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originally posted by: moebius
a reply to: Totemic
Oh the irony.
So here we have scientists doing very speculative research, and the UFO/alien crowd decrying it.
Shouldn't you guys be actually most supportive of such studies, independent of the result/interpretation?
Too bad they didn't look for flying saucers I guess...
PS:
In my opinion they should have avoided the "advanced civilizations" hypothesis and just looked at IR profiles of galaxies in general. Because that is the interesting part imho, even without aliens getting involved.
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
You have a very poor understanding of science and the specifics of this research.
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
You have a very poor understanding of science and the specifics of this research.
AS always, you're so kind and open minded. Cheers!
originally posted by: AndyMayhew
There has been life on this planet for something like 3,000,000,000 years.
There has been intelligent life on this planet that could theoretically be detected from other planets for about 100 years.
People often confuse "life" with "intelligent life".
I doubt you will find many scientists - at NASA or elsewhere - who are not pretty sure that life exists elsewhere in the universe and may even be abundant. I would not be surprised if we find it elsewhere in our solar system and even strong evidence it exists on exo-planets within the next 20 years, as NASA predicts (unless, of course, we are all wrong).
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
You have a very poor understanding of science and the specifics of this research.
AS always, you're so kind and open minded. Cheers!
The fact remains, the OP was dead wrong.
There is nothing contradictory going on here.
The NASA scientists stating they're confident we'll find at least simple (microbial) alien life within the next 10-30 years had nothing to do with the null results of a study looking for Dyson Sphere building supercivilizations.
The two are not mutually exclusive anymore than saying: "I'm confident that if I wait 10-30 mins next to this highway I will see a car go by." and then saying "I've searched for a Tesla on this highway but none drove by."
The second statement does not contradict the validity of the first.
An open mind is great, but an open, logical and sound mind is better.
But your being intentionally misleading and mis-directing. This is a known technique to avoid a direct debate.
originally posted by: game over man
Or in other words, the technology that exists to search for extra terrestrial life, requires every single planet, moon, all solar systems, in the entire galaxy to all be technologically advanced at the same time? Giving off a signal?
Might not be a cover up, unless they did discover a galaxy full of intelligent life and kept it from the public. Just a bad headline and poor technology on our end. They picked the easiest thing imaginable to observe/look for in the Universe if something so massive exists. Much harder to observe an exoplanet and see if it's technologically advanced. I just realized it has been mentioned many times that we have not yet launched telescopes to search for intelligent life on our known exoplanets. I think those are set to launch sometime in the 2020's.
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: game over man
Great thread OP! S&F!
I agree the study was somewhat flawed from the beginning:
“The idea behind our research is that if an entire galaxy had been colonized by an advanced spacefaring civilization, the energy produced by that civilization’s technologies would be detectable in mid-infrared wavelengths,”
Wright explains that when an advanced civilization uses large amounts of energy, this energy must be radiated away as heat. “This same basic physics causes your computer to radiate heat when it’s turned on.”
Basically they looked through 100,000 Galaxies to find a MASSIVE SPACESHIP?! Like a GALAXY SIZED spaceship? Umm ok...sounds like a fun job...
Not a spaceship.
A galaxy full of civilizations (or one galaxy-wide civilization) which harnesses most of the energy from each star by surrounding the stars with a shell called a Dyson Sphere.
Freeman Dyson, the mathematician and theoretical physicist who came up with the concept of the Dyson Sphere once coined a phrase anyone who is interested in the questions of what may be out there should keep in mind while setting up experiments to find ET:
"Don't just look for what is 'likely', look for what is detectable."
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
You have a very poor understanding of science and the specifics of this research.
AS always, you're so kind and open minded. Cheers!
The fact remains, the OP was dead wrong.
There is nothing contradictory going on here.
The NASA scientists stating they're confident we'll find at least simple (microbial) alien life within the next 10-30 years had nothing to do with the null results of a study looking for Dyson Sphere building supercivilizations.
The two are not mutually exclusive anymore than saying: "I'm confident that if I wait 10-30 mins next to this highway I will see a car go by." and then saying "I've searched for a Tesla on this highway but none drove by."
The second statement does not contradict the validity of the first.
An open mind is great, but an open, logical and sound mind is better.
But your being intentionally misleading and mis-directing. This is a known technique to avoid a direct debate.
This was said...
"The researchers used information from NASA’s WISE orbiting observatory to look for energy radiating away as heat. “The idea behind our research is that if an entire galaxy had been colonized by an advanced spacefaring civilization, the energy produced by that civilization’s technologies would be detectable in mid-infrared wavelengths,” says Jason T. Wright, a Penn State University professor who initiated the Glimpsing Heat from Alien Technologies Survey.
Then it was said.
"We found about 50 galaxies that have unusually high levels of mid-infrared radiation. Our follow-up studies of those galaxies may reveal if the origin of their radiation results from natural astronomical processes, or if it could indicate the presence of a highly advanced civilization."
Then it was said.
In any case, Wright said, the team's non-detection of any obvious alien-filled galaxies is an interesting and new scientific result. "Our results mean that, out of the 100,000 galaxies that WISE could see in sufficient detail, none of them is widely populated by an alien civilization using most of the starlight in its galaxy for its own purposes. That's interesting because these galaxies are billions of years old, which should have been plenty of time for them to have been filled with alien civilizations, if they exist. Either they don't exist, or they don't yet use enough energy for us to recognize them," Wright said.
This last Paragraph seems ti discount the middle paragraph and scope of the experiment or paper.
He should have said. We have found 50 interesting candidates for further study that could harbor intelligent life...or maybe something even less biased. He basically discounted the possibility of alien civilization even though his research showed the possibility as expressed in his theory.
