It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: InTheFlesh1980
Very cute!
I attack the Heartland Institute because they are notorious for using pseudoscience and social manipulation to get their agenda to appeal to the average person.
The typical ad hominem attack has no basis, clearly there are plenty of reasons to question the Heartland Institute and what amounts to pseudoscience and disinformation that they to to pass as fact. You are clearly ignoring the issue here. An opinion piece, essentially a blog does not count as Breaking News.
originally posted by: nenothtu
We now know that you don't like this "heartland Institute" on a personal level - is there anything you can say that actually refutes the content of the article?
I am skeptical humans are the main cause of climate change and that it will be catastrophic in the near future. There is no scientific proof of this hypothesis, yet we are told “the debate is over” and “the science is settled.”
My skepticism begins with the believers’ certainty they can predict the global climate with a computer model. The entire basis for the doomsday climate change scenario is the hypothesis increased atmospheric carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel emissions will heat the Earth to unlivable temperatures.
In fact, the Earth has been warming very gradually for 300 years, since the Little Ice Age ended, long before heavy use of fossil fuels. Prior to the Little Ice Age, during the Medieval Warm Period, Vikings colonized Greenland and Newfoundland, when it was warmer there than today. And during Roman times, it was warmer, long before fossil fuels revolutionized civilization.
Solar activity reaches new high
Dec 2, 2003
Geophysicists in Finland and Germany have calculated that the Sun is more magnetically active now than it has been for over a 1000 years. Ilya Usoskin and colleagues at the University of Oulu and the Max-Planck Institute for Aeronomy say that their technique – which relies on a radioactive dating technique - is the first direct quantitative reconstruction of solar activity based on physical, rather than statistical, models (I G Usoskin et al. 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 211101)
...
Using modelling techniques, the Finnish team was able to extend data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its highest ever value of 76.
“We need to understand this unprecedented level of activity,” Usoskin told PhysicsWeb. “Is it is a rare event that happens once a millennium - which means that the Sun will return to normal - or is it a new dynamic state that will keep solar activity levels high?” The Finnish-German team also speculates that increased solar activity may be having an effect on the Earth’s climate, but more work is needed to clarify this.
Variations in Total Solar Irradiance
The ACRIM I instrument was the first to clearly demonstrate that the total radiant energy emanating from the sun was not a constant, and varied in proportion to solar magnetic activity. However, the sun’s output changes so slowly and solar variability is so slight (less than 0.00425% of the total energy per year on time scales of days), that continuous monitoring by state-of-the-art instrumentation is necessary to detect changes with climate significance. Scientists theorize that as much as 25% of the 20th century anticipated global warming of the Earth may be due to changes in the sun’s energy output. Systematic changes in irradiance as little as 0.25% per century can cause the complete range of climate variations that have occurred in the past, ranging from ice ages to global tropical conditions. For example, scientists believe the "Little Ice Age" that occured in Europe in the late 17th century could have been related to the minimum in sunspot activity (and a correlated minimum in total solar irradiance) that occured during the same period.
ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic
flux TSI proxy model
Nicola Scafetta
1
and Richard C. Willson
2
Received 10 October 2008; revised 12 December 2008; accepted 13 January 2009; published 3 March 2009.
[1] TheACRIM-gap(1989.5–1991.75) continuitydilemma for satellite TSI observations is resolved by bridging the satellite TSI monitoring gap between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results with TSI derived from Krivova et al.’s (2007) proxy model based on variations of the surface distribution of solar magnetic flux. ‘Mixed’ versions of ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are constructed with their composites’ original values except for the ACRIM gap, where Krivova modeled
TSI is used to connect ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results. Both ‘mixed’ composites demonstrate a significant TSI increase of 0.033 %/decade between the solar activity minima of 1986 and 1996, comparable to the 0.037 % found in the ACRIM composite. The finding supports the contention of Willson (1997) that the ERBS/ERBE results are flawed by uncorrected degradation during the ACRIM gap and refutes the Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap adjustment Fröhlich and Lean (1998) employed in constructing the PMOD.
