4.8 EQ California...Was ATS Member Correct?

Spooky stuff is afoot...

UnBreakable's Thread
www.abovetopsecret.com...

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...


Type: EarthQuake
18 minutes ago
Magnitude: 4.5
DateTime: 2015-04-10 13:59:39
Region: off the coast of Northern California
Depth: 10
Source: USGS Feed

Looks like a 4.8 as well. Could be a glitch. Happens a lot.

Type: EarthQuake
29 minutes ago
Magnitude: 4.8
DateTime: 2015-04-10 13:59:34
Region: Off Coast Of Northern California
Depth: 2
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed

Not a big one but a shaker and the prediction is 8.6 today. I actually hope UnBreakable is wrong on this one.

Are we going to see the big one today? Time will tell.

Jude11

Actually I was going to post on his post for this EQ, not quite an 8.3 but larger than there has been for a while.
The 4.5 was upgraded.
M4.8 - 163km W of Ferndale, California
Nearby Cities
163km (101mi) W of Ferndale, California
172km (107mi) W of Fortuna, California
176km (109mi) WSW of Eureka, California
184km (114mi) WSW of Arcata, California
449km (279mi) WNW of Sacramento, California

Everyone have your LA Quakecam??

a reply to: jude11

That is an uncanny coincidence. If that "micro" activity continues to occur, Unbreakable will have definitely raised my eyebrows. Hopefully that 4.8 will be the only thing that comes out of CA today!

originally posted by: jude11
I actually hope UnBreakable is wrong on this one.

From your link, UnBreakable said:

Luckily, I'm usually wrong...

Science does have some predictive tools. They can tell when a volcano eruption is imminent.

For Earthquakes we can determine the amount of plate movement, and calculate the amount of stress built up over time, and estimate the approximate magnitude potential based on that built up stress. But even predicting the date of an Earthquake within a decade isn't possible yet. The reason why is understandable, there are too many nuanced variables.

To be sure the big one will happen sometime, but if we have a million people predict it on a million different days, and it happens on one of those days, the prediction wasn't just "lucky", it was inevitable. It had to happen on one of those million days. So I wouldn't even get excited if an earthquake happened on the day someone said it would. Statistically that's bound to happen even if their predictive skills are exactly zero. Now if a person or a team of scientists make a chain of accurate predictions that are statistically unlikely, then we might have something to talk about.

But in this thread....nothing.

a reply to: jude11

A 4.8 is pretty strong. Will keep an eye on this. It could trigger a bigger one

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: jude11
I actually hope UnBreakable is wrong on this one.

From your link, UnBreakable said:

Luckily, I'm usually wrong...

Science does have some predictive tools. They can tell when a volcano eruption is imminent.

For Earthquakes we can determine the amount of plate movement, and calculate the amount of stress built up over time, and estimate the approximate magnitude potential based on that built up stress. But even predicting the date of an Earthquake within a decade isn't possible yet. The reason why is understandable, there are too many nuanced variables.

To be sure the big one will happen sometime, but if we have a million people predict it on a million different days, and it happens on one of those days, the prediction wasn't just "lucky", it was inevitable. It had to happen on one of those million days. So I wouldn't even get excited if an earthquake happened on the day someone said it would. Statistically that's bound to happen even if their predictive skills are exactly zero. Now if a person or a team of scientists make a chain of accurate predictions that are statistically unlikely, then we might have something to talk about.

But in this thread....nothing.

I get what you're saying but have 2 things to offer.

1. There weren't a million people on ATS predicting a sizable EQ today...only one.

2. I believe his time prediction was 4:17...Only a few minutes off so far.

I'll have to add a 3rd here. I am not one to follow these predictions as I adhere to your way of thinking but...This prediction was damn close.

Jude11

His prediction was at 4:17 Pacific time - and of a much larger quake.

Consider this: that would fall under a foreshock if a significantly (magnitude 5.8+) greater quake were to happen soon.

Not saying UnBreakable is right, but it might be a good idea to exercise some caution.

a reply to: blackmetalmist

Field said his team concluded that the previous forecast over-predicted the rate of “moderate-sized” earthquakes like the 6.7 Northridge temblor of 1994 “because we weren’t linking faults up.” That’s also why the previous forecast under-predicted the rate of quakes 8.0 and larger.

“We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century. But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable,” Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study, said in a statement.

LA Times

If you watch RSOE you would know that magnitude 5 is quite common in California.

a reply to: jude11

It was 4:17 Pacific Mountain Time. It could still happen later today

originally posted by: jude11

2. I believe his time prediction was 4:17...Only a few minutes off so far.

It's only 12:45 in Los Angeles. He's definitely still got some time left on the clock for his prediction.

a reply to: dollukka

I live in Los Angeles so yes, I'm aware it is quite common. Regardless, it is never good to feel a shake no matter how strong it is. I've felt smaller quakes that have felt pretty strong due to being near the epicentre.

a reply to: blackmetalmist

Lived there too. Magnitude 3 hardly anybody notice, except if you are upper stores in buildings, if you are outside hardly. Magnitude 4 still not everybody feel it outside but many do inside buildings, when you reach 5 almost all feels it.

Well the size, time, and location were all different than what he predicted.

So aside from there being a quake, no he wasn't right. There's still time though. About 3 hours since his estimate was 4 something PDT.

As cool as it would've been

originally posted by: Greven
His prediction was at 4:17 Pacific time - and of a much larger quake.

Consider this: that would fall under a foreshock if a significantly (magnitude 5.8+) greater quake were to happen soon.

Not saying UnBreakable is right, but it might be a good idea to exercise some caution.

Holy EFF balls....I mean the dude predicted the area and just about the time! Off on the magnitude so far, but holy hell give the person some freaking credit! We barely ever, I mean just about 99.9999% ever get a prediction that is even anywhere near as close as this one....

I will give credit where it is due and man...Thanks for the heads up! Maybe you need to keep paying attention to your dreams unbreakable!! This one was damn close and if you have any others, please keep us posted just in case!!

a reply to: jude11

A witch!

That's pretty crazy, this could actually be a foreshock. Happened with the big one in Japan in 2011 I think. Will keep a close eye on this one, just due to the close proximity and the prediction. Less than 3 hours to see if it happens.

a reply to: jude11

Are we going to see the big one today? Time will tell.

Not likely…

a) That region is a strike slip fault zone, not a subduction zone where events trigger bigger events, (like in Japan).

b) if a bigger one was to let go that will tend to happen during or right after the smaller one. Because the shock waves are the biggest trigger around.

Little quakes are good quakes around here. As long as things are moving, thats a good sign. When they stop moving thats when pressure is building.

I want to see a constant progression of annual or semi annual fours and fives up and down the coast.

The best weather and rock and roll…

originally posted by: greencmp
a reply to: jude11

A witch!

Yip, i saw him suck from the nipples of a furry beast in a wooded area just last week...burn the Bastard.

a reply to: jude11

After reading (Unbreakable's) thread this morning...I prayed that if there had to be an earthquake today in CA...that it would be a much smaller one and no one would get hurt...and then you created this thread...prayer answered!