Hypothetically: how long will ebola last after 90% are gone?

This is a question for the individuals more educated with the virus. Let's say we have a scenario that hits worst-case; 90% of the human population has perished.

We now have 10% of the population in hiding, or unable to become infected. How long would you say this strain could stay detrimental to the remaining population before it starts to decline?

Just how long would the survivors need to stay in hiding?

To further the issue, are there estimates you can give us that includes and excludes transition to and from other species?

I realise this is going to be a very rough guess, but I'm curious nonetheless.

originally posted by: Ghost147
This is a question for the individuals more educated with the virus. Let's say we have a scenario that hits worst-case; 90% of the human population has perished.

We now have 10% of the population in hiding, or unable to become infected. How long would you say this strain could stay detrimental to the remaining population before it starts to decline?

Just how long would the survivors need to stay in hiding?

To further the issue, are there estimates you can give us that includes and excludes transition to and from other species?

I realise this is going to be a very rough guess, but I'm curious nonetheless.

Effectively forever or at least in those places where animals exist that harbour the disease

a reply to: Ghost147

With a 65% mortality rate it can be expected 30%-40% will be left alive after it hits if everyone gets it. Since that won't happen due to people hiding or out of range, these numbers may go up further.
Very hard to determine actually because there are so many factors that contribute to survival after infection.

Ebola does have a shelf life but cleanup would be a massive task to complete for normality again.

a reply to: Ghost147

two things..

1. ebola will live forever...it lives in some unknown host that is unknown at this time but some theorize that that host is in kitum cave which is part of a mountain that i cant remember in africa

2. i think we are approaching a ebola is active in humans forever...not meaning we will all be killed but that there will be a constant state of ebola in a handful of people all over the globe

originally posted by: Ghost147
We now have 10% of the population in hiding, or unable to become infected. How long would you say this strain could stay detrimental to the remaining population before it starts to decline?

I think you answered your own question with this line.

Unable to become infected, which means basically immune. So once those survivors are the only ones left, the decline is over and humanity begins to rebuild itself...again.

... and when there are no clean up crews, and people are just wandering about, how long would the ebola stay in the bled/vomited on dirt, waiting to be stirred up in the dust... It's supposedly not that resilient from what I heard,(right?) but after all the mutations by then, I wouldn't bet that it'd stay that way. Makes for harsh exploring conditions.

I'm guessing that in this hypothetical situation, survival will depend on humans developing an immunity, and passing it down, biologically/genetically.

a reply to: japhrimu

There are already people immune to it. Just like there are people immune to AIDs and other types of disease.

Kind of sounds like this has all happened before:

Unexpected Inheritance: Human Genome Contains Ebola Virus Sequences

I can't help but wonder if there was an ancient Ebola pandemic that almost wiped people out. And yet Ebola is still around and still contagious.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Anthrax has been around for centuries and we are still here and flourishing.

Hell, we can't even kill each other off fast enough through warfare. 7 billion and counting....

Hmmm...I wonder who's the virus?

Ask the creators of the Georgia tombstones. They know.

Ebola will always be around there is no reasons to think that we could wipe it out at least not until we identify its reservoir nor is there any reason to think that it would wipe us out. The worst case scenario at this stage is not that it becomes pandemic (although that would be bad its just so highly unlikely that its not worth speculating on) but that it becomes endemic to West Africa. This is a much more likely event that will have far long reaching consequences then what is being currently considered.

Great answers! Just to clarify I was referring mainly to the ability to be able to begin to return to "normalcy", without the concern of contaminated residues. As japhrimu put it, the vomit/blood in the dust.

the current outbreak is only killing around 50% of those infected, maybe even a little lower.

even at 50% mortality rate, a widespread outbreak would be disasterous but seems higly unlikely.

if there was a huge outbreak i think i would be more worried about humans and their actions rather than the disease. There would be anarchy.

Military and cops are human and are not immune. They would loose control eventually with a widespread infection.

originally posted by: Ghost147
This is a question for the individuals more educated with the virus. Let's say we have a scenario that hits worst-case; 90% of the human population has perished.

We now have 10% of the population in hiding, or unable to become infected. How long would you say this strain could stay detrimental to the remaining population before it starts to decline?

Just how long would the survivors need to stay in hiding?

To further the issue, are there estimates you can give us that includes and excludes transition to and from other species?

I realise this is going to be a very rough guess, but I'm curious nonetheless.

It is extraordinarily unlikely that the incidence of death due to Ebola would reach 90% of the world population. Currently, 20.5 million people are living in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea--the three countries hardest hit by Ebola in W. Africa. The current death toll due to Ebola for these countries has only just topped 4000. So, total incidence of death due to Ebola against the total population of these three countries is 0.0002 or 0.02%.

That's not even remotely close to a 90% wipe out even in areas that are known to have sanitation issues and more along with a suspected animal reservoir (fruit bat) for the virus.

To entertain the possibility of Ebola wiping out 90% of the population is only to feed fear mongering at its worst.

previously the media reported that the death rate for this outbreak was slightly less than 50% .


Today it is being reported that the death rate is ow 70%. That is a huge jump.

It might not be long now before it is actually 90%

This is bad.

It would burn itself out in 3 to 4 months...