Ebola, more prevalent than you think

jaded...how far apart are the swine flu that decimated the midwest and the ebola?functionally (mostly vector wise, but also compositionally) they have Slight differences in environments ( historically) but vast differences in effective mutation and transmission . more importantly how often is the "species barrier" being broken recently as opposed to historically?

Ebola has just about broken it's run for dominance or domination( statistically speaking) , unless unnatural forces' aid it.
(like shipping ebola exposed people all over the map,and massively lying about it in the media)

an interesting example in NY is how the tabloids and "news"papers downplayed this # that they would normally sensationalized ( to sell more PAPERS...haha) ,

why ?

600,000 people have died from aids in Africa since the Ebola was first reported and 4000 are officially dead from ebola.even if we assume the normalization of government "rationalization" of the numbers ( say a factor of 5) that means 20000 dead from ebola and over half a million dead from aids

because you know what I am saying jaded...the radiation is out there and now so( as have they been through out history) are the pathogens....the odd thing is I think we can beat them ( the pathogens and whatever else)

a reply to: soficrow

From the muck of increasingly overpopulated impoverished 3rd world human existence will come one day a real microbial threat that will make Ebola seem like nothing.

Mother nature can be an evil bitch when she's had enough.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Things people dont seem to appreciate.

1. Ebola is still largely not understood.
2. Can survive on surfaces for hours
3. Can be airborne.
4. Can be transmitted by all bodily fluids, including sweat.
5. Can be highly infectious in even minuscule quantities.
6. It is spreading at 1.5 to 2.0 new cases of Ebola for every case of infection. That means it is still not being slowed.


Considering what WHO and UN health officials are saying, this is really out of control and unless more concerted efforts are taken, this will explode. We still arent giving them what they need or doing what they say needs to be done to stop this.

40% of all infections and deaths happened recently. It is increasing in its spread. Its booming.

The thing we have to watch out for is if it mutates and LOSES its mortality rate. Then it will become like HIV and just spread undetected with a single host infecting people for his entire life. A non mortal Ebola is more dangerous and considering its RNA based, can and will mutate. How is anyones guess but viruses tend to try to keep hosts alive to spread to other hosts as much as possible. It only kills us because we arent its natural host.

This became the epidemic it is because people didnt believe the warnings and were generally dismissive of its threat.
Even some people here who tend to be more proactive are still in denial.

If you think we are all crazy then fine. I know you guys arent risking your safety in real life. I dont care how much smack you talk and how much you encourage others to risk their health. You arent....just in case.

So why be so aggressive about people trying to not spread a continent wide epidemic onto a global scale?
Especially when you arent throwing caution to the wind yourselves...

a reply to: tadaman

Its booming.

In Liberia. Yes.

This became the epidemic it is because people didnt believe the warnings and were generally dismissive of its threat.

False. It became epidemic because of the level of health care and the practices of culture in which it has been flourishing.

So why be so aggressive about people trying to not spread a continent wide epidemic onto a global scale?

Because the chances of that happening are next to nill. Because any efforts in regard to the disease should be devoted to the region in which it is epidemic, not running in circles and arm waving.

How many people were on the plane that Thomas Duncan arrived on? How many of them got sick?

a reply to: Phage

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the outbreak was raging in Liberia especially close to the epicentre of the outbreak in Lofa County and in the capital Monrovia.

However, the two other countries primarily hit by the outbreak, Sierra Leone and Guinea, had been relatively stable. Numbers of new cases were not falling, but they were not soaring either.

That is no longer true, with a surge in cases everywhere except some parts of rural Sierra Leone in the districts of Kenema and Kailahun.

"In most other areas, cases and deaths appear to be rising. That came as a shock to me," said Dr Dye.

www.bbc.com...

www.who.int...

Reports of new Ebola cases surged in western Sierra Leone during the week ended Oct. 14. The authorities said that the movement of people from country’s interior to the Freetown area was driving the increase in the west.

www.nytimes.com...

This is compounded by denial about the disease. Though denial is less prevalent now, more than six months into the epidemic, for a period at the beginning — when Ebola emerged for the first time ever in West Africa — people just didn't believe it was real.

"People thought the government was making it up, that it's an excuse for the government to get money for all these different agencies," says Moses, "or it's a political plot to try to murder people in the east because people in the east belong to the opposition party."

www.vox.com...

As far as everything else you said, I disagree. You dont stop following basic practices of epidemiology...which is a two front war. One at the source but and one at stopping possible spread. You dont try to contain the source just because. The whole point is to avoid spread, that is the core principle of epidemiology. You stop it so it doesn't spread. The key word is containment.

Most cases where it has left its localized area of infection has been by relief workers. If they had not been contained, they could have infected countless people. Paranoia has been paying off.

a reply to: tadaman

Yes. Sierra Leone too.
Because of the level of health care and the cultural practices.