Citation:
Scafetta, N., and R. C. Willson (2009), ACRIM-gap and
TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy
model,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307.
...
This finding has evident repercussions for climate change and solar physics. Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades [Scafetta and West, 2007, 2008]. Current climate models [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007] have assumed that the TSI did not vary significantly during the last 30 years and have therefore underestimated the solar contribution and overestimated the anthropogenic contribution to global warming.
...
Major Magentic Storms 1868-2007
According to the AA* criteria
...
Because of the difference in units of presentation, the values of AA* and Ap* are not the same so that different major magnetic storm onset and end threshold values are used for the two series. However their comparison for the years of overlapping coverage show that relative frequency of occurrence of major storms per year are similar. Another reason for differences is that an index derived from magnetic perturbation values at only two observatories easily experiences larger extreme values if either input site is well situated to the overhead ionospheric and.or field aligned current systems producing the magnetic storm effects. Although not documented here, it is interesting to note that the overall level of magnetic disturbance from year to year has increased substantially from a low around 1900 Also, the level of mean yearly aa is now much higher so that a year of minimum magnetic disturbances now is typically more disturbed than years at maximum disturbance levels before 1900.
...
www.ngdc.noaa.gov...
Underwater volcanoes, not climate change, reason behind melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
By James Maynard, Tech Times | June 10, 10:43 PM
Melting of a major glacier system in western Antarctica may be caused by underwater volcanoes, and not by global climate change, according to new research.
Thwaites Glacier, a massive outlet for ice that empties into Pine Island Bay, is flowing at a rate of one-and-a-quarter miles per year. The bay opens up into the Amundsen Sea.
The Thwaites Glacier has been the subject of scrutiny by climatologists in the last few years, as new information about the severity of the melting becomes available. Traditional models had assumed heating from subterranean sources was fairly even around the region. New data provides details about areas where little was previously known.
University of Texas researchers studied how water moves underground in the region. They found liquid water was present in a greater number of sources than previously believed, and it is warmer than estimated in previous studies.
...
Researchers Find Major West Antarctic Glacier Melting from Geothermal Sources
June 10, 2014
AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.
The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts.
Using radar techniques to map how water flows under ice sheets, UTIG researchers were able to estimate ice melting rates and thus identify significant sources of geothermal heat under Thwaites Glacier. They found these sources are distributed over a wider area and are much hotter than previously assumed.
...
originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: nenothtu
Wow! You are defending the Heartland Institute and their 'message' The Heartland Institute!
My opinion is you deserve some special kind of trophy.
How can a rational person just ignore what is going on with this planet?
originally posted by: mc_squared
originally posted by: nenothtu
We now know that you don't like this "heartland Institute" on a personal level - is there anything you can say that actually refutes the content of the article?
I'll take a bite on this (even though I loathe giving Heartland web hits) - let's go look at his article.
1st paragraph:
I am skeptical humans are the main cause of climate change and that it will be catastrophic in the near future. There is no scientific proof of this hypothesis, yet we are told “the debate is over” and “the science is settled.”
This is a ridiculous statement. There is plenty of proof for man's fingerprint on climate change - it starts with the bare bones physics that were confirmed 150 years ago, and ends with direct observations measured in the modern day. I already provided a couple examples of that evidence earlier in this thread, here.
2nd paragraph:
My skepticism begins with the believers’ certainty they can predict the global climate with a computer model. The entire basis for the doomsday climate change scenario is the hypothesis increased atmospheric carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel emissions will heat the Earth to unlivable temperatures.
This is just another fallacy. Again, see the link above - the "certainty" doesn't come from computer models, it comes from plain cause and effect physics. Skeptic shills love to point to complicated computer models though to divert attention away from the simple stuff.
3rd paragraph:
In fact, the Earth has been warming very gradually for 300 years, since the Little Ice Age ended, long before heavy use of fossil fuels. Prior to the Little Ice Age, during the Medieval Warm Period, Vikings colonized Greenland and Newfoundland, when it was warmer there than today. And during Roman times, it was warmer, long before fossil fuels revolutionized civilization.
