scotland.

45% voted for independence, you could guarantee that most of them would end up also voting SNP and given that the turn out is never going to be over about 70% that automatically makes the SNP the strongest party in Scotland.

56 seats, thats quite a surprise, I would have thought about 45-50 but yeah i understand the Zeitgeist enough that it was possible to say that the SNP were going to slaughter their opposition in Scotland.

a reply to: paraphi

If Scots want an uncontested SNP, they probably also want independence.

Another referendum is only fair, so let them have it. They will do better as our neighbour anyway. Scots clearly want Scots to decide what's right for Scotland. The English never had a right to take their sovreignity away in the first place. So good luck to the SNP.

As for the rest of the UK, we will be fine without Scotland.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Ànd with Labour now finished in Scotland, Labour voters are going to feel there's nothing in the Labour party worth voting for, no hope of a Labour majority ever again, and a better more left wing Green Party with increasing members that have far better policies for a modern wealthy civilised society like ours than any of the other parties will inevitably win their vote in the coming by-ekectiins and general elections, just as the SNP win Labour seats in Scotland.... Face it the Labour party is finished...

a reply to: funkadeliaaaa

If Scots want an uncontested SNP, they probably also want independence.

I voted for SNP, I voted against independence.

There are quite a lot of people i know in Scotland who have done the same.

A vote for the SNP was NOT a vote for independence.

Face it the Labour party is finished...

only according to you.

Labour has bounced back before and will probably end up doing it again.

It was those divide and conquer Zionist boys and girls of the SNP that cocked up the election big time, and opened the door to the Bullingdon Club chappies again.

a reply to: smurfy

it was those divide and conquer Zionist boys and girls of the SNP

The SNP, Zionist?

Really????

Alex Salmond to call for arms embargo on Israel

Shows how little you know about UK politics that in a election that also features the Tories and Labour, you call the SNP, "Zionist"