Yellowstone Apocalypse: Geologic Evidence Suggests There May Be Little or No Warning

In order to understand possible future scenarios of intracaldera volcanism at Yellowstone, we provide new insights on the generation and eruption of the youngest intracaldera rhyolitic magmas using quartz petrography, geochemistry, and geobarometry. We propose that magma ascent occurred rapidly from the source regions at 8–10 km to the surface along major regional faults, without storage at shallower depths.

www.geosociety.org...

So just HOW rapidly? As in minutes, hours, or days? Well I don't know. Don't have access to the full scientific paper.

But what this does tell us is that according to the evidence, previous eruptions have come from the deep, and come fast. "Without storage at shallower depths." They are able to discern these things from the different chemical makeups of the varying magma types at depth. Pressurization varies with depth, and therefore affects the chemical makeup. Once erupted, these chemical signatures reveal the approximate depth from which the magma came.

The rest of the Abstract:

These source regions coincide with the upper parts of the present-day imaged magma chamber, while the faults focus much of the present-day caldera unrest. Based on these combined observations, we propose that volcanism has a higher probability to resume in three fault-controlled NNW-trending lineaments, the first coinciding with the western caldera rim, the second lying across the central region of the caldera, and the third extending across the northeastern caldera. The first two lineaments focused recent intracaldera volcanism (174–70 ka), while the latter is the most active in terms of current caldera unrest. Future volcanism could include large-volume lava flows and phreato-magmatic rhyolitic eruptions. The identification of these three regions together with potentially rapid eruptive mechanisms may help to better define future monitoring efforts necessary to improve eruption forecasting in this vast area of volcanic unrest.

And so what all this translates to is that we have one volatile behemoth on our hands, that science is just beginning to get a grip on. And grip or no grip, what it means is that it could erupt at any time. To what extent there will be warnings through earthquakes and degassing is debatable. They still don't know how or if the chambers connect down there, because the resolution of the seismic tomography is still limited.

So when you see someone like me start a new thread for the latest Yellowstone earthquake swarm, don't go running to Mamma and complain that we're fearmongering on you again. Boo hoo.

NO, we're not fearmongering. That next earthquake swarm could be the START of something grotesquely horrific that will affect us all. Those 3 point something quakes could all of a sudden turn into 5+ quakes in the midst of that new swarm, and all hell brake loose. So the concern IS justified, even though over the years we have seen earthquake swarms, as well as uplift, come and go without further incident there.

Some of you may have heard that just recently a scientific paper was released that identified the sheer extent of a new, better-imaged deep magma chamber. Which is even bigger than the previously thought size, which was bigger than the before that previously thought size, which was bigger than the size they thought before that. Just how big it REALLY is appears to be somewhat of a mystery, because it keeps growing every time they "think" again with a new tomography study. *sigh*

In this abstract above, it says that "The identification of these three regions together with potentially rapid eruptive mechanisms may help to better define future monitoring efforts necessary to improve eruption forecasting in this vast area of volcanic unrest."

And to get more specific, what this means simply is where and how densely seismometers should be placed to better and more accurately monitor the park- particularly along these now defined critical faults. Scientists monitoring Yellowstone have been struggling for years to improve the monitoring there, and that part is not so simple. Monitoring sites are hard to come by, need to be studied carefully, are expensive, and are at the mercy of approval by the National Park Service- which seeks to maintain its yearly income from tourism and keep those "intrusive" seismic stations to a minimum.

Well I say the hell with tourism and get this obese, bloated government to apportion a sizable budget increase to get that park covered out the ying yang and give these scientists what they want and need. Nothing may be more important for the future of this country- and the world for that matter. Because it may come down to sheer minutes if that monster decides it's been sleeping long enough. Enough of war expenditures already. Let's put the money into catastrophe warning. At least that way the public could feel like their money went to something worthwhile. And it's honest. Imagine that.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

There was a Russian analyst who recently stated if US become too big for its britches

That they should just nudge Yellowstone

With all the fracking companies going out of business due to low oil prices, maybe we should hire them to go to that area and release some pressure . Sorry , i couldn't resist the sarcasm.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Not to be a prick, but if it's so costly to monitor, why waste the money for a mere few minute warning that S is about to HTF?

a reply to: iLikeCIAnot

Yes, I'm sure the National Park Service would have no problem letting the Russians come in with 10 billion dollars of drilling equipment and drop a nuke down a borehole.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

About the underlying newly found very large chamber.

originally posted by: KawRider9
a reply to: TrueAmerican

Not to be a prick, but if it's so costly to monitor, why waste the money for a mere few minute warning that S is about to HTF?

