Dangerous Multi-day Severe weather outbreak for the Southern plains

There is a possibility for a very dangerous severe weather outbreak for Friday thru Sunday. This outbreak could cover a large area and affect a lot of people. I am going to post the Storm Prediction Centers maps with some of their explanations. These maps will likely change over time. Right now Saturday looks like it will be the worst of the 3 days.

Friday-

DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF NWRN TX...NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT PROFILES CHARACTERISTIC OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

Saturday-

ALL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.


Sunday-

SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES SPREADING EAST INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.

I will update the thread when maps change if I'm not at school when it happens.

Ayup. We'll be out at my folks' which is in the country. You can bet we'll have all eyes on the sky because we're in the danger zone.

Folks almost called it off, but they decided to go ahead and take the risk. After all, what are the odds? Right?

Severe weather and now a 4.0 earthquake today in Dallas.

What in the world is going on.

www.nbcdfw.com...

a reply to: usaman1983

The severe weather is easy. It's just spring in the Midwest.



You have a stalled front and all the usual little systems coming through along it. Almost always happens at least once a year.

I live in the little town that flooded on Monday. The local old timers said they haven't seen a storm like that in nearly 70 years.

I've never seen 6 inches of rain and 4 inches of marble size hail over a 2 hour period in my life. It was awesome. My trees look like its winter again, barely a leaf on either of them. I had 10 inches of standing water in my carport, and my Torino sank into the dirt. Had to have a 4x4 pull it out the next day.

I came out pretty lucky though. There were a couple of houses with nearly 4 feet of water in them.

One thing is for sure, if my little town doesn't stay on the right side of the dry line, it won't take very many inches to have an instant replay of Monday. There are a lot of pics out there, I just don't have the patience to post them from my phone.

www.everythinglubbock.com...

Yeah, if you get unlucky and those storms train right over you, you can get a lot really fast. We sandbagged our garage this evening just in case it rains heavy like that. The drive drain just can't cope and the last thing we need is a basement full of water.

a reply to: IngyBall

Yeah I'm in Missouri and I am keeping an eye on it,since its headed this way.
second line

well, here in the North East corner of SC... we have been experiencing for more than 24 hours already a developing-in-intensity 'Tropical Storm' system (expected to develop/last from thur-fri-sat=sun-Monday and dump over 4.1 inches of rain in that fortnight timespan

~good for my mini grape vineyard ~ but good for little else ...

I follow the activity on the live streams on tvn and as exciting it is to watch from
3000 miles away i feel for you people that have to live with these storms
up close n personal !

i hope the worst of it stays out in the open country where the harms minimal
You all stay safe.

Well, rain here tonight, but none yesterday, though there was plenty in the surrounding areas. I am not worried about flooding, since we are on a nice hill, but I will watch for heavy wind, just in case. Storm shades are nice, and the basement is ready. Be safe, peeps!

I hope for thunder and lightning, and no tornadoes, so I can watch the storms. Really love doing that!

a reply to: IngyBall

Not all that long ago, they couldn't tell us accurately if it was going to rain, snow or be sunny. Now all of a sudden, they know there will be "DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS"? Actually, the regular weather news can't miss. This kind of smells fishy. JMO

a reply to: ShayneJUK

I grew up with them. The news makes them look worse than they really are. Usually it's just a lot of noise and bother, exciting when it rolls through, but really here and gone.

It's very rare to have one that is truly dangerous to you if you're inside your house.

Earth communicates in a language that us not spoken, nor understood by many who have disconnect.

They use science and tools to TRY and understand and "read" earthly patterns..

Enjoy the ride, stay safe

files.abovetopsecret.com...
ran into this crazy hailstorm in colorado springs colorado today.

originally posted by: Bilk22
a reply to: IngyBall

Not all that long ago, they couldn't tell us accurately if it was going to rain, snow or be sunny. Now all of a sudden, they know there will be "DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS"? Actually, the regular weather news can't miss. This kind of smells fishy. JMO

It's because meteorologists get a crystal ball upon graduation. Similar to how politicians can predict the future.

Heads up! Those of you who are into a macabre spectacle just keep your eye on the NASCAR this Saturday and Sunday. It's being held at the Kansas Speedway, and last time it was race weekend and they had a severe weather setup like this one, an actual tornado came within easy sight of the track during a race. It quickly became amply obvious that the only real disaster plan they had out there was bend over, tuck your head between your legs and kiss your butt good-bye.

With conditions set up to offer a repeat performance, it's worth mentioning and keeping an eye on.

a reply to: ketsuko

And with all the money Nascar has it's really disappointing they don't have a better system in place. Time for the fans to raise hell and demand safer conditions I think.

a reply to: jaynkeel

Well, what do you do in a venue like that? There just is no really good solution honestly. I was at a football game when a really bad thunderstorm rolled in and the best they could do was get the crowd moved - 2/3 went under each side of the stadium and the last third had to walk over to the basketball stadium and shelter inside, but even so, if there had been a tornado, it's all horribly exposed. Too many people to move and not enough time.

Your safety plan there is that the actual odds of a tornado hitting the venue when it's actually full of people are so miniscule that the odds are your best defense. That won't save you if it actually does happen, but the chances of it happening ...

Gotta be a way. Although I understand where your coming from and the reality of it. Maybe reinforced corridors built into the complex with closeable doors, anything is better than nothing.

Your best survival plan in that situation is to have your OWN plan and not rely on someone else doing it for you. Know what the weather is going to be like, watch the weather closely and make a move to get the hell outa Dodge at a moments notice. Preferably well before the masses to the same.

btw, tornado on the ground SE of Childress, TX, tracking to just west of Vernon, TX south of the Red River. They will be in SW Oklahoma soon, many already have made it through the area and have dumped a metric ass load of rain in the area. We are still in a drought, a severe drought but it's been coming so hard and fast that most of the creeks are overflowing before getting to our reservoirs.

It looks to be right on top of Quanah, TX Hope everyone there is safe in their fraidy hole!