That's all I'm saying, but of course I don't know how any of this works and must deflect to your superior intellect. Still wondering why you brought up microbial life forms in this thread though? if I was only a little bit stupider I could live in bliss without any questions. LOL
originally posted by: Totemic
www.popsci.com...
"Just a week after NASA scientists announced their certainty of finding alien life within the next 20 years,
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: JadeStar
originally posted by: amazing
Star and a flag and good analysis.
This in my opinion is a big issue. It doesn't matter if you think the premise of the Hypothesis is flawed. Good science is supposed to do that, you question something or have a theory and you create a testable hypothesis.
Then you have to live with the Data you get. These scientists are appearing to say "...well even though the evidence and data support our theory, we're still going to say the opposite, just because that's what we believe." Science isn't supposed to work like that.
You have a very poor understanding of science and the specifics of this research.
AS always, you're so kind and open minded. Cheers!
The fact remains, the OP was dead wrong.
There is nothing contradictory going on here.
The NASA scientists stating they're confident we'll find at least simple (microbial) alien life within the next 10-30 years had nothing to do with the null results of a study looking for Dyson Sphere building supercivilizations.
The two are not mutually exclusive anymore than saying: "I'm confident that if I wait 10-30 mins next to this highway I will see a car go by." and then saying "I've searched for a Tesla on this highway but none drove by."
The second statement does not contradict the validity of the first.
An open mind is great, but an open, logical and sound mind is better.
But your being intentionally misleading and mis-directing. This is a known technique to avoid a direct debate.
This was said...
"The researchers used information from NASA’s WISE orbiting observatory to look for energy radiating away as heat. “The idea behind our research is that if an entire galaxy had been colonized by an advanced spacefaring civilization, the energy produced by that civilization’s technologies would be detectable in mid-infrared wavelengths,” says Jason T. Wright, a Penn State University professor who initiated the Glimpsing Heat from Alien Technologies Survey.
Then it was said.
"We found about 50 galaxies that have unusually high levels of mid-infrared radiation. Our follow-up studies of those galaxies may reveal if the origin of their radiation results from natural astronomical processes, or if it could indicate the presence of a highly advanced civilization."
Which is correct.
Then it was said.
In any case, Wright said, the team's non-detection of any obvious alien-filled galaxies is an interesting and new scientific result. "Our results mean that, out of the 100,000 galaxies that WISE could see in sufficient detail, none of them is widely populated by an alien civilization using most of the starlight in its galaxy for its own purposes. That's interesting because these galaxies are billions of years old, which should have been plenty of time for them to have been filled with alien civilizations, if they exist. Either they don't exist, or they don't yet use enough energy for us to recognize them," Wright said.
This last Paragraph seems ti discount the middle paragraph and scope of the experiment or paper.
Read the details.
The key words in the above are "obvious" and "widely".
He should have said. We have found 50 interesting candidates for further study that could harbor intelligent life...or maybe something even less biased. He basically discounted the possibility of alien civilization even though his research showed the possibility as expressed in his theory.
In science we go to the most likely explanation in cases where something strange does not obviously lead us away from that.
For him to make the statement YOU want him to make he'd had have to have had more than something anomalous. So those 50 interesting candidates are not something you want to attach the words "alien civilization" to unless they are VERY good candidates.
A good example of this are all the candidate signals SETI receives. Do they regularlhy call press conferences to say they found "100 candidate signals which could be extraterrestrial intelligence"?
Nope. Because they are not going to do that for something as important as the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence. You have to be very sure to have excluded every other possibility before making that declaration.
I understand in the UFO crowd every blur on a photo is a UFO but it doesn't work that way in science.
The natural explanation for the 50 candidates is IR excess due to natural processes. Nothing about them jumped out forcing anyone to say "HEY! THIS ISNT NATURAL!!!"
Clouds of dust and gas around young stars can cause the same IR excess in those 50 candidates. In order for them to be considered more interesting there would have to be something which could not naturally explain the IR excess in those 50 candidates.
Nothing reached that threshold.
Another example are the NASA Kepler planet candidates. Even though 90% of the planet candidates will be confirmed (the Kepler false positive rate is around 10%), NASA never calls them planets until they are actually confirmed to be planets.
That's all I'm saying, but of course I don't know how any of this works and must deflect to your superior intellect. Still wondering why you brought up microbial life forms in this thread though? if I was only a little bit stupider I could live in bliss without any questions. LOL
I brought up microbial life because the original post says this:
originally posted by: Totemic
www.popsci.com...
"Just a week after NASA scientists announced their certainty of finding alien life within the next 20 years,
That statement was part of the press conference in the video below on the search for microbial life. The statement is made in the last 5 or 10 minutes of this video:
So by the original post using that reference it became part of this conversation. And from what I can tell, your intellect, superior or not might have been unaware of that fact.
originally posted by: amazing
But your bias led you to miss the most important part of this whole thread
originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
Great thread!
Yes, I think it is a hugely faulty assumption that civilizations that are tens of thousands or millions of years advanced from us would use tech that wastes heat like our 100 or so years of tech.
originally posted by: Jonjonj
Whether or not the experiment is flawed in concept, what the OP said is the most important part, isn't it?
So they get the results=large number of nothing to see here... tiny number=hmmm, not sure here.
And they disregard the hmmmm? When the whole idea was to find the hmmm!
Hmmm!!!
Thanks OP S&F
Wright says they plan to look more closely to determine if the generated heat is from natural sources or from advanced civilizations. “This pilot study is just the beginning.”