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And now, only a few months later, There are 10k cases and you are suggesting that considering projections based on reported cases, never mind all these agencies acknowledge they are far underreported, is an exaggeration and fantasy?
originally posted by: HappyThoughts
a reply to: NoAngel2u
And now, only a few months later, There are 10k cases and you are suggesting that considering projections based on reported cases, never mind all these agencies acknowledge they are far underreported, is an exaggeration and fantasy?
It is if you take it straight to a 6 million number like the other poster did.
Those projections are kinda meaningless. It doubled every month but that doesn´t mean you can just assume that it will keep doing so. There are a lot of factors that play into this like distances between places and the amount of people in the region for instance.
The other poster didn't take it straight to 6 mil.
If 10,000 cases in West Africa resulted in 2 individuals bringing Ebola to the USA, what does 6 million cases in West Africa imply.
Those projections are hardly meaningless. Yes, there are many things that factor into this, like abundant and appropriate supplies, gear and facilities, along with med care staff, etc, etc. We all know the list.
If the increased efforts pay off, those "improving projections" will be noticed and referenced by those now saying pay no attention to them.
And so to speak on topic,,, woohoo, we only got 5 cases of bola in the us! Nanernanernanernaner. Me and mines didnt get it, so what's the big deal?
Not exactly. That was a worst case scenario.
WHO/CDC project cases to 1.4 million in January 2015.
The epidemic is not following the worst case scenario. The reported number as of October 31 is 13,540, 32% below that 20,000.
Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Biotech2024
Not exactly. That was a worst case scenario.
WHO/CDC project cases to 1.4 million in January 2015.
The epidemic is not following the worst case scenario. The reported number as of October 31 is 13,540, 32% below that 20,000.
Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.
www.nejm.org...=articleTop
www.internationalsos.com...
We just don't know what the real numbers are.
the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be
Influenza virus as proxy for Ebola virus.
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Biotech2024
Influenza virus as proxy for Ebola virus.
What makes you think that flu is a valid proxy for ebola?
In the case of pandemic H1N1 influenza, the person-to-person transmission measured by basic reproduction number (R0) was almost the same (R0 = 1.4 to 1.6) as seasonal influenza (R0 = 0.9 to 2.1), and the disease may in a range from mild to acute(34,35).
Overall basic reproductive number (R0) for the epidemic was estimated to be between 1.6 and 2.0, consistent with prior outbreaks.
Animals were then exposed to SUDV in a head-only aerosol chamber within a class III biological safety cabinet for a time-calculated aerosol exposure. Aerosols were generated by a three-jet Collison nebulizer (BGI, Inc, Waltham, MA) controlled by an automated exposure control system
originally posted by: TKDRL
a reply to: Mikeultra
If true, she is doing a great job with her mission. Have you seen any comment section on facebook articles? People demanding they throw her in jail(really smart to toss someone they fear infected there, am I right? Morons), to hoping she and her family dies of ebola, or someone runs her over when she is riding her bike, etc etc. Some scary people, and some of it was at libertarian pages as well.
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: jadedANDcynical
The reference was not to Ro. The reference was to methods of transmission.
Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walsh et al., 2005), by which time we were fairly equipped to deal with it in remote low population density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.