Your source:

However, richer countries have the facilities to prevent an isolated case becoming an uncontrolled outbreak.

www.bbc.com...

Most cases where it has left its localized area of infection has been by relief workers. If they had not been contained, they could have infected countless people.

How? How many people were on the plane with Tomas Duncan? How many got sick?

a reply to: Phage

I dont disagree with you there phage. This is a part of the world that has historically outright refused development.
They still do things like rape virgins to cure themselves of AIDS or avoid condoms for spiritual reasons.

I am not saying we should condemn them for their cultural practices, its their choice. We just need to take this into consideration.

Also, Ebola is not hard to avoid or contain if basic protocol is followed. Thats why its threat level is always low officially. The one thing we should notice is that a distinction is always made, IF protocol is followed it is manageable. If not, it is in its natural unhindered state VERY contagious.

a reply to: tadaman

I am not saying we should condemn them for their cultural practices, its their choice.

The major reason the disease has become epidemic in the region is because of their cultural practices and the generally low level of health care.

IF protocol is followed it is manageable. If not, it is in its natural unhindered state VERY contagious.

Not without very close and intensive contact. Ducan's family did not get sick. No one being monitored who contacted him got sick. No one on the plane with him got sick. It is not "VERY" contagious without very close and intense contact (vomit, diarrhea, etc.)

a reply to: Phage

I think thats why it cant be contained. BUT It has spread and gained footholds because even their scarce resources were not used initially. WHY? Because no one believed the "hype".

Here is an example of a little paranoia saving countless people and another hot spot from being created because the threat WAS taken seriously early on and spotted.

As Nigeria heaves a collective sigh of relief after being declared free of Ebola, one woman is being widely praised for helping to ensure a more devastating outbreak was avoided.

Dr Stella Ameyo Adadevoh raised a red flag when attending to a Liberian patient at the First Consultant Hospital in Nigeria's main city, Lagos, in July.

Patrick Sawyer had just flown into the country, already sick - he should never have been allowed on the plane.

Nigeria had never had an Ebola case before so it was an impressive piece of diagnostic work.

www.bbc.com...

a reply to: tadaman

I think thats why it cant be contained. It has spread because even their scarce resources were not used initially. WHY? Because no one believed the "hype".

It has not spread from the region in which it started. It has not spread because it is not easy to contract it.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: tadaman

I am not saying we should condemn them for their cultural practices, its their choice.

The major reason the disease has become epidemic in the region is because of their cultural practices and the generally low level of health care.

IF protocol is followed it is manageable. If not, it is in its natural unhindered state VERY contagious.

Not without very close and intensive contact. Ducan's family did not get sick. No one being monitored who contacted him got sick. No one on the plane with him got sick. It is not "VERY" contagious without very close and intense contact (vomit, diarrhea, etc.)

Yeah, you said it phage. Their disqusting little lives cause their DOOM. How do you think we should handle this big mess anyways. phage.?
Do you think putting them into camps to separate the ones who have it?.
What about the ones that are here? You know, the disqusting ones that have the disease. Take them away and put into area's that are away from the public. You know. Like you said. People get the disease because of their cultural practices. No matter where they live. QUARENTEEN.

a reply to: Phage

phage, I dont know why you say that.
I am not really interested in a tit for tat where we post endless links to articles we didnt write.

I will just leave it at this: Thats not what I read. Thats not what the figures and data shows. Thats not what the WHO, CDC and major health organizations say.

It just isnt.

Have a good one.

a reply to: tadaman
The epidemic started in and around Liberia/Sierra Leone/Guinea. A specific region.
Where has it spread to? Where else is ebola epidemic?
Nigeria? Spain? North America?

Isolated cases are not an epidemic. Isolated cases are just that. In areas with good health care practices ebola cannot become epidemic because it is not easily transmissible without certain cultural practices. We don't bathe our dead. We have good health care.

a reply to: Phage

Disease outbreak news

9 October 2014
Ebola virus disease – Spain
1 October 2014
Ebola virus disease – United States of America
10 September 2014
Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of Congo
4 September 2014
Ebola virus disease outbreak – west Africa
30 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - Senegal
28 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
27 August 2014
Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of Congo
22 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
20 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
19 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
15 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
13 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
11 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - west Africa
8 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - West Africa
6 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - West Africa
4 August 2014
Ebola virus disease update - West Africa
31 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
27 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
24 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
19 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
17 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
15 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
10 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
8 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
3 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
1 July 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
24 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
22 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
18 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
10 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
6 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
4 June 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
30 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
28 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
24 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
15 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
12 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
9 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
8 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
6 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
2 May 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
28 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
25 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
22 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
19 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
17 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
14 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
10 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
7 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
5 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
3 April 2014
Ebola virus disease: background and summary
2 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
1 April 2014
Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update
30 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Liberia
30 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Guinea – update
27 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Guinea – update
26 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Guinea – update
25 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Guinea – update
24 March 2014
Ebola virus disease in Guinea – update
www.who.int...

a reply to: tadaman
Yes. In a limited area of west Africa it is epidemic. Notably Guinea and Liberia. We know that.