That seems to be a valid point on the surface, but increased monitoring and seismic station density could lead to yet more discoveries that might buy us a lot more time. Wars buy us nothing but pain and death.

Hey Boo Boo..screw the picanic baskets, let's the #[!! out of Jellystone!

Lol, sorry, couldn't resist. Seriously though, while I don't doubt the truth of this, to me its all just fearporn.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Thank you for not getting upset by my question. I would support funding for research instead of war.

I guess my knee jerk reaction came from the few minutes aspect. Personally, I'd like to see more funding into research into searching our Oceans, but that's another thread.

a reply to: KawRider9

Yeah, no prob. It really is a valid point, but still. There ARE good reasons to increase monitoring, and particularly with gas emission testing. For example, what if a weak spot developed somewhere down deep in a unmonitored area, and as a result, gas emissions increased there? Monitors and testing in that area might reveal a problem where otherwise, we wouldn't know.

originally posted by: Ironhawke
Seriously though, while I don't doubt the truth of this, to me its all just fearporn.

So you don't doubt the truth of this, and yet despite your own senses, telling you there really is something to this, it is STILL just fearporn.

Wow, now there's a classic.

Thanks for the thread! I love anything to do with Yellowstone volcanoes. I don't doubt that it would be good to fund more research in this area, but I also don't doubt that there is nothing we could do if this thing decided to blow, regardless of the warning time. The only thing that would matter would be some way to keep it from blowing. My guess is that would cause somewhere else to go off though...in an even larger explosion.

The earth has to release somewhere at sometime. If it could be "time released" then that may work, but in the end, it has to release.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Cool thread TA and thanks for sharing.

I came to a slightly differing conclusion from the article though, in that it appears to be saying the eruptive phase could be very quick rather than there being little to no warning of the eruptive phase occuring.

This appears to be backed up by accounts of Toba and what can be made of the historic eruption at Thera (Santorini) where there were weeks worth (possibly months woth) of warnings before the actual eruptions occured. The reason i include these as examples is because, as you know, both were super eruptive events.

originally posted by: Vasa Croe
The only thing that would matter would be some way to keep it from blowing.

sacrificing a virgin perhaps ? .... could be worth a try chucking one or two in .. i would volunteer to dive in, but alas, i am no longer 'pure of spirit'

My guess is that would cause somewhere else to go off though...in an even larger explosion.

we need lots more virgins ...

a reply to: Flavian

Not sure how you came to that conclusion, seeing as the abstract plainly states:

"We propose that magma ascent occurred rapidly from the source regions at 8–10 km to the surface along major regional faults, without storage at shallower depths."

That means it came up quick, without first being stored in the shallow chamber. And to me that means that when this thing blows, a lot of it comes from deep, from the lower chamber(s). And that is precisely why it is so dangerous. We can't see what's going on that deep, and can only guess.

And interestingly, this abstract dates back to 2012. As it turns out, the new imaging study just released confirms the existence of the very chamber from which the deep magma came. And only now are they able to match up the perplexing problem of all that CO2 emission with a magma chamber that supports the insane volume of the emissions they've been reading all these years. Previously, the emissions were way too much to correspond with the chambers they had imaged to that point. Now it is making more sense.

Any way to harness all that energy ? Sounds very geothermal and cheap to me . Why cant more tax money go into that kind of research. Using the natural energy already there ?

a reply to: Segenam

This is America,we're out of virgins sorry.
second line

When that thing goes, the whole world is going to be be affected. It is such a beautiful place, you would never know the monster beneath. I live in Nebraska and have a vested interest in them monitoring the fluctuations, I need as much time as I can get to head south or east!

a reply to: TrueAmerican

You seem to know a he'll of a lot more and understand a lot more about this than I do so answer me this...you know a "shunt" I think is the term (put into the cranium to release pressure???)...is there any technology like that they drill into volcanic areas to fix problems and lower risks regarding possible upcoming erruptions? Thanks for your time.

Don't waste your life worrying it away, your life is happening in this moment