Again - false. He is cherry picking localized data to distort the truth. Comprehensive datasets of global reconstructions have been put together showing what we are going through now is indeed unique and quite unprecedented:
Source:
Surface Temperature Reconstructions For The Last 2,000 Years
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
originally posted by: mc_squared
...
Same goes for the part about human attribution: the physics alone show undeniable proof that humans can cause significant climate change – that’s the key issue. If we wait around until we are causing catastrophic climate change just to prove a point, it becomes kind of moot then doesn't it?
...
originally posted by: jrod
So now you are just going to call every point I make a fallacy?
originally posted by: jrod
At least you can not deny there is arctic ice cap meltage. However the bulk of the melting has happened after 2007...
Underwater Volcanoes Play Role in Long-Term Climate
Feb 7, 2015 by Sci-News.com
Cyclical variations in Earth’s tilt and orbit – occurring at 23,000-, 41,000- and 100,000-year intervals – are known to strongly influence our planet’s long-term climate; they are associated with the coming and going of ice ages that also takes place about every 100,000 years. A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has revealed that the intensity of volcanic activity at deeply submerged mid-ocean ridges waxes and wanes on approximately the same timetable.
...
originally posted by: jrod
. Also you are not correct on your assessment that H20 is "10 times more than CO2"....what basis do you have to make such a claim?
...
As a greenhouse gas, water vapor is 10 times more potent than carbon dioxide and its increase is a key factor in the rising global temperatures appearing in the models.
...
originally posted by: jrod
Do you intentionally make misleading claims like that?
originally posted by: jrod
Interesting how you try to belittle my intelligence and knowledge of the atmosphere, Any luck trying to figure out resident time calculations?
CO2 is going up, CH4 is going up as a result of human activity
originally posted by: mc_squared
a reply to: nenothtu
I addressed Moore’s claims directly: about current warming apparently being nothing special in light of the little ice age and medieval warming period – showing that he was wrong about that, and current warming is indeed unique in this context.
That’s exactly what you asked for – regarding the credibility of his claims. But now you are just shifting goalposts and changing the subject.
Same goes for the part about human attribution: the physics alone show undeniable proof that humans can cause significant climate change – that’s the key issue. If we wait around until we are causing catastrophic climate change just to prove a point, it becomes kind of moot then doesn't it?
But if you want to quantify the human contribution to current warming there is also plenty of science on that too:
Advances in Attribution of Changes in Global-Scale Temperature in the Instrumental Period: Atmosphere, Ocean and Ice
New Study, Same Result - Greenhouse Gases Dominate Global Warming
(Once again – debunking Moore’s claim that this evidence doesn’t exist).
Somehow based on your last response though, I’m guessing you will now twist this into something else as well. I’m really not interested in answering questions for people who then change the question to avoid dealing with answers they don’t want to hear.
Giant Undersea Volcanoes Found Off Antarctica
Mount Fuji-size peaks unexpected, scientists say.
By Richard A. Lovett, for National Geographic News
PUBLISHED July 16, 2011
A chain of giant, undersea volcanoes has been found off Antarctica, scientists say.
All told a dozen previously unknown peaks were discovered beneath the waves—some up to 10,000 feet (3,000 meters) tall, according to the British Antarctic Survey.
...
Mount Fuji-Size Volcanoes Unexpected
The scientists were expecting to find volcanoes. For one thing, the South Sandwich Islands are actively volcanic. For another, in 1962, a passing British naval vessel found large patches of floating pumice that could only have come from an underwater eruption.
But the researchers didn't expect to find volcanoes the size of Japan's Mount Fuji.
...
Thousand of new volcanoes revealed beneath the waves
10:04 09 July 2007 by Catherine Brahic
The true extent to which the ocean bed is dotted with volcanoes has been revealed by researchers who have counted 201,055 underwater cones. This is over 10 times more than have been found before.
The team estimates that in total there could be about 3 million submarine volcanoes, 39,000 of which rise more than 1000 metres over the sea bed.
...