Japan could be in Earthquake Trouble...Again

Japan just a couple days ago had a 6.7 off their coast. Just in the last few minutes they got another 6.3 (EMSC) near the same area. That is only a .4 mag difference, which violates the 1 mag rule differential. In other words, we could be looking at foreshocks here, much the same way that there was a 7.5 foreshock to the 9.0 just days before it.

We have shown, and have seen previously that when quakes that high in magnitude strike close together in time in the same general area, that the likelihood they are foreshocks to bigger quakes increases dramatically. Let's hope not, as Japan has no doubt seen its share of devastation from that 9.0. But we can't disregard what is happening. This is dangerous seismicity, and now I am on the alert with that new 6+. Still waiting on a USGS rating (6.3)... But lookout Japan- sorry to say once again. You might be in for another whopper. The only hope is that both these big quakes are in effect belated aftershocks of the 9.0. Yes, even years later.

www.emsc-csem.org...
USGS: earthquake.usgs.gov...

Here is the last thirty days activity (above 4.5), including that 6.3 that just happened:


I drew a red circle where things seem to be converging. I'd say that spot is at high risk for a quake right about now or in the near future.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I have been getting ready. I am stationed in Misawa AB (the closest Air Base to that area. Between Hachinohe and Aomori) My family and I were here for 2011 one. I remember the lead up to it. The 2 6's we had the other day were pretty powerful considering the distance. My office was rolling pretty good. That day I went out and resupplied the emergency kits and water. Picked up a couple propane heaters (last time we were without heat for 3 days and we still had a few feet of snow on the ground so we were freezing. That being said im getting ready just encase.

yes unfortunately the whole world is about to get a very rude awakening from our mother. When i created the thread : Massive earthquake immanent i also called out russia in that posting reply but no one will pay attention .

I already know whats coming it isnt pretty were heading in to what history will call dark age period again.

Have they even got those power plants cleaned up yet?

a reply to: rickymouse

They have not gotten that under control yet. The latest is that they opened the refrigerator facility that will create the ice wall around the core to prevent any more water getting out.

the-japan-news.com...

originally posted by: TheJesuit
I already know whats coming it isnt pretty were heading in to what history will call dark age period again.

Interesting choice of name you've got there, any significance behind it to bolden your statement ? Just curious, btw I feel the same way

my girlfriend is on phi phi and just messaged to say they feel a earthquake there, also felt in phuket and pangna.

a reply to: wrc445

Good luck to you, stay prepared..

Wife laughs at me I keep telling her if it hits the fan we will be ok... If not I have some awesome gear for hiking/camping etc.

My prayers are with any in the region.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
Here is the last thirty days activity (above 4.5), including that 6.3 that just happened:

I drew a red circle where things seem to be converging. I'd say that spot is at high risk for a quake right about now or in the near future.

New earthquake at 4.6 in the area of your map:
www.emsc-csem.org...

Hopefully it will subside with this one...

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Never heard of the one magnitude rule. I get the gist of it from your post, but curious about where it comes from and some more in depth info.

Here is the current situation, and the rupture area appears to be expanding:


Any of those locations I've marked with red stars I believe are at high risk for a bigger quake in the coming hours and days. The problem is here, the way I see it, that the smaller quakes are too far away from the bigger 6+'s just to be mere aftershocks. Nope, I believe something else is brewing here, due to the large area that is being covered by these supposed aftershocks. It's like something is getting ready to go boom. Notice also that the smaller quakes are on both sides of the subduction zone. This doesn't look good for Japan.

a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

This is the first time I've heard of this too, and I watch quite a lot of EQ documentaries and am pretty interested in the science.

I'm not sure how credible the idea is, as this would allow us significant warnings about potential large and damaging quakes and I just don't see us having developed that yet.

Surely if this "rule" was actually credible it would go a long way to assisting in early warnings and alerts, and we're just not seeing that.

TA, did you read the latest paper modeling stress levels of the 2011 Tohoku rupture area?

Although the stress was largely released during the 2011 rupture, thus leading to an increase in b-values immediately after the megathrust event, the stress levels (i.e., b-values) quickly recovered to pre-megaquake levels within just a few years. This suggests that the megathrust zone is likely ready for large earthquakes any time with a low but on average constant probability.

Read more at: phys.org...

(bolding is mine)

I didn't feel anything here in Tokyo, but considering the distance to epicenter that's not too surprising. I really hope we don't get another big one. I was here for the 2011 and we shook pretty good even here in Tokyo. I was still teaching English here at the time and all the students were really freaked out.

And now for a different spin:

The results show that mega-thrust earthquakes make the Earth expand and earthquakes along a normal fault make the Earth contract. We compare the volume changes computed for finite fault models and a point source of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0). The big difference of the results indicates that the coseismic changes in the Earth's volume (or the mean radius) are strongly dependent on the earthquakes’ focal mechanism, especially the depth and the dip angle. Then we estimate the cumulative volume changes by historical earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.0) since 1960, and obtain an Earth mean radius expanding rate about 0.011 mm yr−1.

Earthquake-origin expansion of the Earth inferred from a spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory



a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

Earthquakes are never isolated from other earthquakes:

Earthquake Sequences

Earthquakes are not isolated events, they occur in sequences. Most often, each sequence is dominated by an event with a larger magnitude than all others in the sequence (usually about one magnitude unit larger).

We call the large event the mainshock, and the events that follow are called aftershocks.

Occasionally, the mainshock is preceded by an event or events that we call a foreshock(s).

Sometimes, earthquakes occur in interesting sequences which we call doublets, triplets, multiplets, or swarms depending on how many similar-size events are in the sequence.

source

Think of it like energy flow being obstructed then suddenly breaking and releasing. Which will in turn either flow free or reach an obstruction and begin building stress until rupture point is reached.

Then it echos, that would be the aftershocks.

a reply to: Olivine

Well no, not until you posted that I didn't. But after reading that now, the first thing I thought of was "Oh crap, if stress levels can return so quickly after such a massive quake, then I might not be as safe as I thought from the dreaded New Madrid fault zone."

I was thinking that since it's only been a couple hundred years since the massive quakes there on the New Madrid, that it would take at least another thousand years before stress levels could be threatening again. But after reading that, now I am not so sure. Granted, it is a different locale, and the geology is different on several fronts- one being that it is not a subduction zone like the Japan Trench. But still, makes me wonder.

And worse, what it does show is that even after that massive quake in Japan, the area is already stress reloaded, after a mere four short years. And it must be true, considering that a 6.7 and a 6.3 just went off in the same general vecinity of the 9.0. Wow. Who woulda thunk it. Bottom line: lookout Japan.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

I completely understand what foreshocks and aftershocks are. What I don't understand is the still unacknowledged "1 mag rule differential" from the original post made by TrueAmerican. Like I said before, I understand the context of it, but have never seen, read, or heard anything scientific about it before.

I lived in Japan. I was stationed at Camp Zama (just south of Tokyo) for three years. We got tons of earthquakes. 4s, 5s, and some 6s. It's just part of what happens there. A 6.7 isn't necessarily a fore-shock. It happens.