Isolated cases are not an epidemic. How many people are sick in Dallas? How many people who were on the plane with Duncan are sick?

a reply to: Phage

Sir, see it how you will. The WHO, CDC, UN and countless international officials are saying IT IS GOING TO AND IS currently spreading.
40% of all infections and deaths have happened recently. That is not indicative of a controlled situation.
But this is all doom porn until its in our own countries or our own lives.

People who think that their physical or social separation assures their safety are the ones to look down at the average slobs that have to take subways and work with hundreds of people a day and our UNDERSTANDABLE concern.

The WHO and UN are practically BEGGING for the resources they need to stop this by 6 months and contain it. They arent getting those things and those 6 month projections for control are dependent on those resources being in place soon - now.

a reply to: tadaman

The WHO, CDC, UN and countless international officials are saying IT IS GOING TO AND IS currently spreading.

No. The WHO, CDC, and UN are saying that the epidemic will continue in the regions it which it started and many more people will die there.

The WHO and UN are practically BEGGING for the resources they need to stop this by 6 months and contain it.

Tell me, are the WHO and UN calling for travel bans? Do the WHO and the UN agree with you that it is "VERY" easy to contract ebola?

a reply to: Phage

Crystal-ball gazing can be a dangerous affair, particularly as this is uncharted territory.

Previous outbreaks have been rapidly contained, affecting just dozens of people; this one has already infected more than 3,900.

But the first clues are in the current data.

Dr Christopher Dye, the director of strategy in the office of the director general at the World Health Organization, has the difficult challenge of predicting what will happen next.

He told the BBC: "We're quite worried, I have to say, about the latest data we've just gathered."

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the outbreak was raging in Liberia especially close to the epicentre of the outbreak in Lofa County and in the capital Monrovia.

However, the two other countries primarily hit by the outbreak, Sierra Leone and Guinea, had been relatively stable. Numbers of new cases were not falling, but they were not soaring either.

That is no longer true, with a surge in cases everywhere except some parts of rural Sierra Leone in the districts of Kenema and Kailahun.

"In most other areas, cases and deaths appear to be rising. That came as a shock to me," said Dr Dye.

www.bbc.com...

We dont have a basic understanding of how an epidemic works. Unless it IS contained, it is almost a certainty that it will spread. If it is not fixed at the source and guidelines and protocols arent followed then you will have the very thing epidemiology tries to avert.

There is too high of a mathematical probability to ignore that unless we do what the people who do this for a living say, that we will not have a localized epidemic, but a continental one. Then a global one almost immediately following that. This is all exponential in nature. Once a certain point is reached, containment is impossible. I forget the exact terminology in epidemiology but basically it is a point of no return.

As far as travel bans, they most certainly arent arguing against it. Its basic procedure to reduce the possibility of spread. Travel restrictions are quiet common for crisis management during an epidemic.

As far as its potential for infection. Well, we wouldnt have an epidemic if it wasnt highly infectious. Its hard to get, but also highly infectious. One doesnt negate the other. Its just a matter of following guidelines.... or not.

a reply to: tadaman

We dont have a basic understanding of how an epidemic works.

False.

Unless it IS contained it is almost a certainty it will spread.

Unless it is controlled at the source it is likely to kill more people in the region. And, the longer it continues in the region the more likely that it will spread to surrounding regions with poor health care. That is why getting the epidemic under control where it is is a high priority. The major concern (by a long shot) of the people that are involved is not in the epidemic becoming pandemic but of it killing more and more people in the region in which it is occurring.

There is too high of a mathematical probability that unless we do what the people who do this for a living say, we will not have an African epidemic, but a continental one, then a global one.

You quote Christopher Dye. Ok, here is more from him:

"We're confident that in North America and Western Europe where health systems are very strong, that we're unlikely to see a major outbreak in any of those places."

www.bbc.com...

Please show your calculations which convert "unlikely" to "a mathematical probability." Please show where the WHO or the UN has recommended travel bans.

a reply to: Phage

and this phage is why I cringe at the thought of getting into it with you. I tried to bow out respectfully.

Do what you want. This will be endless and I will admit you are more relentless than myself. The facts stand as we choose to interpret them. The truth on the other hand is that world leaders actions speak louder than words. They dont waste money on unprofitable ventures for fun or PR games. Perhaps their "sources" and calculations trump our own from our living rooms.

See it as you will. I am honestly not going to spend an hour arguing with you while we scrape the internet for bits and pieces to justify our limited POV. I am sure you glossed over tons of things that prove me right as well.

Have a good one.